Dynasty Stock Market: January ADP Report

Ryan McDowell

Last off-season, I put together and took part in a total of forty-eight dynasty mock drafts in order to gather and present monthly average draft position data to our readers and dynasty fantasy football players everywhere. The process and presentation of the data proved successful, not only based on our readers’ interest level, but for my own teams as well. Because of that success, I’ve decided to continue the ADP work again this off-season.

Here’s what the process will look like each month. Beginning on or around the first day of each month of the off-season (January-August) I will gather interested parties to take part in six twelve team mock drafts. I typically fill those spots through Twitter, but there is also a sign up form located on our site.  From that point, I begin filling the six drafts with these dynasty addicts. Each league uses the same scoring and starting lineup format, which is as follows: PPR for all players with 4 points for passing touchdowns with a lineup of QB, RB, WR, TE and 4 Flex (RB/WR/TE) spots. We do not draft kickers or team defenses.

ajgreen_adpAs I said, I found this data to be very helpful last off-season. It aided me as I cultivated trades, planned my startup draft strategy and analyzed and evaluated my existing teams. One thing I did not do though is rely on this data as a crutch or the end all, be all. For example, I was occasionally offered trades last year with comments like “player X has a high ADP than player Y.” While I would consult this data in evaluating trades that I feel are very close, I would not go to this tool for each and every trade evaluation.

Now that everyone is familiar with the dynasty mock draft project, let’s begin to look at the results of the January drafts, which can be found here. There will be much analysis of these drafts all off-season long, but for this article, I’ll start at the top and take a look at the players being chosen as cornerstones of dynasty teams.

Here are the top twelve players according to January dynasty ADP followed by a few notes on the potential first round.

Name Position ADP
AJ Green WR 1.3
Josh Gordon WR 3.2
Calvin Johnson WR 3.3
LeSean McCoy RB 4.7
Dez Bryant WR 5.3
Jamaal Charles RB 6.3
Jimmy Graham TE 7
Julio Jones WR 7.2
Demaryius Thomas WR 7.8
Alshon Jeffery WR 11.5
Randall Cobb WR 12.3
Eddie Lacy RB 14

*One note before we get to my observations. You’ll likely notice that running back Eddie Lacy has an ADP that would put him outside of the first round of twelve team drafts with fourteen. While that would be the case based on numbers alone, he is still among the twelve players with the lowest ADP.

*The first thing that jumps out is the large number of wide receivers being selected in the draft’s opening round. Eight of the top twelve players are receivers, including the top three players. This supports the trend over the past few years of more and more dynasty owners building their teams around the career longevity of receivers rather than running backs. A few years ago, looking at the early rounds of a draft was like perusing a Where’s Waldo book, with Calvin Johnson playing the role of Waldo hidden amongst the mass of running backs.

*It’s also difficult to ignore the rapid ascension of Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon. The talented Gordon saw his ADP improve each month of last off-season, despite news of his two game suspension leaking in the middle of the summer. Owners using those early picks were rewarded with one of the best seasons we’ve seen in years. That has of course led to his dynasty value skyrocketing to the point where he’s now on par valuewise to Johnson, at least according to this data. I am sure some owners will still doubt Gordon at this high price due to his off-field history and the risk of being suspended for a full season upon his next serious infraction.

*Jimmy Graham is clearly the leader of the tight end class, based on his ADP of 7, easily besting the second tight end that we’ll see later. The gap in value between Graham and other tight ends is the result of many factors. Of course, last off-season, we saw the fall of Aaron Hernandez. Throughout the past year, we’ve seen the ups and downs of tight end Rob Gronkowski as he’s dealt with multiple serious injuries. We did witness some breakout seasons from young tight ends like Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas and Jordan Reed, but now each of these players seem to have doubts popping up which are negatively affecting their value.

*More than any other position, it seems dynasty owners are reactive when it comes to running backs. We are willing to forgive injuries or poor season from receivers or quarterbacks, as evidenced by both Julio Jones and Randall Cobb making an appearance in the first round. With running backs though, the collective groups of dynasty owners are chasing points and chasing our tails. As a result, it’s three of the top scoring running backs of 2013 that are being drafted as first rounders; LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy. I could feel good about both McCoy and Lacy, but would be leery of making the twenty-seven year old back coming off a season just shy of 330 touches my top selection.

*Finally, only one rookie from that class of 2013, which was expected to be a below average group. That, of course, is Green Bay running back Eddie Lacy, who totaled over 1,400 yards from scrimmage as he dominated the carries in the Packers’ backfield. For those of you who love to build your team around youth, don’t worry. There’s plenty more to come from that “poor” rookie class.

 

Name Position ADP
Giovani Bernard RB 14.8
Le’Veon Bell RB 17
Rob Gronkowski TE 17.5
Doug Martin RB 17.8
Antonio Brown WR 19.7
Cordarrelle Patterson WR 19.7
Adrian Peterson RB 20.2
CJ Spiller RB 21.2
Matt Forte RB 21.5
Aaron Rodgers QB 22.3
Brandon Marshall WR 23
Keenan Allen WR 23.3

 

*In this group that forms our second round, we have a potpourri of players. There are some veterans on the downside of their career, along with a few rookies. Also, each of the four offensive skill positions is represented in this group. So, there’s something for everyone regardless of your startup draft strategy.

*I mentioned Lacy as the lone rookie in the first round, but in this second group, there is four more joining him, among the twelve players. That gives us a total of five out of the top twenty-four, or about twenty percent of the top two rounds. Clearly, those of us who thought the rookie class of 2013 would be below average were wrong. Among the four second round rookies, there are two explosive backs who were active in their team’s passing game in Giovani Bernard and Le’Veon Bell. I was not the biggest supported of Bell during last year’s draft process, but he impressed me, especially with his durability and it doesn’t hurt his dynasty value that he’s the youngest starting running back in the league. There are also a pair of wide receivers, one who has clearly established himself as the top option on his team in Keenan Allen and the other who flashed major upside and has been called this off-season’s Josh Gordon, Cordarrelle Patterson. I don’t expect either of these players to slow down from what we saw this past season and both are very deserving of their second round startup pick status.

*I already mentioned the gap from the game’s top tight end Graham and now we have the second a few picks later with Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski made a triumphant return form multiple injuries that cost him the entire off-season and much of the regular season, but only lasted a few games before suffering a torn ACL. If it wasn’t for that, we could see two tight ends among the first twelve players chosen.

*We have the top quarterback coming off the board in the second round. The position doesn’t seem quite as deep as it appeared a year ago, so there will still be plenty of owners who choose the safe option of Aaron Rodgers in the second or third round, but this season also showed us how the late round quarterback theory can be fruitful. While that plan usually works better in redraft leagues, dynasty owners who stashed Nick Foles last year are very happy and have an extra chip to play with as a result.

*I mentioned how one down season or an injury can greatly affect the value of running backs, even more than other positions. We see more proof here. Both Doug Martin and CJ Spiller were consensus first round picks in dynasty drafts a year ago.  In fact, Martin was the top drafted player overall, according to our off-season ADP last year. Both players dealt with injuries this season. While Spiller had some nagging injuries that limited his touches and effectiveness, Martin’s season ended with a trip to injured reserve after suffering a torn labrum. While injured wideouts Jones and Cobb actually have seen their ADP improve from a season ago, the running backs have lost value as a result of their missed time.

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