The Next Alshon Jeffery

Jacob Feldman

jeffery

A week or so back I took a look at a few tight ends I think have the potential to break out in 2014 and join the TE1 ranks in fantasy leagues. The article was such a hit I decided to turn it into a series and take a look at each position in a similar fashion. In case you couldn’t tell by the title of the article, this week it is time to take a look at the wide receiver position and see which players have a chance to join the ranks of an every week fantasy starter in 2014.

If you missed the article on tight ends or need a refresher on the point, I’ll give you a really quick recap of what I’m looking at in these articles. In order to qualify for placement on this list, the player needed to be in the league in 2013, meaning there will be no 2014 rookies on this list. They also need to be someone who has never been a consistent fantasy starter. The final characteristic is they have a chance to reach every week starter status (in this case at least a WR2) in 2014. There will of course be a few rookies who make the leap in time as well as a few players who require another year or two before they make the leap that are left off this list.

The majority of these players, especially those in later tiers, are destined to fail in 2014. This is simply a list of players to take a deeper look at and consider adding as high upside fliers if you can add them at a reasonable price. The players within the tiers are in alphabetical order.

Most Likely

Tavon Austin (STL): There really isn’t any other way to describe Austin’s rookie season other than calling it a disappointment. He was one of the top rookies drafted in virtually all leagues this past year and people surely expected more than 40 receptions for 418 yards with another 151 on the ground. Hopefully you didn’t give up on him because there are some extremely promising signs for Austin’s future success. First off, he’s a true homerun hitter. Even with his limited touches, he had four plays of over 50 yards this season. The second is his failures were more a fault of how he was being used than anything else. In seven games with Sam Bradford as his quarterback, Austin had six games with five or more targets. In the games without Bradford, Austin only had five or more targets twice. The talent is huge. If the Rams actually use him properly, he could explode in 2014.

Michael Floyd (ARI): Of all of the players on this list, Floyd is the one who was closest to being an every week starter in 2013. In fact, for teams with weak wide receiver groups, he might have been a starter already. Floyd’s major issue at this point is inconsistency. In half of his games this season he was held to under 50 yards. This really wasn’t his fault though. Arizona struggled to protect an aging Carson Palmer which drastically limited the passing game of the Cardinals. If they can upgrade their offensive line and keep Palmer upright and in the pocket, Floyd could easily take the next step. If whispers of the Cardinals trading future hall of famer Larry Fitzgerald Jr. end up playing out, that next step for Floyd could be a gigantic leap. He has the skill set of a top receiver on an NFL team.

Marvin Jones (CIN): Jones burst onto the scene in the end of October with his eight catch, 122 yard, four touchdown performance. We warned not to consider him an every week starter just yet, and I hope that you listened. It took him the next five games to surpass just one game. Over those five games he had 11 catches for 149 yards and just one touchdown. He just wasn’t seeing the playing time needed to be a fantasy starter. That changed during the last three games and the Bengals playoff game. Jones saw at least seven targets in each of those games, making at least five catches. He also played the vast majority of the snaps opposite AJ Green.  If he can keep the role, a 2014 line of 80 catches, 1,100 yards and at least six touchdowns is easily within his grasp.

Cordarrelle Patterson (MN): Patterson was one of if not the best kick returner in 2013. Unfortunately for his owners, he really wasn’t used much on offense until very late in the season. He flashed great athletic ability, but he also made plays that reminded us of just how raw his skills are. He struggles running routes, can’t read coverages for hot routes, and wasn’t always successful beating press coverage.  He has massive upside, but of the players in this tier he has the most work to do this offseason. His quarterback play is also a major concern and depending on what happens, it could be 2015 or later before he reaches his full potential.

Rueben Randle (NYG): Like the rest of the Giants offense, Randle didn’t have the 2013 season that was expected of him. For the entire offense, I think 2013 was a fluke. They should be back as at least an average if not above average unit in 2014. One major difference is Randle will be an every down player in 2014 and be given a chance to shine. He should slide into the Hakeem Nicks role in the offense and flourish. He has the talent to put up numbers like Nicks did in 2010 and 2011. Randle’s upside isn’t the highest in this tier, but he is the most likely to be a consistent fantasy starter in 2014.

Less Likely

Riley Cooper (PHI): Few players had the ups and downs of Cooper this year. He entered last off-season as the third wide out, was nearly run out of the league for an off the field incident last summer and then became an every down player when Jeremy Maclin went down. The fourth year wideout is very athletic but was extremely inconsistent with four games over 85 yards and seven under 30 yards. His free agent status adds another question mark, but the Eagles are likely to resign him. With Nick Foles as the Eagles quarterback, Chip Kelly has adjusted to include a bit more of a passing game making the number two receiver more viable. He won’t be a top ten receiver, but with the high flying offense, he could sneak into the top 20 next year.

Aaron Dobson (NE): If you’ve watched any of the recent Patriot games it is very obvious they are missing a talented outside receiver. Julian Edelman has easily been their best receiver over the last few weeks, but his skill set fits better as an inside receiver running slants, not going down the sidelines. Dobson on the other hand has the perfect skill set to be that outside deep threat that the Patriots haven’t had since Randy Moss left. Dobson struggled with injuries this year, but he also showed off his physical tools at several points in time. There’s still a lot he needs to work on, but if he gets healthy and gets serious this offseason he could be a force next year as Tom Brady’s outside man while Edelman and Danny Amendola work the middle.

Justin Hunter (TEN): With Kenny Britt leaving in free agency and Nate Washington starting to decline, there is a very clear spot for Hunter to step into. He should be no worse than third on the depth chart in 2014 and could easily push Washington out of the starting lineup. Talent wise, Hunter was top three in the 2013 draft class, but he also had a lot to work on, including maturity and toughness. He’ll be a consistent fantasy starter at some point down the road, but it might be a bit too much to expect it as soon as next year. This is especially true with the coaching changes and other changes to the roster around him.

Emmanuel Sanders (PIT): Sanders was a part of one of the least respected receiver groups in the league. If you read my work, you know my opinions on Antonio Brown. Sanders makes up the other end of that duo and had solid value in PPR leagues this year as well. He’s currently a free agent, which is what lands him on this list. If he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a target monster and deadly weapon in the slot on a high flying offense. Of course staying in Pittsburgh or landing on a run first team will doom him to WR3/WR4 territory for the next few years.

Terrance Williams (DAL): It is highly likely Miles Austin has played his last game as a Cowboy. With a massive salary and an inability to stay on the field, he’s likely to be cut. That leaves a hole opposite Dez Bryant and Williams is ready to step up. He has a lot of talent, but the concern for Williams is upside due to his situation. With Bryant and Jason Witten as well as running backs getting a lot of targets, it is fair to wonder if he’ll get consistent targets each and every week. He could frustrate owners with inconsistency from one week to the next. With how much the Cowboys pass there’s a decent chance his season totals will be in the top 20 fantasy receivers in 2014.

True Longshots

Chris Givens (STL): A popular sleeper pick heading into the 2013 season, Givens hit a sophomore slump. Losing his starting quarterback half way into the season definitely didn’t help matters. All of the reasons to like Givens are still there. He has game breaking speed, good hands, runs crisp routes, and has good chemistry with Sam Bradford. The problem, which is common to most of the Rams’ offense, is the team needs to figure out how to use his talents effectively. Until they figure it out, he’s little more than a WR4 but with WR2 upside.

DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): I’ve always been a little lower on Hopkins than most because I didn’t think he had a very high ceiling. He certainly hit the ground running in 2013 and put together a decent rookie year. The problem for me is I’ve always viewed him as more of a compliment than a lead receiver on an NFL team. His ceiling is a WR2 and the mess at the quarterback position is very likely to delay his rise. I’m not expecting much more than what we saw as a rookie in 2014, but there is an outside chance the rookie quarterback the Texans bring in will have an Andrew Luck type of rookie season and get Hopkins to low end WR2 or high end WR3 levels next year.

Denarius Moore (OAK): Moore has talent, but has yet to play a full 16 game season over the course of his three year career. His career highs of 51 catches, 741 yards and seven touchdowns came in 2012 on 15 games while playing on the mess that is the Oakland offense. 2014 is a contract year, which should motivate him to play through some pain and show exactly what he can do. The biggest concern is who will be throwing him the ball. The chances are slim he’ll be near many starting lineups next year with Matt McGloin or Terrelle Pryor throwing him the ball but stranger things have happened.

Da’Rick Rogers (IND): Of the longshot group, Rogers is the only one with WR1 upside. He’s a true lottery ticket. The talent is immense and he has one of the best young quarterbacks in the game throwing him the ball. He’s also extremely raw, has maturity issues, and needs to learn how to play wide receiver in the NFL.  It is very telling that in two playoff games he only saw a total of two targets while underwhelming talents like LaVon Brazill and Griff Whalen saw thirteen each. He has a long, long way to go before he is a starter in the NFL and the chances are very slim he makes it. If he does, watch out!

Ace Sanders (JAX): Sanders came on strong over the last seven games with 35 catches even though he was still learning the offense. If he works hard this offseason he could improve upon that pace, making him a valuable PPR asset in 2014. What makes him a long shot is his value is directly tied to Justin Blackmon.  If Blackmon keeps his nose clean and gets back into the starting lineup, that kills any value Sanders had. If Blackmon screws up this offseason and is cut by the Jaguars then Sanders has an outside chance to be a low end WR2 in PPR leagues playing as a starter opposite Cecil Shorts.

That’s it for my list of fifteen wide receivers who might be looking at a breakout in 2014. Who are your favorite breakout candidates for next season?

jacob feldman