The Next Jordan Cameron

Jacob Feldman

cameron

The NFL has gone through a transformation over the last five to ten years. That is hardly new news to any of you. The days of the big, bruising power running game with the massive full back in front followed by the bell cow running back are all but gone. Sure, there are still a few examples of this in the league, but there are many, many more examples of running back by committee, pass first spread styles of offense. Teams such as Denver and New Orleans are perfect examples of the transition the NFL is going through.

One of the key lynch pins of these new styles of offense is the dynamic, athletic pass catcher. The wide receivers are of course important, both out wide and in the slot, but the key piece that separates the great offenses from the good ones is the tight end position. This has made the ultra-talented tight end the new golden egg of the NFL, taking over for the bell cow running back of the last fifteen years. Players like Jimmy Graham can completely change the complexion of a game with their ability to create mismatches.

Given the difference between someone like Graham and the rest of the position, the elite tight end has also become one of the more sought after pieces of a fantasy lineup as well. Even with some injury issues, Graham more than doubled the twelfth best tight end tight end in fantasy points this year. That is a major advantage week in and week out. The result of this disparity has been a near frenzy by fantasy owners to discover the next big tight end.

Tight ends are rarely fantasy studs as rookies, so owners often need to be patient. They instead need to look to players who isn’t instant successes but that will sudden emerge as a dominant player in their second or third year, kind of like Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas did this past year. Of course there were lots of others we expected great things from in 2013 and they let us down for one reason or another. Players like Jared Cook, Delanie Walker, Dwayne Allen, Robert Housler, Kyle Rudolph and many others were the ones we expected to suddenly break out and they didn’t do it.

The biggest question is how do you tell if someone is more Cameron or more Housler? No one really knows quite yet but allow me to lay out some of the potential heirs to the breakout tight end throne. I’ll also give you a few others that should be on your radar as you plan for next year and listen to offseason reports, but are less likely to be the next big thing. Names are in alphabetical order, not in any kind of ranking.

The Heirs Apparent – Most likely to make the jump next year

Dwayne Allen (IND): Coming out of the 2012 NFL draft, Allen was one of my favorites. He is much more talented from an athletic perspective than his teammate, Coby Fleener. He was one of the better route running tight ends coming out of college in the past few years and he has ideal size and athleticism for the position. I expected the Colts to run a lot of two tight end sets much like the Patriots when they had their dynamic duo at the tight end position. His rookie year was pretty good but an injury cut his 2013 season off before it even began. If he can come back healthy, I’m expecting great things from him in 2014 and beyond.

Zach Ertz (PHI): My second favorite rookie tight end in the 2013 draft class, Ertz has all of the skills that you look for in a pass catching tight end. He has great size, good hands and above average athleticism for the position. The problem for Ertz comes down to just one thing – he’s a pretty terrible blocker. That’s a major issue because in Chip Kelly’s run first system, a tight end who can’t run block is a tight end sitting on the bench. This was often the case for Ertz as he watched lesser talents of Brent Celek and James Casey play because they could block better.   If he can fix this issue with his game, he could easily become a star as soon as 2014 in the high powered offense of the Eagles.

Ladarius Green (SD): Coming out of college in 2012, if you called Green raw, it probably would have been a compliment. He has freakish athletic ability but his route running and blocking skills were almost non-existent. They were so bad in fact that Green has seen a total of only 21 receptions over his first two years in the league even though he was healthy. After two years in the league, he still has an awful long way to go if he’s going to turn into a top tight end in the league. Antonio Gates is fading and has definitely lost a step, but he’s still better than most. If Green hopes to take over for the future hall of famer or even share the field, he needs to continue to refine his game. It is a long road, but he has the best raw talent of just about anyone on this list. The upside is huge.

Jordan Reed (WAS): Reed was my favorite of the 2013 tight end class and my favorite of this group. I feel that he is built in the mold of Aaron Hernandez when it comes to on the field play. While his blocking is only average, his ability to get separation from defenders and then to make plays once he has the ball in his hands was definitely on display during his rookie year. During his eight healthy games this year, Reed racked up 44 catches for 487 yards and three touchdowns. He had at least five targets in all but one of those eight games and his chemistry with Robert Griffin III was shocking given the limited time they were together. The only item that will hold him back is health. He missed a chunk of the offseason with nagging injuries before missing the whole second half of the year with a concussion. He’ll be back next year and ready to go, but health concerns are the only thing stopped him from being a lock for TE1 production. He’ll be a PPR beast if he can stay on the field.

Cousins of the King – Players we already know about, but something is holding them back

Charles Clay (MIA): Billed as more of a fullback than a tight end coming out of college, Clay had a pretty good year in 2013, his third in the league. The Dolphins used him as more of an H-back and he caught 69 passes on the year. He is athletic enough to be a tight end and has good size for the position, but his route running and hands are both questionable. In my eyes his production this year was more a product of the situation than a product of his talent. The Dolphins could easily find a more talented replacement, but the potential is high for him in PPR leagues as long as they stick with him.

Tyler Eifert (CIN): The top tight end on a lot of boards this past spring, Eifert had a decent (but not great) rookie season. He didn’t take over the starting role from Jermaine Gresham this season as many expected he would. When I look at Eifert, I see someone that is above average in all facets of the tight end game, but he doesn’t wow me in any of them. I think it is very likely that over the next year or two he becomes a top fifteen tight end, but I don’t know that he will ever be a top five tight end. He just doesn’t seem dynamic enough to me to be a Jason Witten or Tony Gonzalez type of player. He is still young and learning though, so time will tell.

Travis Kelce (KC): One of the fastest rising tight ends of the 2013 draft class, Kelce was the choice of many to be the next dominant tight end. He never got a chance to see the field though as he went down with a knee injury that required microfracture surgery to fix. That means we didn’t get to see him in the pros. In college he was one of the best blocking tight ends and he also possessed great hands, catching almost everything thrown his way. Unfortunately he isn’t the most athletic of tight ends and there are definite health concerns that cloud his future.

Kyle Rudolph (MIN): The Kyle Rudolph break out has been predicted for each of the last three years. Unfortunately for him, his owners, and Vikings fans he hasn’t topped 500 yards yet. 2013 was looking like it would be the best year yet until injuries caught up with him. I’m of the belief that Rudolph’s biggest issue is his quarterback play. He has the talent to be a top ten tight end, but he doesn’t have a quarterback that can get him there. Until the Vikings invest in something better than the Christian Ponder/Matt Cassel mess they have been in, Rudolph isn’t going to be a top tight end on a consistent basis.

Timothy Wright (TB): Wright put together the best season out of all rookie tight ends this year with 54 receptions for 571 yards and five touchdowns. It was a promising start as he was playing for his former college head coach and seemed to have good chemistry with fellow rookie Mike Glennon. The problem I have with Wright is that he seemed to be a product of the system not a special talent. I think it was largely due to his former college coach being the head coach that he was given a chance, and while he made the most of it, he isn’t a true starter in the NFL. He just doesn’t have the skills set to be one. I don’t see much room for growth out of Wright as his ceiling is fairly limited in my eyes. I wouldn’t expect anything more than what we saw in 2013.

Long Lost Relatives – True long shots

Ryan Griffin (HOU): Griffin wasn’t invited to the 2013 NFL combine, but his college play was strong enough to make him a sixth round pick anyway. He showed why late in the season when he started a few games due to injury to the other tight ends. He had 14 catches for 176 yards over the last three games of the season. I think he is the most talented young tight end on the Texans roster. He did suffer a concussion earlier in the year, but he has nice athletic ability and has shown an ability to block. I like his chances to be the starter once Owen Daniels moves on.

Vance McDonald (SF): Vernon Davis will start next year on the wrong side of 30 and has a lot of wear on the tires. He’ll still be around for a while though, which limits the upside of any other tight ends on the roster. With that said, the 49ers like running two tight end sets when they have the talent to do so. McDonald has the talent to be another dynamic weapon for them to work into the game plan. He has great size and good athleticism, but he sometimes seemed to lack focus and drops a pass from time to time. Like most other young tight ends, he struggles blocking as well.

Adrien Robinson (NYG): Robinson was a very interesting choice in the fourth round of the 2012 NFL draft. He didn’t do much at all in college, but his physical abilities were off the charts! Just a small taste, he ran the 40 yard dash in 4.56 seconds while weighing 264 pounds. The problem with him is that he’s more athlete than football player. The Giants have been trying for two years to teach him how to play football. So far he hasn’t recorded a catch. Next year will be make or break for him. The upside is massive, but there’s probably a ninety percent chance that he’s never a startable tight end. He’s a true lottery pick!

Taylor Thompson (TEN): Another lottery ticket based on athleticism, Thompson is a converted defensive end. He didn’t play any tight end in college and has only nine receptions over his first two years in the pros. Like Robinson, his ceiling is huge but it all comes down to how quickly he can learn the position in the NFL. He’ll be entering his third year in the league next year, which is pretty much the make or break year for tight end prospects. Huge upside but he is definitely a long shot.

Luke Willson (SEA): Good size and great athleticism are all wrapped up in the nice neat package that is Willson, the ‘other’ tight end to come out of Rice in 2013. He actually out produced McDonald during their rookie year in the NFL even though Willson was drafted several rounds later. Willson might be the more physically talented of the two, but he doesn’t run routes or catch like McDonald. If he can improve those parts of his game, he could be the starting tight end for the Seahawks and Russell Wilson as soon as Zach Miller moves on or is pushed aside.

That’s my look at fourteen tight ends who should be on your radar in one way or another. Obviously the majority of these will never amount to anything in terms of fantasy football, but spend a little bit of time looking over a few of them and consider a speculative add on a long shot or two who you like more than the rest. The chances are slim, but if it pays off you just ended up with next year’s Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron just for putting in a claim in January. Good luck!

jacob feldman