The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

forte2

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. What do you think Matt Forte is worth on the open market?  He ranked as the #3 running back in our league and I would expect that to continue at least one more year. What could I expect to get for him in terms of players or picks? I need receiver help and have the 1.02 and 1.07 picks in 2014 draft.Glen in NY

2013 was a bit of a renaissance for Chicago running back Matt Forte.  He posted career highs in rushing yards (1,339), receptions (74) and receiving yards (594), tied his previous high of 12 total touchdowns and recorded his second best yards-per-carry average (4.6).  The union between he and new head coach Marc Trestman was clearly a fruitful one, as Forte ran and caught his way to a robust 340.3 PPR fantasy points in standard scoring settings.

With that said, it’s tough to ignore the elephant in the room – age.  Forte recently turned 28 years old, and ball carriers with his type of previous workload typically don’t sustain fantasy success into their late twenties.  So while I don’t envision Forte falling off a metaphorical cliff this off-season, it’s tough to deny that the end of his exemplary career is in sight.

Regardless, the numbers don’t lie and Forte remains one of the best fantasy players at his position.  He’ll probably still be selected in the second round of off-season startup drafts, and as such you should receive value commensurate with that likelihood.  Therefore I wouldn’t settle for anything less than receivers such as Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd or Percy Harvin should you choose to do a one-for-one swap.

However, I’d offer up an alternative solution instead – why not trade your draft pick(s) for receiving help?  Once the NFL Combine is in the rearview mirror those picks will appreciate in value, and when your league holds its rookie draft their worth will be at its apex.  As such it wouldn’t surprise me if you could obtain a quality receiver for the price of what amounts to a top-dollar lottery ticket.  You’ll also be able to hang onto your RB1 for another year, thereby enhancing your chances to win it all in 2014.

2. My 12-team, non-PPR league uses a cap of contract years – 65 years per team. I have several players with expiring contracts this season and only a few mechanisms to keep them – two one-year contract extensions and one franchise tag that opens the player up to the offseason free agent auction, but repays me with a first round pick from the winning bidder if I lose him. Head Coaches score 10 points for a win and -5 for a loss, and I can only roster two. Who do I extend and who do I tag of the following players/coaches: Drew Brees, Vernon Davis, DeAngelo Williams, Riley Cooper and Bill Belichick.Paul in British Columbia

First things first, I think there are two obvious “cap casualties” here – Panthers’ running back DeAngelo Williams and soon-to-be free agent receiver Riley Cooper.  Though Williams had a decent year (he was the RB21 in non-PPR formats), he will be 31 before the 2014 season begins and there are no guarantees he’ll be back in Carolina.  Though Cooper is a tougher snub, he was too dependent on scoring (an unsustainable 36.5% of his points were from touchdowns) and even if he returns to Philly, the Eagles seem likely to look for additional receiving help via free agency or the draft.

Now that we know who you should be keeping, let’s figure out the manner in which you’ll do so.  For starters, I’d want to ensure 49ers tight end Vernon Davis remains rostered, so I’d choose to give him one of your two contract extensions.  Despite missing a game Davis was the TE2 in non-PPR formats, and really seemed to forge a connection with quarterback Colin Kaepernick.  He’ll more than likely be your starter at the position.

I’d also want to hang onto New England head coach Bill Belichick.  Given your league’s unique format, having a top-flight head coach is a huge boost to your team’s weekly output.  Belichick’s Patriots haven’t had fewer than 10 wins since the 2003 season, and their aggregate record over that time is 138-38.  Given your scoring system, Belichick scored a whopping 1,190 points, or 6.8 per game over that period – he provides the same type of “mismatch” as other positional studs.

This leaves Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees, who would be my choice for your franchise tag.  Brees is a stud, no doubt, but signal callers represent the deepest position in all of fantasy and therefore carry less relative value in smaller formats.  I have little doubt you’ll be able to find a replacement if you lose him, and the first round pick you gain will more than mitigate the loss of one of fantasy’s preeminent quarterbacks.

3. As my fantasy league has entered the offseason I was scanning the waiver wire. Which of the following players has the best overall value in your opinion? I have one roster spot to fill without needing to drop anyone, and I’m looking at Knile Davis, Jonathan Franklin, Edwin Baker, Latavius Murray, Mikel Leshoure, Jermaine Kearse and Griff Whalen.Alex in WA

Once again I’m going to choose to work through this one backwards, starting with the players I think you should definitively leave on the wire – Edwin Baker, Mikel Leshoure, Jermaine Kearse and Griff Whalen.  Baker had a nice three-game run in Cleveland at the end of the season, but my guess is the Browns will look to upgrade the position in the off-season.  Leshoure is the low man on Detroit’s totem pole, and won’t ever truly flourish unless he finds a new locale.  Kearse and Whalen are benefitting from injuries, but will likely be pushed to the background when Percy Harvin and Reggie Wayne return, respectively.  You can do better for your final spot.

Chiefs running back Knile Davis and Packers ball carrier Jonathan Franklin are more intriguing, but both appear slotted for nothing more than change of pace duties for now.  With that said, Davis was a third round pick and Franklin was a fourth round selection, signifying the faith their respective teams initially placed in them.  If you can find a way to rid yourself of any other roster deadweight, I’d want to pick up one or both of these players – when the talent is there, the opportunity will eventually present itself, and both players could be future starters for you.

However, given your stated trajectory the player I’d want to scoop up is Raiders running back Latavius Murray.  Murray essentially used 2013 as a “redshirt” season, as he was placed on injured reserve during training camp.  However, given the contractual state of the Oakland backfield he could very well end up as the starter come 2014.  Murray boasts an impressive size/speed combo (6’2”, 223 pounds with a 4.40-second 40-yard dash), and while his upright running style leaves him susceptible to injury the talent is there.  For an end-of-bench stash, I think Murray offers the best combination of talent and situation, and I would ultimately place him above the others.

4. In my 12-man, non-PPR league I am a Knowshon Moreno owner and don’t know what to expect out of him next year. I also have Marshawn Lynch, Ben Tate and Mark Ingram, and traded away my first round rookie pick – I would like to get another back. Should I sell high on Moreno over the offseason?Ray in NJ

Selling high is a relative phrase.  For example, even though Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno finished as the non-PPR RB5 this year, my guess is you won’t receive anywhere near that value on the open market.  Unfortunately, despite his transcendent year there’s just too much uncertainty surrounding the Denver ball carrier.

As we all know, the Broncos drafted University of Wisconsin running back Montee Ball in the second round of the 2013 draft.  After a slow, fumble-ridden start to the season, Ball finished strong following Denver’s bye week with 65 carries for 420 yards (6.5 yards-per-carry) and three touchdowns, while also chipping in 18 receptions for 118 yards.  It became apparent both coaching and management wanted to see what they had in their rookie back, and his playing time increased accordingly.

Ball’s strong play could ultimately wind up spelling the end for Moreno’s tenure in the Mile High city.  Given quarterback Peyton Manning’s ability to turn virtually any ball carrier into a star, it’s understandable that prospective buyers are wary of Moreno’s uncertain future.  After all, can he possibly have the same type of success on another team with another signal caller?

The short answer is “probably not,” but that’s where I’m choosing to break from the narrative.  While Moreno isn’t an elite talent, 2013 isn’t his first brush with fantasy viability.  He was the non-PPR RB16 in 2009 and the RB17 in 2010 (he injured his ACL in 2011), despite sharing a backfield with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow respectively – neither of those players could be confused with the future Hall of Famer Manning.  In leagues that require multiple ball carriers, he was a surefire weekly starter.

So even if Moreno’s option isn’t picked up and he finds a new team, I firmly believe he’ll retain his fantasy relevance.  However, there’s just no way you’re going to approach his true worth in a trade market governed by apparent short-sightedness.  Therefore I’d advise you to hang onto Moreno for the time being – your current ball carrying corps behind Marshawn Lynch is nothing to write home about, so I think you’d be better served standing pat and revisiting any potential trade scenarios next season.

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eric hardter