Grading our 2013 Predictions: Part One
Each and every year we take a moment towards the end of August to poll our staff and ask what they think is going to happen during the following fantasy season. We ask a variety of questions ranging from who they think will be the fantasy MVP, fantasy rookie of the year and just about everything else. If you want to see the exact picks and explanations for them, you can go ahead and take a look at part 1 and part 2.
In case you don’t want to go back and see all of the details, I’ll do the heavy lifting for you with a nice little wrap up of our predictions that were made back in August. Just for fun, bragging rights and some good natured ribbing, I’ll also name a prediction champion as well as award the “swing and miss” title for the year! After all, none of us can be right all of the time!
The nominees for each award are the players who our writers predicted back in August with multiple votes shown by the numbers. The list would certainly be different if they were allowed to pick now, but that wouldn’t be as much fun.
Fantasy MVP Nominees: Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson (2), David Wilson, CJ Spiller (2), Michael Vick, Jimmy Graham (3), Adrian Peterson (4), Dez Bryant (2)
The fact that Wilson, Spiller and Vick received four of the sixteen votes this past August for the most valuable fantasy player should remind you a bit of just how big the hype machine was for those three back in August. Wilson was expected to be the next big superstar, Spiller was supposed to finally push Fred Jackson into the background and Vick was going to lead the high scoring Chip Kelly machine.
None of these even came close to being true. In fact, the very futures of Wilson and Vick are very much in question for very different reasons. Time is starting to run out for Spiller, who is going to be 27 before next season. For perspective, that is the same age as Jonathan Stewart. Just some food for thought. In addition to those three, I’m also going to toss out Bryant, Peterson and Johnson since none of them were the top at their position this year.
The Case for Charles: Andy Reid going to Kansas City was expected to be a boost for Charles’ value, but few expected just how big it would be. Charles was just short of 2,000 combined yards with 19 total touchdowns and 70 receptions out of the backfield. In PPR and non-PPR leagues alike, he was easily the best non-quarterback. His performance in the fantasy playoffs also deserves a mention. He single handedly propelled a lot of owners into the fantasy championship with a historic 215 yards, eight catches, and five total touchdowns in week 15. He also had nearly 30 PPR points in week 14 and over 25 points in week 16.
The Case for Graham: It’s a little sad we have stopped being as amazed by tight ends who produce like wide receivers. After a few years of it, we almost seem to expect a tight end to produce like a top ten receiver. This year Graham would have been in the top seven receivers while no other tight end is in the top 20. The difference from Graham to the next best tight end (Tony Gonzalez) was nearly five points a week. When you add in the fact Graham did all of this while missing significant parts of many games this season with nagging injuries, it becomes even more impressive!
2013 Fantasy MVP: Jamaal Charles
Honorable Mention: Peyton Manning is really the only player who could have stood a chance against Charles, but I think Charles’ fantasy playoff run might have still won him the award. One point for Chad Scott in my completely meaningless scoring system and I’m going to deduct a point for the misses on Wilson, Spiller, and Vick… just because I can!
Fantasy Rookie of the Year Nominees: Giovani Bernard (3), Eddie Lacy (6), Kenbrell Thompkins (3), Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenjon Barner
Out of all of the awards, this one had more repeat votes than any of the others. More votes doesn’t always mean it is a better choice. Outside of Barner, Thompkins is the least deserving on this list. Neither player ended up doing much of anything for their teams over the second half of the season, which is when you expect a rookie to be stepping up a bit. Hopkins also faded a bit down the stretch, seeing a shrinking role and getting caught up in the quarterback and coaching turmoil in Houston. He still has a bright future, but he just doesn’t belong in the discussion for this award.
Austin and Patterson certainly flashed their dynamic talent this season with breathtaking returns and playmaking ability. The problem for both of them is their teams struggled to figure out how to get them involved in the offense outside of little bubble screens or go routes. The upside for both players is huge, but they didn’t do enough this season to merit consideration.
The Case for Bernard: Bernard had 170 carries this year for 695 yards while working in a committee for the Bengals – that’s a respectable 4.1 yards per carry. Where he really showed his value was in the passing game. His 56 receptions were top ten for running backs even in part time work. If he gets another 75-100 carries, we are talking about someone that should top 1,500 combined yards. The question is if he will get them and if he can hold up with an increased workload.
The Case for Lacy: Lacy produced a top ten season at the position as a rookie even though he missed virtually all of two games with a concussion. He lead all rookies in carries (284), rushing yards (1,178), and rushing touchdowns (11). He was also reasonable productive in the passing game with 35 receptions. He showed good toughness playing through an ankle injury towards the end of the season and only had one fumble on the whole season. He did have a few clunkers while playing with backup quarterbacks, but he should be a very solid fantasy asset for years to come.
2013 Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy (it really wasn’t a close contest)
Honorable Mentions: Keenen Allen for leading all rookie receivers in every category as well as Zac Stacy for being just slightly behind Lacy in all categories. Points go out to Jarrett Behar, Mark Rockwell, Chris Rohrer, Dr. Scott Peak, Brian Bulmer and Eric Hardter for their choice of Lacy. Swing and misses go out to Thompkins and Barner picks on this one.
Most Overvalued Player Nominees: Tavon Austin (2), Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Andrew Luck, Alfred Morris (2), Trent Richardson, Cam Newton, Doug Martin (2), Shane Vereen, Mark Ingram, Aaron Rogers, Steven Jackson, Lamar Miller
This is a tough award to pick a winner on because overvalued is such a subjective term. It’s time for me to use the good old process of elimination to help narrow down the list. Peterson, Luck and Newton all had respectable seasons that were top seven at their position which fits with where they were valued prior to the season.
I’ll give Rogers a pass due to the injury. Foster also had a nice six games at the start of the season before going down with injuries, so we’ll give him a bit of a pass with a caution flag for now. Austin also gets a pass because all rookies require patience and he flashed enough that he could definitely end up being worth every bit of his picks this last year.
Ingram was terrible, but I don’t think he had a ton of value in the eyes of most at the start of the year. Jackson was definitely worse than expected, but he was actually a decent RB2/flex play over the last few weeks of the season to help people get into and advance through the playoffs. Vereen missed most of the season and is somehow more highly valued now than he was before. I still think he’s vastly overvalued.
Miller was a major disappointment this season as well, especially with the hype train that came with him, but it was as much due to his lack of usage as his production. Miller did average over four yards per carry and had 26 catches in limited use. Morris was also a disappointment from his top ten ranking at the position due to a drop off in his carries and touchdown totals. He finished outside of the top 20 running backs in PPR leagues and really struggled in the fantasy playoffs. His 4.6 yards per carry on the season are definitely spectacular, though.
That leaves us with just two options, both of whom were top five picks in just about every startup this past year:
The Case for Richardson: My feelings towards Richardson are well documented such as this article from early October. He fell off even more from his terrible pace at the start of the season. He ended outside of the top 30 running backs in PPR leagues even though he was on the field for all 16 games. Given that he was in the discussion for a top three overall pick in just about every startup draft this past year, that is a major disappointment. I don’t even know if he’s an RB2 moving forward.
The Case for Martin: Martin’s failures would have been front page news on just about any other season, but he was just one of many terrible seasons by high profile running backs. He failed to surpass 15 PPR points in any of his six games this season and scored only once. His 3.6 yards per carry was a major disappointment as well. What people don’t entirely realize is that it isn’t too far off his 2012 season without the week nine explosion. He’s more of a low end RB1 or high end RB2 type.
2013 Most Overrated: Trent Richardson Was there ever any doubt? The fall from grace was historic!
Honorable Mentions: The list of major disappointments was long this year. CJ Spiller, Ray Rice, David Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Justin Blackmon and lots of others could be discussed. None hold a candle to Richardson, though. Chris Rohrer gets a point for nailing him with misses for the choices of Peterson, Luck and Newton.
Most Undervalued Player Nominees: Pierre Garcon, Chris Givens (4), Larry Fitzgerald, Bryce Brown, Kendall Hunter, Greg Jennings, Joique Bell, Mike Williams, Kenny Britt, Tony Romo (2), Jermaine Gresham, TY Hilton
This is quite the interesting list of nominees when you look at it as a collective group. It’s a mix of young players who seemed to have good opportunity mixed with older players coming back from injury or just down seasons. You also have a few players who just seem to fit into the always undervalued category.
A few of these players, with the 20/20 vision that is hindsight, seem to fit into Dennis Green’s wheelhouse of being what the masses thought they were. Here’s a link to the press conference just because it makes me giggle. Leading vote getter Chris Givens definitely fits into this category for now as did Brown, Jennings, Hunter and Gresham. None of them had good seasons, but they pale in comparison to the disaster that is Kenny Britt.
Romo was typically being drafted in the 8-12 range for quarterbacks which is pretty much where he finished in most leagues. Mike Williams hardly had his season begin before it was over due to injury, so I’m going to toss him out as well. Of the three receivers remaining, Hilton finished as a middle to low end WR2 which was just a bit over where he was drafted and Fitzgerald’s fantasy value was really only saved by his ten touchdowns on the season.
The Case for Garcon: I highly doubt there was anyone last August who would have pegged Garcon as the season leader for receptions (113) and targets (184). He was eighth in receiving yards on the season with 1,346 yards. The only complaint for him would be the relative lack of touchdowns as he had only five on the season. He was drafted as a WR2 at best in most leagues, so a top ten finish in PPR leagues was a nice surprise. There are some long term concerns here given the coaching and likely game plan change, but this award is about 2013.
The Case for Bell: If you were asked back in August to name the one team that was going to have two running backs in the top 15 in fantasy scoring, how long would it have been before you guessed the Lions? The 27-year old once again played a backup role in 2013, but few players did it better than he did. He managed 1197 combined yards on the season and eight touchdowns to go with his 53 receptions, making him a true find in PPR leagues and a high end, though slightly inconsistent RB2. His 30 plus points in PPR leagues during the fantasy championship in week 16 surely won a few championships (including one against me).
2013 Most Undervalued: Pierre Garcon
Honorable Mention: Some credit really needs to be given to Antonio Brown for his great season. He went from low-end WR2 value in startups to at least top three scorer at the position in 2013, if not the best. The consistency of posting at least five catches and more than 50 yards in all 16 games was a huge plus as well. He really needs to be in your top ten rankings going forward. He isn’t as flashy as some, but you can’t deny the quality of his season. Another point to Chad Scott for the Garcon pick while Britt gets the only swing and miss point on this one because he was just that bad.
At the current point in time, Chad Scott and Chris Rohrer are tied for the lead with two completely meaningless points apiece. We’ll see if they can hold on to the lead when we look back at part two of the predictions.
Who do you think deserves the awards we mentioned?
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