Over/Under: Alfred Morris

Eric Olinger

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Welcome to another installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player and determine some projections based on past tendencies and then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. The criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.

This week’s debate will focus on Redskins running back Alfred Morris. For our debating purposes we will put his line at 1,300 yards rushing and 9.5 touchdowns.

If you’re active on Twitter, you have undoubtedly come across one of those debates that just flood your timeline. A debate that borders on being heated, but is well presented by both sides. One that sways the masses with each new tweet that pops up. That is what I’ve seen a few times now when someone brings up Alfred Morris’ value. People either completely buy-in and unequivocally support him or they view him as the most recent beneficiary on the long list of “system runners.”

So. what can cause a heavily featured, second year running back who rushed for 1,610 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in his rookie year to have doubters? In a simple two word answer: Mike Shanahan.

“Shananigans” have derailed more seasons than Terrell Owens in year two of his contract. The constant tinkering of ball carriers, evident by looking at his leading rusher each year since taking over as Head Coach of the Broncos in 1995, and his almost arrogant attitude of proving to everyone he’s smarter than them has ruined countless fantasy seasons as well. The names Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, and Roy Helu are all cemented in fantasy football history because of him and none were first round picks. With the exception of Clinton Portis, who he traded for cornerback Champ Bailey after back-to-back 1,500 yard seasons, none were considered “special” talents coming out of college. Besides possible future Hall of Famers in Portis and Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson was the only one to have multiple 1,000 yard seasons under Shanahan and they were five years apart.

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At this time last year, Morris was considered a long shot to even make the team unless he was open to a position change to fullback. They said he lacked NFL-caliber talent and his 4.68 forty yard dash was too slow to translate to the pros. As Redskins rushers fell to injury throughout training camp and preseason, Morris kept improving, eventually catching the eye of Shanny – that’s all it took.

When week one rolled around, Morris, a rookie from Florida Atlantic, was the starter. They ran him hard, giving him 28 carries for 96 yards while he added two touchdowns. From that point on, it was certain; Shanahan had unearthed another hidden gem. The pinnacle of his rookie season was during the playoff berth clinching week 17 game against the hated division rival, Dallas Cowboys, when he exploded for 200 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries.

Fantasy footballers and dynasty league owners now find themselves at a familiar crossroads – year two of a Shanahan running back. To make matters worse, “Mad” Mike couldn’t help himself and drafted another late round rusher in this year’s draft in the form of Chris Thompson. According to Shanahan, “(Thompson) would have been a first or second round talent if not for his (ACL) injury.” I’m not concerned about Thompson’s presence at all. I don’t think a 5’7”/192 pound player coming off an ACL injury is a serious threat to Morris’ early down work load, but this is Mike Shanahan. We’ve seen it happen.

When it comes to Alfred Morris’ outlook for the upcoming season, I’m going to take the under on yards and the over on touchdowns. I really like Morris and I’m not concerned about the “Shananigans,” but what I am worried about is his deficiency in the passing game. I think the Redskins will work in another back on third downs, be it Roy Helu or Thompson, who each offer some explosiveness catching the ball. That’s not Morris’ game. He finished the year with a very Michael Turner-like 11 receptions for 77 yards. It is also doubtful the Redskins plan on handing him the ball 335 times again. You also have to factor in the possibility of Robert Griffin III not being 100% for week one and Kirk Cousins being the starter. While that means Morris would probably get more carries as the team’s focal point, he would also get more attention from defenses. Bottom line, expecting him to repeat a 1,600 yard campaign is unrealistic.

Even with fewer carries and a possible running mate in the backfield, I expect Morris to finish with around 1,200 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns as the team’s battering ram. He is still an elite option as a RB1 and barring injury, there’s no one on this team going to knock him off the top of the depth chart. If you’ve been a Michael Turner fan over the years, you should enjoy the similarities in Morris’ game. According to Ryan McDowell’s ADP tracking, Morris has held an average draft position of 19.5 throughout the off-season, between Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte, as the RB10 in dynasty startup drafts.

So, what do you think about Alfred Morris’ outlook for 2013? How are you viewing the “Over/Under” of 1,300 yards rushing and 9.5 touchdowns? As always, tell me what you think in the comments below.

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eric olinger
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