Is Arian Foster Cursed?
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No, I’m not talking about scorned fantasy owners poking needles into their Arian Foster voodoo dolls following his week 16 fantasy championship clunker. I’m referring to arguably the biggest fear (since ACL recovery times seem to be improving) dynasty owners face with their stud ball carriers – “The Curse of 370.” In layman’s terms, “The Curse of 370” states that running backs who have 370 or more carries in a given season are likely to fall off a statistical cliff in ensuing years due to being overworked. This means that not only will they play less efficiently, but they’ll also be more susceptible to injury.
So how does this relate to Foster?
He has just now concluded his 2012 regular season with 351 carries (not quite 370, but as Cynthia said to Agent Cooper in Red, “this is happening either way”) and 40 catches, for a total of 391 touches. This isn’t even taking into account the usage he’ll receive in the playoffs, as Houston is locked into at least one more game. However, as Calvin Johnson has recently proven, curses (albeit some more abstract than others) are meant to be broken. With that in mind, it’s time to look into the likelihood of whether Foster can overcome his own jinx.
While it’s not 100% effective to directly compare one player to another, past precedence is the only thing to work with in this case. In that spirit, the following analysis will look at running backs in the past ten years who ran the ball approximately 370 or more times in a season and how their subsequent numbers fared relative to those before they were “cursed.” Depending on the results, the players in question will be deemed as having had positive responses, negative responses, or, for various reasons, neither (outliers).
As always, factors such as age and previous utilization will be taken into account in this investigation, although determining which data to include was an “objectively subjective” process. In general, the only years included were those where the running back’s usage fit his general career trend, almost always occurring when the player in question was starting. Exceptions are explicitly noted, with rationale given. So without further preface, it’s time to attempt to forecast Foster’s fate.
Positive Responses
LaDainian Tomlinson
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Second
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 398 (339 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Interpretation:
Not only did LT not succumb to “The Curse,” he actually had his best rushing average (5.3 ypc) in 2003, the year directly following his 372-carry season. As shown in the table above, Tomlinson also continued to show a combination of good health and improved numbers throughout the duration of his remaining seven years with the Chargers. The likeliest conclusion to draw here is the concept of a direct correlation between age/cumulative usage and the effect of the curse. Tomlinson’s “cursed” season was only his second in the league, when he had a mere 339 carries to his name. It’s probable that a combination of youth and fresh legs helped LT stave off any kind of immediate statistical letdown.
Adrian Peterson
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Second
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 257 (238 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Interpretation:
Peterson’s inclusion in this list isn’t necessarily fair, since he averaged 5.63 yards-per-carry in his rookie year as a “co-starter,” which also doubles as the only year before his “cursed” season. Natural regression was expected, although AP still averaged over 4.4 yards per carry in the three subsequent years after 2008. Then 2012 happened, and Peterson proved to us all that he is indeed a superhuman, averaging 6.03 yards per carry en route to a 2,000-yard year, both career bests. This shows that Peterson has bounced all the way back (and then some) from his 2008 campaign, and because of this only his 2012 statistics will be used for the “after 370 carries” YPC cell. With all that said, the numbers speak for themselves, and AP has proven yet again that young running backs with light workloads can ultimately break the Curse.
Chris Johnson
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Second
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 294 (251 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Interpretation:
Johnson is another tough player to gauge, as he posted otherworldly statistics in his first two seasons. In fact, during his 2009 season, Johnson actually set the NFL record for most yards from scrimmage. In this case, some amount of regression would be expected. While CJ2K’s numbers have dipped in recent years, he’s back up to 4.5 yards-per-carry in 2012, despite dealing with the combination of Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker under center. Because he is still improving years after his “cursed” season, only his 2012 statistics were used in the table above. So despite the overall decrease in yards-per-carry, Johnson has remained healthy despite increased usage, and can therefore be categorized as having a positive response.
Negative Responses
Jamal Lewis
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Fourth
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 799 (720 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Rudi Johnson
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Third
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 259 (232 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Interpretation:
Johnson’s numbers suggest a dichotomy of sorts, in that his games played and touches per game averages increased following his “cursed” season in 2004, while his efficiency decreased. The first part could be explainable by the fact that Corey Dillon was entrenched as the Bengals’ starter until he got hurt in the third contest of the 2003 season, leading to Johnson’s involvement in only the subsequent 13 games – this would skew the “average games played” number before his “cursed” season, since it was the only year which fell into that category.
It’s tough to place Johnson because he broke the 1,400-yard barrier again in 2005, showing a greater efficiency than in his 2004 season. This was likely due to a combination of age and relatively low usage. However, 2005 was also Johnson’s final season averaging above 4.0 yards-per-carry, and he ultimately faded into oblivion just three seasons removed from 2004. For that reason, Johnson is considered to have been touched, if only slightly, by the Curse.
Shaun Alexander
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Sixth
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 1,557 (1,382 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
While Alexander appears to offer up a pretty open and shut case, it should be noted he carried the ball 353 times in 2004, the year before his “cursed” season. Even despite that, he still set career bests in 2005, when he hit 370 carries on the nose. Most notable in Alexander’s case is that he was 28 years old during that season and already had precious little tread left on his tires (1,557 cumulative touches already). It’s unsurprising his numbers fell precipitously in his final years, suggesting that older running backs with previously heavy workloads are less inclined to survive the Curse.
Larry Johnson
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Fourth
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 532 (476 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Interpretation:
LJ appears to be in a class of his own, as he had a relatively lesser amount of total touches before his 2006 season, but fizzled out almost immediately after. It’s likely due to the fact he had a whopping 416 (416!) carries in his “cursed” season, which in addition to being an extraordinary amount, actually represented 47% of his career carries to that point, despite Johnson being in his fourth NFL season. This increase in usage likely provided a pronounced shock to his physical wellbeing. Needless to say, Johnson missed 12 total games in the following two seasons, and his yards-per-carry average in 2007-2009 dropped by 28%. In fact, he only averaged 176 carries during those years, which was a full 200 fewer than what he averaged in 2005-2006. Suffice it to say, Larry Johnson embodies and defines the Curse of 370.
Michael Turner
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Fifth
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 286 (274 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Interpretation:
It would be disingenuous to compare Turner’s pre-2008 statistics to his numbers in 2010-2012, as he was strictly LaDainian Tomlinson’s caddy with the Chargers. Therefore, the above table has been slightly modified to show how Turner’s 376-carry season in 2008 (with the Falcons) compares to what he’s done since. While his yards per carry haven’t dropped dramatically, Turner has received nearly five fewer touches per game. He also missed five games in 2009, again lending credence to older players struggling with injuries following high-usage seasons. While it’s likely that Turner’s steady decline is due in large part to Father Time’s influence (as well as a changing Atlanta offense), it’s still noticeable given his sparse utilization prior to being “cursed.”
Outliers
Ricky Williams
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Fourth (2002), Fifth (2003)
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 946 (814 carries)
Stats during 370-carry seasons:
Interpretation:
Though Williams’ largest workload in the years following his 2002/2003 seasons wound up being only 241 carries, it’s tough to draw a logical conclusion about whether or not he succumbed to the Curse. “Reefer Ricky” was forced to sit out both the 2004 and 2006 seasons due to violations of the league’s drug policy, and never regained a true starting job in the NFL. This lesser usage in his later years, combined with the two years off, could help explain how his running efficiency actually increased late in his career. However, it should be noted that Williams’ rushing average dropped by 1.3 yards in the season immediately following his 383-carry campaign, though he did stay healthy enough to set a career high in carries (392).
Edgerrin James
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: First (1999), Second (2000), Seventh (2005)
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 2,307 (1,972 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Interpretation:
Despite how it looks at first glance, James actually offers up evidence both supporting and disproving the curse. While ESPN’s seasonal statistics only go back to 2002, the individual player statistics go back even further. When perusing James’ player profile, one can see that 2005 was actually the third time he carried the ball 360 or more times in a season. In 1999 and 2000, James’ first two seasons in the NFL, he carried the ball 369 and 387 times respectively. It’s true he missed time due to injury in the following years (only six games played in 2001, and an average of 11 games played in 2001-2003), but his subsequent efficiency remained the same (and actually better in 2004). A younger James appeared to have survived the Curse.
Old Man James, however, is a different story. Following his third year of approximately 370 carries in 2005, he only started two more seasons, failing to crack 4.0 yards-per-carry in either. However, at this point in his career, he was in his late twenties and already had over 2,000 carries to his name. One mitigating factor could be that he was no longer playing in the Indianapolis backfield with one of the all-time greats in Peyton Manning, but as already seen above, there does appear to be a direct relationship with age/cumulative usage and the effect of the Curse.
The Man in Question
Arian Foster
NFL season when 370 carries occurred: Fourth
NFL touches before 370-carry season: 845 (710 carries)
Stats during 370-carry season:
Comparative statistical analysis:
Since we don’t yet know what Foster’s future holds, the above table has been tweaked, this time to compare his 2012 numbers to statistics in previous years. While Foster was already experiencing a slight statistical regression the past two seasons (4.9 ypc in 2010, 4.4 ypc in 2011), it’s fair to wonder how much this current drop to 4.1 yards per carry has to do with usage. Though his overall touches are down, this is due to a drop in catches, not carries.
In his age-26 season, with 710 totes already under his belt, Foster has exceeded his previous high in carries by 24, or slightly more than a full game. This rate was even higher going into week 16, when Foster exited early due to an irregular heartbeat. While there are mitigating factors (40% turnover on the offensive line), it’s fair to wonder if Foster is beginning to wear down.
Graphical Analysis
Removing Ricky Williams (two missed years), Edgerrin James and Shaun Alexander (significantly more cumulative carries before their “cursed” seasons) from the analysis, a definitive trend can be observed. Factors considered include what season each player was in when they received (roughly) 370 carries, as well as how many carries each had prior to that season. Each of these factors is weighted equally (0.5), for a maximal additive value of 1.0.
For example, Michael Turner was in his fifth year when he received 376 carries, which is the largest value of the group. Therefore he receives a score of 0.5 for the “years in league” category. LaDainian Tomlinson was only in his second season when he received 372 carries, so he would receive a score of 0.2 for the same category.
Jamal Lewis paced the group in the “prior carries” category with 720, which will therefore denote a score of 0.5. Tomlinson, conversely, had only carried the ball 339 times before his “cursed” season, which is roughly 47% of Lewis’ 720 carries. LT is therefore assigned a score of 0.24 (47% of 0.5) for “prior carries.” The additive effect of each player’s scores for “years in league” and “prior carries” will denote the Y-values for the graph.
The corresponding X-values in the graph correlate to the previously calculated percent change in yards-per-carry following each player’s “cursed” season. These values can be found in the lowest right-hand cell under each player’s “comparative statistical analysis.” All of this is summarized in the following table, and subsequent graph:
As for Arian Foster, we now have enough data to predict his future. Foster’s Y-value (fourth year in the league, 710 prior carries) of 0.89 can now be plugged into the equation for the trend-line. Doing so suggests that Foster’s statistics will fall off by a whopping 34.2% over the duration of his career! Of course, this is inexact, especially considering the afore-mentioned exceptions. The R2-value of the “best-fit” line is a horrific 0.57, so take that number with a humongous grain of salt. After all, it’s unreasonable to expect Foster’s game to bottom-out worse than a guy (Lewis) who went to jail mid-career, after all. However, the warning signs are too much to ignore.
Conclusion
Again, these types of predictions are, by their nature, inexact. It’s irrational to compare players directly to one another, but unfortunately that’s the best we can do in situations like these. So while the math above is skewed, it still likely paints a broad stroke in the correct direction.
Based on the data from all the players analyzed, Arian Foster appears to be on the wrong side of the “Curse of 370.” His 2012 season was his fourth in the league, occurring when he was already 26 years old. Moreover, his rushing average has already dipped in successive years, by nearly a full yard. In early November I posted that Arian Foster was the best dynasty sell, and I stand by that even more now than I did then. Foster’s days as an elite dynasty asset now appear, well, cursed.
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