IDP Spotlight: Dannell Ellerbe

Steve Wyremski

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The off-season is about scouring the wire for upside and pillaging teams of their undervalued assets. It’s the way dynasty leagues are won. One of the best places to find value from an IDP perspective is a scheme change or free agency movement. Considering those two factors and the 2013 free agency movement, Dannell Ellerbe is a prime candidate for pillaging with his transition to the Dolphins.

Upon Ellerbe’s signing with Miami, it was initially unclear what linebacker spot he would play with Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett manning the two most productive IDP starting spots. That was quickly resolved with the release of Dansby hours after the Ellerbe signing. With Dansby out of the picture, the new Dolphin slides into the middle linebacker spot and is a certainty to play every down in 2013.

As a result, Ellerbe is positioned for increased snaps in 2013 from his 667 regular season snaps with the Ravens in 2012. Even with inconsistent snaps last season and a few missed games, Ellerbe put together a nice breakout season finishing around LB26 and a solid LB2/LB3 option for IDP owners. What’s important to remember with this finish is that he performed that well without playing consistent snaps until week is when Ray Lewis was injured and missed significant time to close out the year. Based on that, anyone looking at Ellerbe’s straight 2012 numbers as a strong basis for 2013 expectations is significantly undervaluing Ellerbe. His production was phenomenal as a starter.

While we need to look beyond the final statistics, to build an expectation for Ellerbe’s 2013 production, the best starting spot is his 2012 production by game incorporating his snap count. Here is his 2012 production broken down:

2012 Season Breakdown

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From the above breakdown, we can see in his snaps that as soon as Ellerbe obtained the starting inside spot due to Lewis’ injury, he performed at a high level. He was productive on a per snap basis in spot duty during the first few weeks of 2012, which was a positive sign, but it wasn’t clear just how productive he could be until week seven when he was a starter. Most notably, when he played every down or close to it, he was a top tier option.

Here is how his season breaks down further considering:

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What’s clear in the above is that whether you look at Ellerbe as a starter, every down linebacker (close or slightly less than 100% of snaps), or at 100% of snaps, he produced at a borderline LB1 level. Given that he’s currently ranked by many in the LB25 range, he is a value target who should outperform that draft position. In fact, in our DLF IDP Dynasty League amongst the staff, I left Ellerbe on the board to see where he’d be drafted and he was selected as the LB30.

Some may argue that Ellerbe is changing schemes moving from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 defense, so he may struggle. I’d argue that he’s moving from an inside linebacker spot on a team where there were a significant number of playmakers on defense to a team with fewer playmakers which should result in an increase in tackle opportunities.

With the Ravens, it was clear he wasn’t the leader on defense with Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs in the mix. With the Dolphins, he has the opportunity to step up, become a leader with Cameron Wake, and morph into the focal point of a young defense. The guaranteed money of roughly $17 million makes that clear.

In Summary, to give an indication of IDP value and where Ellerbe may be headed, Dansby has been a solid LB1 for IDP purposes as a member of the Dolphins. There’s no reason why Ellerbe can’t match that given the production exhibited with the Ravens in 2012. After all, his production as an every down linebacker as a member of the Ravens in 2012 mirrors that.

Statistics sourced from ProFootballFocus.com

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