Dynasty Capsule: San Diego Chargers
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers
After nearly breaking into the elite group of quarterbacks, over the last several seasons Rivers has experienced a downward trend in both fantasy and reality. One of his major problems has been consistently turning the ball over. While he did cut back a bit on interceptions this past season, he had a career high in fumbles (13). It didn’t help that his offensive line didn’t provide much protection (Rivers was sacked a league second high of 50 times), but I’m about two years past the point of making excuses for him.
Rivers was once known for his big arm, but now he is notorious for his big head. There are few streakier players at the position, and he can often he can be his own worst enemy. If things aren’t going in his favor, it’s hard for him to stay mentally tough and get back in the right mindset.
He signed a seven year deal keeping him in San Diego through the 2015 season. There were some rumors of the Chargers trading him, but when new Head Coach Mike McCoy took the position, he did so with the intention of working with Rivers. I don’t see him going anywhere just yet.
Rivers’ value in fantasy leagues is stuck in somewhat of a dynasty purgatory. In his past, Rivers has shown enormous potential, but now owners want to count on him as their QB1 because of his inconsistencies and turnovers. Not long ago, Rivers was a top prospect climbing up the charts and being discussed as one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but that time is long gone. You would most likely have difficulty trading him right now, and probably have little desire to acquire him. For owners, your best bet is to hold and hope the coaching changes in San Diego give him a fresh start and some new looks. Addressing the offensive line wouldn’t hurt, either. Perhaps if he has hot streak and a good start to the season, you can get people to reminisce of the time he was knocking on the elites’ door. Just don’t be surprised if people don’t bite.
Charlie Whitehurst
Whitehurst was drafted by the Chargers in the third round of the 2006 draft and still has yet to have a starting gig or NFL experience beyond some spot starts. He has thrown a total of 155 NFL passes over the last six years, and in the majority of his NFL seasons he never even saw the field.
As bad as Rivers seems to be when he is caught in one of his downward spirals, Whitehurst is no threat. There have been rumors of Whitehurst’s release, which would certainly mean the Chargers would have to bring in another option or two, though it is doubtful it would be anyone to give Rivers any real competition.
Running Backs
Ryan Mathews
Since being drafted in 2010, Mathews has never played a full season. Thus far, he’s averaged just over 12.5 games per year. Unfortunately, this is truly the primary factor in discussing his potential in the NFL. Despite this heavy concern, San Diego has long since envisioned him as the lead back for their offense.
Mathews posted a very solid 2011 campaign showcasing his capabilities. Imagining the kind of fantasy impact he could have over the course of an entire season had dynasty owners often drafting him in the first round of startup leagues last season. Around this time last year, Mathews was considered a top running back option before even proving he could fill the bell-cow role and stay healthy. In 2012, however, his production when he was on the field was mediocre at best. He only broke 100 yards from scrimmage two times and scored just a single touchdown all year. This, paired with his multiple collar bone breaks, led to a very disappointing season for owners who had high sky-high expectations and were counting on at least weekly RB2 production.
For these reasons, Mathews could be a steal in drafts this year or a great buy low target. We have seen his potential, and he remains a receiving threat out of the backfield, giving him a slight boost in PPR leagues. The Chargers still want to give him a chance to be the guy they drafted and he enters the 2013 off-season with essentially no competition for touches thus far. The biggest question for him at this point is if he can remain on the field to get them.
Curtis Brinkley
Brinkley had a very limited role last season. He had the least amount of carries of all four backs on the active roster, and totaled just 34 rushes for 115 yards. At the moment, Brinkley’s contract has expired, though he is a restricted free agent. The Chargers will definitely sign backs in the off-season who will be a bigger part of the game plan than Brinkley. He is not a worthy fantasy contributor and belongs on your waiver wire.
Ronnie Brown
Brown is coming off of a one year deal with the Chargers and is a free agent entering the off-season. However, it is a distinct possibility he stays in San Diego. He was used consistently in third down situations last season to keep Mathews fresh, and possibly because the Chargers began to realize Mathews couldn’t take the beating of a bell-cow back. Brown was a consistent receiving threat out of the backfield and led all Charger backs in receptions (49) and receiving yards (371). He did a great job filling this role and the Chargers would be wise to keep him around.
Despite his consistent role, however, he was never truly a fantasy impact back. Even when Mathews was injured, the Chargers used a RBBC approach and Brown was limited to just 46 carries all season. Even if Brown isn’t re-signed in the offseason, it is likely the Chargers will bring in a similar complement to Ryan Mathews to fill this role.
Wide Receivers
Robert Meachem
Boy, can things change in a year. During free agency last year, Meachem was the talk of the Chargers’ camp after signing a four year deal averaging about $6 million per year. Following Vincent Jackson’s departure, people were quick to knight Meachem as the player who would fill the primary receiving role in this offense. Funny story – he finished the season with a total of 14 receptions for 207 yards. Apparently signing a big contract doesn’t automatically equate to higher production.
Meachem may currently be one of the most grossly overpaid receivers in the NFL, but lucky for him, his 2013 salary is guaranteed and thus he is not at risk of being cut this off-season. He will have to vastly pick up his game in order for the Chargers’ management to justify continue paying his lofty salary beyond the 2013 season.
Malcom Floyd
Floyd was another Chargers wide receiver who signed a four year contract, though its relative value for the organization was much more favorable. There were never any games he truly rewarded fantasy owners, but he was a consistent contributor in the offense. Over the course of the season, he constructed a decent yearand finished with 56 receptions for over 800 yards.
This doesn’t quite make him a consistent fantasy option, but he has certainly been involved a good deal in the offense. The question is, will his role be diminished with the return of Vincent Brown?
Danario Alexander
Philip Rivers may not be the best quarterback in the league, but he isn’t afraid to take chances and is definitely able to support a fantasy option or two. After losing their top receiver to free agency and Vincent Brown due to injury, there was certainly room for someone to step into a producing role. After not playing for the beginning of the 2012 season, Danario Alexander exploded onto the fantasy scene with 134 receiving yards and a touchdown in week ten. Almost overnight, he became Rivers’ go-to receiver and averaged nearly six receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown for the remainder of the season.
In 2012 Alexander was playing on a one year contract, though he enters the off-season as a restricted free agent. It was highly expected the Chargers will retain this 6’5” 220 pound target following his breakout season, but they surprisingly assigned the original-pick tender to him, meaning they can match any offers he gets, but would receive no draft pick compensation should another team sign him. At 24 years old, he is currently the most valuable receiver on the Chargers’ roster (assuming he is re-signed) and is capable of high production for fantasy owners in the future.
Vincent Brown
At 5’10” and 190 pounds, Vincent Brown’s expectations have been quite the opposite of his small build. Ever since his rookie season, the coaches have had nothing but high praise for him. Big expectations started looming in preseason last season before he broke his ankle. Unfortunately, this injury caused him to be sidelined for the entirety of the 2012 season.
Due to his injury, Brown could very well be overlooked in many leagues. He has had great value relative to his ADP at this point for startup leagues, or could be a great buy low target this offseason. He flashed some huge potential in 2011, and it is very possible he ends up starting across from Alexander this year.
Editor’s Note: We recently sat down for an interview with Brown. Click here for the full written and audio versions.
Eddie Royal
In 2012, Royal had extremely limited playing time. He was yet another off-season signing who wasn’t a major contributor in the offense. Of the three, Royal is the most likely candidate to be released because of his lack of contribution and relatively expensive salary. The Chargers don’t really need him following the emergence of Alexander and the expected return of Vincent Brown.
Tight End
Antonio Gates
Something strange happened in San Diego last season. Antonio Gates, a player who has been plagued with injuries in recent years, played almost every game last year. He was a decent red zone threat for Rivers, but his overall production dropped, despite playing in more games. In his tenth NFL season, he posted 49 receptions for just 538 yards and seven touchdowns.
Gates has long been a dominant force at the tight end position, but he is beginning to show signs of slowing down. Perhaps this is the beginning of a slow “changing of the guard” process.
Ladarius Green
Gates will be 33 at the start of the 2013 season, and despite his unusual healthiness last season, his lingering foot issues and other ailments have unlikely disappeared for good. Randy McMichael is actually older than Gates and Dante Rosario’s playing time has been meager at best. Enter Ledarius Green, a 22 year old beast. He is an athletic tight end who fits the new breed shaping offenses in recent years. Green possesses all of the physical tools to eventually be a full-time starter in the NFL, and after a full-season of development, he could be in line for a larger role next season. After being drafted in the fourth round of last year’s draft, there is little doubt San Diego wants him to be the heir to Gates.
