Dynasty 101: Surviving and Conquering your Initial Draft

Eric Hardter

homework

Editor’s note: This article is one in a series of articles geared towards the Dynasty Football World Championship contest sponsored by our friends at FFtoolbox.com. This is the world’s first dynasty fantasy football contest designed to reward the long term, successful dynasty coach and crown a Dynasty King!  Find out more about the Dynasty World Championship at DynastyKing.comand be sure to check FFtoolbox.com’s articles, tools and rankings for sports beyond fantasy football, including Baseball, NASCAR, Golf and more!

The Dynasty 101 series is geared towards those who are new to the format.  The concluding installment discusses important tips for how best to approach and handle your inaugural dynasty draft.

In the previous segment of Dynasty 101, I discussed the importance of knowing your league’s rules and provided a streamlined approach to researching players.  With the combination of that information in hand, I presented a primer on how best to go about crafting a tiered ranking list.  Now, the final installment in this series will cover how to approach your initial dynasty draft.

The biggest possible advantage you can bring to the table over your competitors is that it won’t (well, shouldn’t) actually be your first draft.

Come again?

Consistently participating in post-Super Bowl mock drafts is arguably the best type of “off-season” research you can do.  DLF’s own Ryan McDowell sets up a series of six mock drafts at the beginning of every month (for announcements on the formation of such drafts, follow Ryan on Twitter) and they’ve served as an invaluable resource and mainline to the pulse of the dynasty community.  Not only do these “pretend” drafts supply us with the all-important ADP data, they also show pertinent player movement as time passes and we edge closer to the start of the NFL season.  Finally, mock drafts are a great opportunity to test different strategies, which will give you an idea how your team might look depending on your preferred tact.

When it comes time for your official draft, you should be experienced and ready with a refined strategy predicated upon a mixture of the ADP data and your own personal rankings list.  It’s critical to use both sets of data, as relying on only one is the quickest way to overdrafting a player you’re targeting, or missing out on him altogether.  These two lists should exist symbiotically, affording you a much needed link between your draft aspirations and the potential reality of them occurring.

fftoolbox.com

fftoolbox.com

In a perfect world, the two lists would align, enabling you to select your preferred players at a point commensurate with their respective ADP’s, as well as the tier in which you ranked them.  However, this isn’t always the case.  A “run” on a certain position can cause a shift to the averaged data, and frankly, ADP data simply can’t take into account the whims of a “rogue” owner.

If it comes to a point of uncertainty, it’s imperative to trust your gut.  Overdrafting a player you want is not the largest drafting faux pas you could make, especially considering the fact he could be on your team for ten plus years.  However, you should ensure that when you “reach” for your preferred target, you do so within reason.

Early in the draft (around the first four to five rounds), you should try to adhere to the ADP data within approximately “half a round.”  In other words, if your league has 12 owners, try not to overdraft a player by anymore than six to eight picks.  Though this might entail making a pick you’re not crazy about, it also leaves you with the ability to obtain value on the trade market equivalent with the point of selection.

When the draft reaches its adolescence (approximately rounds five through twelve), it’s common practice to “reach” a round to a round and a half over the ADP data.  Usually at this point, the draft has moved past the traditional “studs” and into the range of players who elicit a strong gut response.  When it comes to those you have strong feelings about, it’s better to overextend than to be left hanging.

The end of the draft represents a sort of “free-for-all” scenario.  This is the point where you should be rostering players with the highest upside, be it backups to injury-prone players, or promising young athletes stuck at the bottom of their depth charts.  In these circumstances, ADP values can be thrown out the window and age can be used as a definitive tiebreaker.  The final two rounds (and final two rounds only) should be reserved for your defense and kicker.

Getting back to the concept of overdrafting, the numbers can dictate scenarios where ignoring the ADP is forced upon you – these are the cases where mathematical probability will influence who you pick, and this is directly related to where you pick.  For example, let’s consider a 12-team league, and highlight owners who pick at the beginning, middle and end of the draft:

Team

1st Round Pick

2nd Round Pick

3rd Round Pick

4th Round Pick

Longest Wait (# of Picks)

A

1

24

25

48

23

B

6

19

30

43

13

C

7

18

31

42

13

D

12

13

36

37

23

Though picking at either extreme has its advantages (i.e. back-to-back selections), it also comes with the pitfall of having a prolonged duration between picks.  Therefore, drafting outside the scope of the ADP can become a necessity.  If Team D wants a player with an ADP anywhere between approximately 14 – 35, they’ll have to use the first pick in the second round, as they won’t pick again until #36 overall.  Ditto for Team A.  Relative to Teams B and C in the middle, teams at the top and bottom of each round are also more susceptible to positional “runs.”  According to the ADP data, if Team A doesn’t select a running back with the first pick, they’re looking at getting, at best, the overall RB12 (David Wilson) at pick 24.

One way to mitigate this extended inactivity is through in-draft trading.  While this technique works best with a slow draft, it’s our inherent nature regardless as dynasty footballers to unleash our inner riverboat gambling mentalities.  If you find yourself succumbing to a case of nerves in regards to a player you really want, simply extend an offer to a league-mate who picks before you do.

Speaking to in-draft trading, there are two general mindsets.  The first is to trade up for multiple, early round picks.  Doing this will help to ensure you have a larger proportion of elite players anchoring your lineup.  As a consequence, however, you’re likely to lose valuable middle round picks, where you would normally round out your starting positions and draft valuable depth.  On the other hand, trading out of the early rounds can afford you a relative surplus of quality players, but this will occur at the expense of having more of the consensus “stud” players.

Continuing with the trend, you can also set a strong future foundation for your squad through in-draft trading.  If you find yourself at a crossroads where there’s no player you’re particularly set on drafting, offer up your selection for a future rookie draft pick.  It beats forcing the issue, and as rookie draft picks continually appreciate until they’re used, can give you valuable trade bait down the line.

Speaking to the issue of rookies, if your initial draft includes first-year players, don’t succumb to the dreaded Rookie Fever.  Every year rookies become overvalued due simply to the allure of the unknown.  Often times, this can come at the expense of veterans with proven NFL production.  This is not to say don’t draft any rookies, but don’t completely surrender to the temptation of untapped potential, as it’s just that – potential.

Last, but certainly not least, is advice on how you should handle yourself during the draft.  At its core, fantasy football is supposed to be fun, so don’t do anything to detract from that.  Don’t worry about any criticism you may receive for your picks, and more importantly, don’t mock anyone else’s.  Everyone sees things differently, and you don’t want to immediately establish yourself as the “league jerk.”  Boorish behavior is a quick way to alienate potential trade partners and cripple the overall league dynamic.

Hopefully the preceding has given you some insight and understanding into how best to approach your initial draft.  It’s also my hope that the Dynasty 101 series has served as an effective introduction for your foray into this exciting branch of fantasy football.  So with your newfound knowledge and enthusiasm, get out there and go build your dynasty!

Eric Hardter is a Senior Writer for dlfstg02.dynastyleaguefootball.com, and a veteran of multiple dynasty leagues.  For additional insight, you can follow him on Twitter under the handle @EDH_27 or submit questions to the DLF Mailbag.

eric hardter