The Little Engine that Could

Eric Hardter

ellington

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Several years ago the majority of NFL teams engaged in a paradigm shift that would seismically alter the way fantasy franchises were run – it was the rise of the complementary running back.  Indeed, in a time where the running back-running back early round draft approach was the norm, the minimization of workhorse backs would ultimately necessitate new strategies.  As a consequence, however, a larger proportion of the league’s ball carriers were suddenly fantasy viable.

Some players such as the Saints’ Darren Sproles afforded RB1-level talent despite a fractional amount of touches, while others became FLEX-worthy starters.  Sifting through the ranks could lead to unearthing hidden gems such as the Lions’ Joique Bell, the Patriots’ (now Chargers’) Danny Woodhead and the Falcons’ Jacquizz Rodgers.  Rarely would these players emerge as legitimate fantasy game-breakers, but considering the cost, owners were undoubtedly receiving top-shelf value.  Continuing this trend, I believe the 2013 NFL rookie class has brought yet another prospect in the great line of “change of pace” backs – the Cardinals’ Andre Ellington.

First, however, I want to delve into why it just might be disingenuous to typecast him as a complementary player.  One of the main issues with COP backs such as Ellington is a perceived lack of size, but that just simply isn’t the case here.  While he’s no giant, Ellington checks in at 5’9” and 199 pounds, which is a stature similarly possessed by lead backs such as the Chiefs’ Jamaal Charles (5’11”, 199 pounds) and the Titans’ Chris Johnson (5’11, 203 pounds).

Moreover, Ellington has already proven the ability to carry the load.  During his stint as a Clemson Tiger, Ellington received at least 224 touches in both his junior and senior campaigns.  While it’s fair to debate the defensive prowess of the Atlantic Coast Conference, Ellington’s efficiency didn’t suffer with the increased workload – he averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry during his final two collegiate seasons.

It’s that last point that truly gets me excited about Ellington’s future prospects.  As a sixth round selection Ellington was a definitive sleeper, but his ability to make the most out of his touches has seen him ascend the ranks to being starter Rashard Mendenhall’s direct backup.  Through week 15 of the NFL season (note:  stats were run prior to week 16’s slate of games) he was the overall PPR RB26 despite receiving a mere 127 total touches (note:  he also missed one game due to injury).

To understand just how elite this level of efficiency is, consider the table below where the only players with at least 100 touches and an average of greater than 1.00 PPR points per touch (PPT) are listed:

 

Name

Rank

Carries

Yards

Receptions

Yards

Touchdowns

Touches

PPR Points

PPT

Darren Sproles

RB19

49

219

66

556

4

115

167.5

1.46

Danny Woodhead

RB11

93

355

66

547

8

159

204.2

1.28

Andre Ellington

RB26

93

558

34

351

4

127

148.9

1.17

Jamaal Charles

RB1

246

1182

65

655

18

311

356.7

1.15

Gio Bernard

RB12

144

653

49

416

8

193

203.9

1.06

Joique Bell

RB16

138

528

39

459

7

177

179.7

1.02

It’s not surprising to see players such as Sproles and Woodhead leading the pack, as they’re considered to be more of running back-receiver hybrids.  Generally speaking, receiving backs are more apt to score at a higher rate due to the point-per-reception added onto every catch.  As shown above, Sproles and Woodhead clearly lead the pack in terms of both their receiving prowess, and more importantly, receiving volume.

Extrapolating upon that last point, it’s no small feat to average over 1.00 PPT while functioning primarily as a runner.  Even during Adrian Peterson’s transcendent 2012 season where he rushed for over 2,000 yards, he “only” averaged 0.90 PPR PPT.  So the following table provides additional insight as to what makes Ellington so intriguing:

Name

Carries

Receptions

Run/Catch Ratio

Jamaal Charles

246

65

3.78

Joique Bell

138

39

3.54

Gio Bernard

144

49

2.94

Andre Ellington

93

34

2.74

Danny Woodhead

93

66

1.41

Darren Sproles

49

66

0.74

As mentioned above Sproles and Woodhead spend a large proportion of their snaps functioning as receivers, so it’s no surprise to see their relatively low run/catch ratios (far right column).  The other four players, Ellington included, have run/catch ratios closer to 3:1 (or exceeding that with Charles and Joique Bell), suggesting more “traditional” usage.  Simply put, Ellington isn’t primarily a receiving or third-down back – he’s a running back who just happens to receive limited touches.

Getting back to the first table, one of other factors influencing the PPT statistic is each player’s total number of touchdowns.  Obviously, whenever a player can tack on six points to any given touch he’s doing a great service to his overall stat-line.  With that said, touchdowns can often be one of the most unpredictable and non-replicable statistics, so it’s not one you want to overrate when determining a player’s future viability.  I’m not saying they should be ignored, or that a player should be punished for scoring, but more that future expectations should be tempered.  As such, consider the following table:

Name

Touchdowns

Points from Touchdowns

PPR Points

% Of Points from Touchdowns

Darren Sproles

4

24

167.5

14.3

Andre Ellington

4

24

148.9

16.1

Joique Bell

7

42

179.7

23.4

Gio Bernard

8

48

203.9

23.5

Danny Woodhead

8

48

204.2

23.5

Jamaal Charles

18

108

356.7

30.3

What can be discerned above is that while Gio Bernard, Bell, Woodhead and Charles are all remarkable players, each derives a nearly a quarter (30.3% for Charles) of their points simply from crossing the goal line.  Conversely, Sproles and Ellington only scored eight touchdowns apiece and do most of their damage in the open field.  Ultimately, this is suggestive of room for improvement in terms of scoring.

Now those who have read my previous work likely know the direction I’m headed with all these numbers – the True Points metric.  For a bit of background, this past summer I sought to find a better means of evaluating how prolific a running back is with the ball in his hands.  As such, I invented True Points, which can be derived as follows:

True Points = Total PPR Points – Points from TD’s – Points from the Point Per Reception

In order to relate this to a per-play basis, the resultant True Points can then be divided by the total amount of touches (TPPT).  This has afforded a “true” barometer of a running back’s ability, and as I stated in August it shows “how good a running back is with the ball in his hand and how that relates to his rate of fantasy scoring.”  The table below shows this True Points scoring, and elucidates once more how Ellington has separated himself from the pack:

Name

PPR Points

Points From The PPR

Points From Touchdowns

True Points

Touches

TPPT

Andre Ellington

148.9

34

24

90.9

127

0.72

Darren Sproles

167.5

66

24

77.5

115

0.67

Jamaal Charles

356.7

65

108

183.7

311

0.59

Danny Woodhead

204.2

66

48

90.2

159

0.57

Joique Bell

179.7

39

42

98.7

177

0.56

Gio Bernard

203.9

49

48

106.9

193

0.55

It’s not surprising that Ellington’s TPPT leads the pack, as he’s currently pacing the league with a 5.76 yards-per-carry average (tops amongst qualifiers) and also chips in a robust 10.0 yards-per-catch.  Put succinctly, the guy is lightning in a bottle – he’s simply electric in space.  Even with a nominal decrease towards the median, Ellington’s efficiency would remain sublime.

The totality of these statistics would suggest that if you attempt to trade for Ellington, you’re arguably buying in on his floor.  I’m not saying that his 10.3 touches per game is set to markedly increase, but Mendenhall is likely to be released in the off-season and no other running back on the roster has proven any kind of starting-caliber talent.  Head coach Bruce Arians has already stated that 13-14 touches per game is plenty for the talented rookie this year, but what will happen if/when Mendenhall takes his talents elsewhere?

Moreover, Ellington’s rates of scoring and receiving are subpar and slightly above average respectively.  Sheer playmaking ability has kept him amongst the ranks of the efficiently elite, but he could truly explode with additional opportunities for touchdowns.  His 2.6 receptions-per-game have been a nice bonus, but don’t represent an otherworldly number where no level of improvement is possible.  Even just a slight increase in passing game usage would be a huge boon for Ellington’s weekly fantasy output.

Now, it’s not all unicorns and rainbows.  Ellington is older for a rookie (24), thereby theoretically diminishing his shelf life.  It would also be potentially misleading to automatically assume he’ll receive a bigger piece of the running back pie solely due to Mendenhall’s likely departure.  Even if he does, projecting a static efficiency despite increased usage is a phenomenal way to ensure unmet expectations (see Spiller, CJ).

Nevertheless, I’m both a believer and a buyer.  Ellington is closing in on 1,000 total yards despite appearing unlikely to surpass 170 touches, and those types of numbers scream superstar potential.  Already on the RB2 radar, with more game-to-game consistency I believe Ellington can become a better and similarly utilized version of ex-Patriot Kevin Faulk or current Saint Pierre Thomas.  This “little engine” has already proven that he can play, and you don’t want to be left at the station when the Ellington Express goes roaring past.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter