The End is Near
Whether celebrating a championship or agonizing over a last place finish, every dynasty owner should spend some time as the NFL season dwindles down thinking about their roster and how they feel about it entering 2014. While investing time scouting the NFL’s incoming class of rookies is important, it may be even more critical to your team’s chances in the next few years to identify the players on your roster that are nearing the end of their reign as a fantasy contributor.
I’ve always believed it’s much better to sell a player a year too early than too late, but sometimes it can be incredibly difficult to trade a player after a solid season. For instance, at this point last season Roddy White was putting the finishing touches on a 92 catch, 1,351 yard season where he caught seven touchdowns. Most dynasty owners were penciling his name in as top-15 wide receiver for 2013, but the savvy dynasty owner was putting his name on the trade block.
As I said earlier, it’s better to trade a player a year too soon than a year too late, but it’s also important to recognize the last chance to get the remaining trade value out of a player. With that in mind, let’s try to spot some players who have been perennial starters on fantasy teams over the last few years, but are due for a letdown.
Peyton Manning, QB DEN
Let’s get one thing straight. Age catches up to everybody and it’s bound to catch up to Manning. He’s going to be 38 in March and even though he’s re-writing the NFL’s record books as we speak, he’s bound to fall off (or retire) at some point.
Let me make another thing clear. If Manning announces he’s coming back for a 15th season under center, there’s absolutely no reason not to explore trading him over the off-season. Even if you’ve just won your league’s championship and look primed for a run at the title again in 2014, you owe it to yourself to find out what you can get for the aging star. Coming off a 50-plus touchdown season and likely the most passing yards by any player in a single campaign, there’s going to be a market for his services.
With all that said, I’m not telling you to sell him at a discount, but dynasty owners would be foolish not to at least explore dealing the Broncos’ signal caller over the coming months.
Frank Gore, RB SF
By the time Sunday night rolls around, Gore will likely have his third consecutive 1,200 yard, eight-plus touchdown season. He’s been a model of consistency, playing in every game over the last three seasons and averaging at least 4.2 yards per carry every year since he entered the league.
The problem Gore presents for dynasty owners is that he’s on the wrong side of 30 and has a lot of mileage on his tires. He’s carried the ball 2,176 times over the last nine years. On top of that, the 49ers are relatively deep at tailback with Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore and LaMichael James all on the roster, not to mention goal line specialist Anthony Dixon. Dynasty owners should also keep in mind Gore’s scheduled to receive a rather large roster bonus over the off-season and will become a free agent after next season.
All the signs point to 2014 being Gore’s final season as a featured tailback and consistent fantasy contributor. He’s on the verge of reaching 10,000 rushing yards on his career. While that number is impressive, it should be seen as a warning for dynasty owners.
Fred Jackson, RB BUF
It’s “last call” on getting anything of value for Jackson, who turns 33 in February and has a well-documented injury history. His name might be the most obvious “sell” on this list, but it’s not listed here only because of his age and the fact that there is a young, talented replacement on the Buffalo roster. It’s here due to his effectiveness this season.
Did you know Jackson’s currently the 13th ranked running back in points-per-game in PPR leagues and 14th among running backs in standard scoring leagues? He’s accounted for 1170 yards from scrimmage, 44 receptions and nine total touchdowns this year. No doubt there’s somebody in your league that would look at those numbers and see him as a valuable commodity.
It may take some salesmanship to get somebody to take him, but the numbers he’s posted should make it possible. At this point, it’s time to get what you can in return for Jackson. The days of him being a top-15 fantasy running back are running out, and fast.
Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
Peterson has proven in the past he’s not like most running backs, so dynasty owners shouldn’t be surprised if he plays at a high level into his 30’s. They shouldn’t expect it, however. He’ll turn 29 in March and has averaged just shy of 300 carries per season over his seven year career.
Even with that workload and the injuries he’s battled through this season, he should bring a premium on the trade market. It may be a year early to suggest a decline is nearing for “All Day.” After all, he’s scored double digit touchdowns each of the last seven years and never averaged less than 4.4 yards per carry in a season. But he might be the poster boy for the “rather sell a year early than a year late” theory. If he suffers an injury or battles ineffectiveness in 2014, dynasty owners won’t be able to get nearly as much for him after he turns 30.
Andre Johnson, WR HOU
There are only two receivers in the history of the NFL with five, 100 catch seasons on their resume. Wes Welker is one of them, I’m sure you already know who the other is.
Before the 2014 season kicks off, Johnson will turn 33. He’s shown no signs of decline, but fantasy owners should keep in mind that he’s likely to be catching passes from a rookie quarterback next season. While we’ve seen rookie quarterbacks succeed over the last few seasons, it’s certainly not a given. It can also be presumed that the Texans will attempt to get DeAndre Hopkins involved more in the offense in his second season.
With all those things working against him, this off-season looks like the optimum time for dynasty owners to look into selling Johnson. Many still consider him a WR1 and will pay that price for him. It’s unlikely that he’ll fetch that return in future off-seasons.
Reggie Wayne, WR IND
The end may not be near, it may already be here for Wayne. It could very well be too late to get anything of note for Wayne on the trade market. He was on his way to another solid season this year, catching 38 passes for 503 yards and a pair of touchdowns, when he tore his ACL against the Broncos in week seven. He just turned 35 and most dynasty owners will be leery of giving up anything of value for Andrew Luck’s favorite target. That said, it’s worth looking into moving him.
Wes Welker, WR DEN
After week eight, it would have been hard for anybody to suggest trading Welker. In retrospect, that may have been the best time to trade him. He was on pace to catch 100 passes for 1,100 yards and 18 touchdowns. Fast forward a couple months (and a couple concussions) and his numbers haven’t been nearly as impressive. Over that time, he caught 23 passes for just 223 yards and one score in five games.
Dynasty owners should be concerned about Welker as the post-season draws near. The Broncos have locked up a first-round bye, so by the time they play their first playoff game, Welker will have rested for nearly five weeks. The best case scenario for those that own him would be for him to return to the Denver lineup in time to make a deep playoff run. If that happens and he plays well, potential trading partners should have their nerves eased about the slot receiver’s head injuries. Hopefully, enough to deal for him over the off-season.
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