Dynasty Mythbusters: Bryce Brown and Ben Tate
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. The hype train often gets rolling much too quickly one way or the other on players.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them. From this point forward, I’m not going to be focusing very much on this season but rather the long term outlook for 2014 and beyond.
This week I’m going to take a moment to look at two of the running back handcuffs who seem to be highly prized by people in the fantasy community. Are they worth targeting as future starting running backs in 2014 and 2015? If they do get a starting role, will they be more Michael Turner going to the Falcons or Michael Bush going to the Bears? Let’s take a look and see what we can find out!
Ben Tate, RB HOU
2013 Season: 181 carries for 771 yards (4.3 YPC) and 4 touchdowns. 34 receptions for 140 yards.
After being the second round pick for the Texans in the 2010 NFL draft, the hopes for Tate were sky high. Many expected him to jump right in as the starting running back for an emerging Texans offense and help lead them to the playoffs. That dream was very short lived though as Tate utterly destroyed his ankle during the preseason, opening the door for Arian Foster. The rest is history.
Since missing all of the 2010 season and Foster’s resulting emergence, Tate has been the clear second choice for the Texans. At times he has looked like someone that could be the running back many teams are looking to find, the rare three down talent, but he’s never been giving the chance to be that for the Texans other than the occasional game here and there when Foster was hurt. With his contract expiring and the large contract of Foster, the Texans are unlikely to be a major player in the Tate sweepstakes which means he’s probably going elsewhere. The question is what will that bring other than lots of hype?
The Good: Physically speaking, Tate is a specimen. He is 5’11” and nearly 220 pounds, which makes him just about the ideal size for a running back. Combine that size with extreme athletic ability and you have a player that should be a star in the NFL. Just how good of an athlete was Tate coming out of college? Remember the fuss about Christine Michael’s combine performance this past spring? Tate was nearly identical in most of the drills with Michael being slightly better in the change of direction drills (cone and shuttle) while Tate had superior straight line speed. Combine the physical ability with plus vision and Tate seems to have the talent to succeed.
Over the last four years, Tate has managed to get 421 carries for 1,992 yards – that’s a very impressive 4.7 yards per carry. Even though the Texans have had one of the best offensive lines over that time period, it is still important to realize that Tate has been productive against NFL defenses. He has another 58 receptions for 287 yards over that time, showing his ability to catch passes out of the backfield and be an asset in the passing game.
The Bad: When it comes to Tate, the biggest question mark for him is his health. Over his four year career, he has never played in all 16 games. He missed his entire rookie season with the broken ankle as well as eight full games in the next three seasons in addition to parts of at least four others. He is also a frequent flier on the Texans injury report even when he does play. That kind of durability, or rather the lack there of, is a definite concern for any NFL team that is considering writing him a big check. In addition to the concern of Tate going down at any point in time, it is fair to wonder if some of those injuries have taken a toll on Tate’s speed and quickness.
Inconsistent play from Tate has also been a bit of a concern over these past few years. He was so inconsistent over the 2012 season that he was actually relegated to the third string role behind Justin Forsett for a portion of it. Part of the issue has been Tate’s ball security. In his 421 NFL carries, he has fumbled the ball ten times. If he were to get a full time role as a starter, that rate would be once every two or three games. The inconsistency in Tate’s game isn’t limited to just fumbles. Foster’s last game was October 13th and since that time Tate has managed 140 carries for 515 yards and four touchdowns (three of them in one game) – that’s not even 3.7 yards per carry. While he did have some respectable games in that stretch, he also had five of his nine games during the period as the Texan’s starter where he produced single digit fantasy numbers in PPR leagues.
The Ugly Truth: Tate is talented, but when I watch him over the last two years I don’t see the same player I saw coming out of college. He is still good, but he doesn’t have the special blend of skills he used to have. Combine that with the growing injury history and I don’t think he’s the future RB1 some are bound to expect when he goes elsewhere.
My recommendation is if you currently own Tate, you wait until the free agent fever kicks into high gear. Hopefully there will be talk of teams like the Browns, Raiders and others eyeing Tate as their starting running back, then you can trade him to a believer for at least RB2 value. Tate will be 26 at the start of next season and with his injury, fumbling and inconsistency issues, he is unlikely to produce at a level higher than that. If you can get someone to pay for the upside it is a definite win for you.
Bryce Brown, RB PHI
2013 Season through 15 games: 73 carries for 303 yards (4.2 YPC) and 1 touchdown. 8 receptions for 84 yards.
Last offseason when the Eagles hired Chip Kelly as their coach, an awful lot of fantasy owners were snatching up Bryce Brown at very high prices, expecting Kelly to run the ball 50 times a game. This would make both Brown and all-pro LeSean McCoy top fifteen running backs. Unfortunately for those owners, that isn’t exactly how things worked out. If they had done a little bit of research or read any of our articles about Chip Kelly’s history of really only being a one running back coach, those owners would have known better than to pay those high prices for a backup. After a good game against the Bears there is talk about Brown again. Is there any hope in the near future that Brown might reach those lofty expectations or was this just another tease?
The Good: Measuring in at 6’0” and 220 pounds, Brown has the size and the speed to be a top running back in the NFL. We all know about his history as the top college recruit in the country and his issues in college, but he made a lot of people forget all about those issues with his two big games last year. All of that speaks to just how much raw physical talent he possesses. We had another good view of that when he played the Bears this past weekend and exploded down the sidelines for a 65-yard touchdown run.
One of his major issues during his rookie season, fumbling, seems to have improved. He hasn’t had a single fumble this season compared to one every 30 carries during his rookie year. At 22 years old, he is definitely someone to keep an eye on because he has talent and is still learning the position at the NFL level.
The Bad: If we are talking about Brown bring a startable fantasy asset in the next two years, there are several obstacles he needs to overcome. The first and foremost is that he is under contract with the Eagles through the 2015 season and he isn’t going to surpass McCoy for the starting job no matter how much he tells the media he wants to. McCoy is one of the three most talented running backs in the entire NFL (along with Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles) and Brown, even with all of his talents, just isn’t at that level.
While he seems to have improved on the fumbling issue from his rookie season, the second major obstacle for Brown also harkens back to his rookie season issues. He had a very strong tendency to bounce anything and everything to the outside. Unfortunately for Brown, just trying to outrun everyone in the NFL doesn’t always work. That tendency is still there. Even with his size, he struggles when asked to run the ball inside. He doesn’t seem to understand how to read blockers and can’t see the smaller holes opening up for him at the NFL level. Instead he prefers to be out in space where it is just him and the defender so he can use his athletic ability to make the defender miss. While it is good to be able to do that, he needs to learn to run inside if he is ever going to be a lead back in the NFL.
The Ugly Truth: Prior to the game against the Bears historically terrible run defense, Brown had a season stat line of 64 carries for 188 yards and no touchdowns – that’s less than three yards per carry. Since his two game stretch late last season, Brown hasn’t shown that dynamic talent very often in an NFL game. Defenses have learned he bounces everything to the outside and if they can force him to stay in the middle of the field he can’t do much of anything. Until he can learn to correct this issue, assuming it is correctable, he might not even be the second best running back on his team.
If you currently own Brown and there is someone else in your league interested in him, it might be in your best interest to see what they will offer. With two more years on his contract and issues with his game, there isn’t much chance he produces in the next two years unless there is a major injury to McCoy. Even in that case, I think he would be in a committee back with Chris Polk as the more physical compliment. I just don’t see much of a future for Brown as a fantasy asset in the next two years. If you have super deep rosters and want to stash him for three years out, then go for it. Just don’t expect much before 2016.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
