Dynasty Stock Market: Off-Season Questions – NFC
Although the NFL off-season is still several weeks away, it’s never too early for dynasty owners to begin looking forward. Over the next two weeks, I will highlight some of the top off-season storylines and how the dynasty value of the players involved might be affected. This week, I’ll start with a few burning questions from the NFC.
Will Jay Cutler remain in Chicago?
Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler will be a free agent at the conclusion of the season and rumors of his possible departure from the Windy City are already swirling. Cutler began the year playing well and leading the Bears to a winning record, but once he was injured and missed a few games, there was no real drop in production under backup quarterback Josh McCown. Head coach Marc Trestman leads one of the most pass happy offenses in the league, so any new team for Cutler would likely be a downgrade in production and therefore would negatively impact his dynasty value. McCown is also a free agent, not to mention being 34 years old. He is certainly not the future of the franchise, but he may have shown Trestman and the Bears’ brass that they don’t have to hand out a huge contract to a “franchise” quarterback in order to run a top offense. The bottom line is the Bears’ starting quarterback will have a very high value in 2014, be it Cutler, McCown or a newcomer.
Who is the starting quarterback in Washington?
This is one of the more recent developments of the 2013 NFL season. It is no secret the Washington Redskins have struggled this season, currently sporting an NFC worst 3-13 record and losers of six consecutive games. In the midst of that losing streak, rumors began to circulate that head coach Mike Shanahan may lose his job. Following that were reports that Shanahan had a poor relationship with starting quarterback Robert Griffin III and was jealous of the team’s star player, mostly due to his relationship with owner Daniel Snyder. It is difficult for any outsider to know whether any of these reports have validity, but there is clearly something not right in the nation’s capital. Following the team’s week fourteen loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, a game in which the Redskins were thoroughly demolished, Shanahan began alluding to the possibility of a change at quarterback. Personally, this seemed like a very petty move and I did not expect to see this actually play out. Of course, we know now that it did happen and Griffin was benched, or shut down, for the remainder of the season. Shanahan cited Griffin’s health and the importance of having a fully healthy off-season to take the next step as a franchise quarterback. Cynics didn’t believe this for a second. Many saw this as Shanahan attempting to get fired so he would not have to quit, and give up the severance package he would be due if Snyder made the ultimate decision. Regardless of the reasoning, in steps Kirk Cousins and the situation could not be any better for the former Michigan State starter. Cousins faced the struggling Atlanta Falcons last week and though Atlanta came out victorious, Cousins racked up the passing yardage and looked pretty good doing so. In the season’s final two weeks, he gets the opportunity to tear apart two of the league’s worst pass defenses, the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. It’s almost like Shanahan was hoping to create a quarterback controversy. Hmmm…It is my hope, after bearing witness to some of Shanahan’s behavior this season, that Daniel Snyder does indeed fire him and the team moves forward with Griffin. If Cousins plays well enough in the final two weeks that the Redskins can trade him and recoup some of the lost picks, all the better. For now, Griffin’s dynasty value is taking a knock and Cousins is on the upswing.
Can Jermichael Finley return from injury?
During the Packers week seven matchup against the Cleveland Browns, tight end Jermichael Finley suffered a frightening injury that many thought could end his career, and still might. Finley’s injury was ultimately diagnosed as a bruised spinal cord and obviously was serious enough to end Finley’s season. Weeks after suffering the injury, Finley opted to undergo spinal fusion surgery and released a statement explaining that the tight end expects to fully recover and play football again. It will be a long road to recovery for Finley and it is far from a certainty that he will ever play again, let alone at the high level we’ve witnessed in the past. To make matters worse, Finley is a free agent at the end of the season and there was already a presumption that he would not be re-signed by Green Bay. With the depth of the incoming tight end class and the growing number of promising young tight ends around the league, it’s difficult to imagine many teams having interest in Finley. Though it’s a sad story, Finley’s career might be over and he currently has no dynasty value.
Will Andre Ellington claim the Cardinals’ starting running back job?
One of the biggest surprises of the season so far is the impressive play of Cardinals’ rookie running back Andre Ellington, who is on pace for over 1,000 yards from scrimmage despite playing a backup role to Rashard Mendenhall. The Arizona running game was clearly in need of a makeover after the 2011 season and that is just what it got. The team signed the free agent Mendenhall and drafted both Ellington and former Stanford back Stepfan Taylor. Though Taylor looked better in the pre-season, once the season began, it’s been Ellington who has played the larger role of the two rookies. Though Mendenhall has exactly double the carries of the rookie from Clemson, he only has nineteen more rushing yards and as a result, Ellington has nearly doubled Mendenhall’s yardage per carry. Ellington is also much more prolific in the passing game than his veteran counterpart, with nearly triple the receiving yardage and over double the number of receptions. Despite all of this evidence that Ellington is the better option, head coach Bruce Arians has refused to give Ellington a typical amount of starter’s carries, explaining that the back is more suited for limited touches. Mendenhall is only signed to a one-year deal and it would be a surprise for him to be re-signed by the Cardinals. Based on what we’ve seen and heard from Arians, don’t expect Ellington to take over as the every down back, but he should earn the larger role of the expected running-back-by-committee. The smaller role could be filled by Taylor or another free agent back.
How can Atlanta replace future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez?
In short….they can’t. Tony Gonzalez began his career with the Kansas City Chiefs who drafted him in the first round of the 1997 draft. His first two seasons were relatively quiet as he finished as TE19 during his rookie year and TE10 in his second season. Since then, Gonzalez has placed among the top eight fantasy tight ends every season. That means from 1999 through 2012, Gonzalez has been a TE1 in all leagues. Among this amazing run, he has four seasons as the top overall tight end and another six seasons as the second or third overall tight end. Gonzalez has spent the past five seasons with the Atlanta Falcons and has enjoyed much success with Matt Ryan, Roddy White and the other stars of the offense. Expectations were high entering the 2013 season, but with injuries to Julio Jones, Steven Jackson and White, the season quickly sputtered. Gonzalez flirted with retirement last off-season, but finally reported to training camp and announced that the 2013 season would be his last in the league. The Falcons have a young rookie tight end behind Gonzalez in Levine Toilolo. The fourth rounder from Stanford has appeared in the majority of the team’s games this season, but has just eleven receptions for fifty-five yards. Even though they’ve struggled, the team has to consider themselves a contender heading into 2014 with everyone hopefully healthy. So, it is hard to imagine the Falcons going with Toilolo as their top tight end. The team could select an early round tight end in the draft or look to the free agent class with options like Martellus Bennett and Brandon Myers among the available options.
Does Carolina finally add a top end wide receiver?
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton will be entering his fourth year in 2014 and outside of undersized veteran wide receiver Steve Smith, he has yet to play with a consistent and reliable wide receiver. Many though Brandon LaFell might be the answer, but he continues to disappoint and it’s clear he is not the answer to division rivals Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson and the collection of Saints’ wide receivers. With taller receivers becoming the top weapon in football, it is imperative that Carolina add a top receiving threat to improve their inconsistent offense. There have been rumors that there could be some mutual interest between the Panthers and current Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who will be a free agent this off-season. If those rumors prove to be false, or even if the Panthers do add Nicks, they could look to the draft to add a top wideout as well. The incoming wide receiver class is very deep with multiple tiers of playmaking wide receivers, so the team could use their first rounder on a player like Devante Adams or Jordan Matthews or they could wait until later in the draft and look at someone like Paul Richardson. Regardless, this off-season will be the prime time to add a wide receiver for Newton and the Panthers’ offense.
Who will be the Vikings’ starting quarterback?
The Minnesota Vikings have had a quarterback carousel this season. Christian Ponder began the season for the team, but battled injuries and struggled to find success. That led the team to turn to backup Matt Cassel and eventually shop for and sign free agent Josh Freeman, who had been let go by the Buccaneers. With two games remaining, Ponder has nine starts on the season, Cassel has four and Freeman just one. Cassel has probably had the most success, especially recently as the team has won two of their past three games. Because of that, it should come as no surprise that reports are already surfacing that the team will part ways with both former first round picks, Freeman and Ponder, this off-season. That move is probably for the best, but leaves the team with some big holes to fill at the most important position. Is it possible that Cassel will enter 2014 as the starter? We have to assume the Vikings will be shopping for an early round quarterback in May’s draft, but there are many risks in playing a rookie too soon. Expect the Vikings to select a quarterback in round one or two of the NFL draft and whomever that rookie might is, he will be charged with taking the job from the veteran Cassel.
Can David Wilson overcome his injury?
Last off-season was the off-season of overhyped players. Exhibit A of this is Giants running back David Wilson. As a rookie in 2012, Wilson rushed for just over 350 yards, yet he value rose high enough to routinely make him a second round draft pick in dynasty startups. This was partially due to the release of veteran former starter Ahmad Bradshaw, along with the dynamic speed of Wilson, who was the expected starter for the Giants. Wilson did begin the season as the starter, but struggled from day one. In the team’s week one game against the Dallas Cowboys, Wilson rushed just seven times for nineteen yards and more importantly, had trouble holding onto the ball. Fumbles have been an issue for Wilson throughout his short NFL career and each time he loses the ball, he loses touches on offense as well. The next four games saw little improvement from Wilson, who finally found the endzone in week five against the Eagles. Unfortunately for Wilson, soon after scoring his first touchdown, Wilson suffered a neck injury that ultimately cost him his season. Soon after the injury, it was reported that Wilson would only be out a short period of time. After much speculation regarding the exact injury, Wilson was finally placed on the injured reserve list with a herniated disc in his neck. Wilson will reportedly not require surgery, but doctors have told him that he faces increased risk of further damage to his neck. Much like Finley, Wilson’s return to the field cannot be guaranteed. In his absence, Andre Brown has played well, though he is entering free agency. Expect the Giants to re-sign Brown and stick with him a their starter in 2014.
Do the Rams trade down or draft Sam Bradford’s replacement?
It can be argued that Rams quarterback Sam Bradford was on pace for his best season of his four year professional career before suffering a season ending injury week seven. The truth though is that Bradford has not come very far in his four years in St. Louis. This is the second season he’s been unable to complete and he has yet to finish higher than QB18 in fantasy leagues. Bradford seems to be overrated based on his college career and his high draft status. The Rams are primed to earn a very high draft pick thanks to their trade with the Redskins in which they moved down in the 2011 draft, allowing Washington to select Robert Griffin III. The return on that deal has been phenomenal for the Rams and it is about to get better. St. Louis will be in a perfect position to select one of the top two or three quarterbacks in the draft, possibly a player like Derek Carr or Blake Bortles. Would they pass up that opportunity and give Bradford one more chance or maybe they try to repeat history and move down in the draft yet again, allowing another team to grab the rookie passer of their choice. In the end, I expect the Rams to either stay with their pick and select a player other than quarterback or move the pick. I think we’ll see Bradford back in St. Louis for at least one more season.
Can Greg Schiano and Mike Glennon overcome the turmoil of this season and maintain their roles in 2014?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a wild ride this season. The Bucs lost their first eight games and looked primed to earn the top overall pick and fire head coach Greg Schiano. In the midst of that losing streak was the fiasco that was the Josh Freeman situation. The former first round pick was benched and replaced by rookie Mike Glennon. While that move was somewhat surprising, it was the leaks regarding his inclusion in the NFL’s drug program, information that is supposed to be confidential, which became a big story. Reportedly, many believe that Schiano was behind the leaks. Next though, the team won four of its next five games and Glennon has been one of the league’s big surprises at quarterback. Will the late season success of both the team as a whole and Glennon individually allow Schiano to keep his job? If he does, it is a safe assumption that Glennon will go into the 2014 season as the starter. If Schiano is not retained, there’s always a chance that new coach will choose to bring in his own guy, as is often the case. Until we know the future of Schiano, which should come to light the Monday following the regular season finale, the dynasty value of Glennon is in flux.
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