Herding Stats: Week Sixteen

TheFFGhost

cousinsThere’s a saying, “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Kirk Cousins

It’s fairly apparent, Cousins is auditioning for a job. Now, that job likely isn’t going to be in Washington next year but if I were to bet, he’ll be starting somewhere next season. Robert Griffin III might not be happy with the recent turn of events but he should be. The better Cousins does, the more secure Griffin’s job will eventually be. If Cousins can keep playing like he did last week then his value will be such that Washington will be able to move him, hence Griffin is the clear cut starter. After this season is all said and done, Shanahan may actually be a full-fledged evil-genius. He knows his team’s season is done, why hurt his star quarterback and why not start display his back-up quarterback against three favorable match-ups. This week Cousins faces the league’s worst defense against quarterbacks. The Cowboys have given up the most passing yards in the NFL, the second most passing touchdowns and the second most completions. Teams also attempt the fourth most passes per game on average against Dallas with each pass attempt averaging 7.4 yards (the fifth highest in the NFL). Look for Cousins to have another great game and further drive up his value.

Running Back Focus:  DeMarco Murray

Murray has been on fire lately, I’d even argue he might be one of the best fantasy values at this point in the season. Over the past two games Murray is averaging a huge 7.7 yards per rush! Now when you take a running back that is as hot as Murray is and match him up against the defense giving up the second most fantasy points to running backs, fireworks are bound to happen. This week Murray faces Washington, the team giving up the most rushing touchdowns to running backs in the NFL. While I mentioned only two games earlier, it is important to note that Dallas actually ranks fourth overall in the NFL when it comes to yards per rush attempt, coming in at 4.6 yards per attempt and Murray is racking up 81.4 rushing yards per game, the fifth most of all NFL running backs. So while Murray may be on an incredible tear, he has been putting in work all season long thus far. Remember earlier when I pointed out Washington’s inability to stop rushing touchdowns? Well, Murray has scored the fifth most rushing touchdowns of all NFL running backs. If Dallas is able to get ahead early then this could be an ugly day for the Washington defense and an amazing day for DeMarco Murray.

Wide Receiver Focus:  Cincinnati WRs

While the Bengals wide receiving corps tends to be synonymous with AJ Green, wise fantasy owners would be smart to take a little bit deeper look this week. Sure, Green is an absolute fantasy monster, that’s hardly debatable. However, Marvin Jones is quickly emerging as a startable fantasy option and Mohamed Sanu is even a receiver one can consider when in a bind. Jones, interestingly enough, actually has more receiving touchdowns than AJ Green this season and his yards per reception is almost the same. Additionally, Jones is racking up roughly five yards per catch, after the catch (YAC) as opposed to Green’s 4.13 yards per catch, after the catch (YAC). This is also fairly surprising given the impression that Green is the Bengal’s deep threat that stretches the field and gets the big plays. This week the Cincinnati wide receiving corps face the Viking, the defense giving up the second most fantasy yards to wide receivers this season. Minnesota is giving up the third most receiving yards, the second most receptions and the third most receiving touchdowns in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bengals are throwing just under two passing touchdowns per game, the eighth most in the NFL. Given the match-up, the players involved and the statistics outlined above, owners of Bengals receivers should be smiling as they watch the points build up.

Tight End Focus: Delanie Walker

Walker has been a very reliable plug and play tight end option all season long. A fantasy owner could start Walker and safely expect him to gain them a decent amount of points with very little chance of him laying a complete egg. This week Walker gets his second straight juicy game in as many weeks. Last week Walker faced the number one worst defense against tight ends, this week he faces the second worst. Walker’s match up this week is the Jacksonville Jaguars who have given up the second most completions to tight ends, the fourth most receiving yards and the fifth most touchdowns. Walker meanwhile has been averaging nearly seven receptions for 63 yards roughly a touchdown per game over the past five games he’s played in, if you don’t factor in the December 1st game in which he got a concussion in the first quarter. Look for Fitzpatrick to continue targeting Walker against a subpar Jacksonville defense and for Walker to continue his hot streak.

Defensive Team Focus:  Browns

The Browns have steadily been improving their defense year after year and this week that defense should be one of the better defensive starts in fantasy. This week Cleveland faces a horrible Jets team that gives up the second most fantasy points to defenses this season. The Browns meanwhile are giving up the eighth least yards to opposing offenses this season. When you pair a New York offense that is gaining the third lowest amount of offensive yards in the league and you can begin to see why this is a great matchup to target. When digging a bit deeper you find that the Jets are giving up the second most sacks in the NFL with 3.4 surrendered per game on average as well as throwing the second most interceptions per game in the NFL with 1.6 thrown per game. Finally, New York is scoring the second least points per game with a measly 17.6 points per game. If you’ve got the Browns defense, or any of their players if you’re in an IDP league, then get them in your lineup and enjoy the spoils come Sunday.