The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

rainey

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) In my 14-team, half-PPR league I fell out of playoff contention and started building for next year. At the trade deadline I ended up trading Brandon Marshall for what will end up being the number one pick in the draft next year. I have Josh Gordon and Keenan Allen so I felt Marshall was expendable. I also feel Marshall has one more good year left before he starts to decline. Some in my league are complaining that I traded Marshall for too little. Was the trade a good one or could I have gotten more?Matt in MA

It’s hard to answer these types of questions in an absolute manner, as any opinion is merely one data point amongst a myriad of views.  Continuing, dynasty football, like most any subjective venture, can be typified by the phrase “beauty is in the eye of the beholder,” thereby injecting personal bias into virtually every roster move you make.  Finally, factoring in concepts such as team need and relative stature, it’s disingenuous to claim the ability to see every move in black and white – dynasty football is just too complex for that.

So you should feel fortified by the above paragraph when I tell you that I agree with your league mates – I think your side of the bargain was a little light.  That’s not to say I disagree with your motives, as you were cunning enough to trade away an aging player from a rebuilding squad.  It has more to do with a difference in opinion regarding the Bears’ Brandon Marshall.

While it’s true that Marshall will turn 30 before the start of the 2014 season, he hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down.  He remains a PPR (or half-PPR, in your case) machine capable of racking up both receptions and touchdowns on an offense built to support multiple fantasy components.  Yes, the age is somewhat of a concern, but elite wideouts who don’t rely solely on speed (ex. Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens and Andre Johnson) aren’t a lock to succumb to a fantasy malaise the moment they achieve three full decades of life.

Perhaps just as importantly is the return you should’ve received when you sold him.  By virtue of divesting yourself of Marshall at the trade deadline, your “supply” should created a huge “demand,” and therefore a more robust return upon your sale.  The pick is nice, but I feel you should’ve gotten more in return, and perhaps someone with at least somewhat of a proven NFL track record.

Now, don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t a terrible trade by any stretch of the imagination.  If you wind up drafting a future stud who provides you with ten years of fantasy greatness you’ll have done well – but therein lies the challenge.  There are no guarantees that will happen, whereas Marshall is a top-tier player for the foreseeable future.  Regardless, you made the move you feel best helps your squad, and at the end of the day that’s the only opinion that really matters.

2.) Do you think Ahmad Bradshaw will be healthy enough to play next year and do you think he will be with the Colts?  How viable of a non-PPR running back do you think he is going forward?Dennis in FL

When it comes to impending free agent running back Ahmad Bradshaw, I think the big question has less to do with his current health and more to do with his future physical viability.  Recent reports have stated Bradshaw has deemed himself healthy enough to play right now, but a trip to the injured reserve has guaranteed he won’t see the field until 2014.  When that time comes, however, I believe he’ll have a market.

As we’ve seen time and time again in the NFL, talent seemingly trumps all other factors.  Bradshaw’s talent has never been in question, as he sports a career average of 4.6 yards-per-carry, and has also chipped in 1.6 receptions per game as well.  He’s a versatile back who can play all three downs, and his pass blocking has ensured he remains on the field for critical passing situations.

With that said, I have to believe the days of Bradshaw as a feature back are over.  His efficiency was at its apex during a 2009 timeshare as part of the Giants’ backfield, when he averaged 12.3 touches per game.  While he’s always been a fairly proficient scorer (a touchdown per every 28.3 carries), that type of usage would dramatically cap his upside, regardless of location (a return to Indy doesn’t seem logical to me, as they will attempt to install Trent Richardson as the feature back).  So while Bradshaw is definitely worth a stash, I’d keep my expectations tempered and sell if anyone was willing to make a reasonable offer.  If history is any indicator, it’s not a matter of if, but when Bradshaw gets hurt again.

3.) In a PPR league, is Bobby Rainey worth holding for 2014?Eric in PA

Bobby Rainey, the current Highlander of the Tampa Bay backfield, has achieved success far greater than what any fantasy footballer could’ve prognosticated prior to the 2013 season.  After being cut by the Ravens in the off-season, Rainey had a cup of coffee with division rival Cleveland before being unceremoniously dumped yet again.  When he signed with the Bucs prior to week eight, it was presumably solely for depth purposes.

However, following an injury to backfield mate Mike James (and of course the big loss of star Doug Martin), Rainey took over as the lead back and hasn’t looked back.  In his four games as a starter Rainey boasts averages of 21.8 carries and 97 yards, to go along with four total touchdowns and seven receptions to boot.  With rookie Mike Glennon still getting acclimated under center, Rainey has served as the undisputed focal point of the offense.

With that said, not even the staunchest Rainey advocate would suggest these trends will continue into the 2014 season.  After all, Martin is a proven talent, and James was playing ahead of, and equally as well as Rainey.  When all are healthy next year, Rainey’s likely closer to being a game-day inactive than he is a bell-cow starter.

However, as always the devil’s in the details.  Come free agency, Rainey will be listed as an exclusive rights free agent, meaning Tampa can retain his rights for the price of a third-year veteran’s minimum contract.  Currently, that would equate to $645,000 according to the most recent figures.  With Martin and James still playing out their rookie deals, and journeyman Brian Leonard set to be a free agent, it stands to reason the Bucs will hang onto their affordable, talented back.

Already 26, that’s another year of production Rainey could lose, suppressing his dynasty value.  Nevertheless, I’m always loath to release talented players due solely to situation.  So while I’m keeping my expectations tempered for the immediate future, I think Rainey is a fine stash for forward thinking owners.

4.) I’m in a first-year, PPR keeper league and I have two big questions. First, should I keep David Wilson for a 2014 second round selection (I can keep Andre Brown for a tenth rounder)? Secondly, is Rob Gronkowski worth a fourth round pick next year?D. Meyer in MD

Having touched upon the fantasy scourge that is David Wilson last week, I’m not going to mince words here.  There’s no way I’d take him in the second round of a startup draft, therefore there’s no way he’s worth that type of keeper selection.  I’d gladly hang onto Andre Brown for a fraction of the price, as he’s already proven significantly more on the field.

The second part of your question represents a much greater dilemma.  Patriots’ star tight end Rob Gronkowski is undoubtedly one of the biggest difference makers in fantasy football, and you made a shrewd decision to draft him for the relatively low price of a fourth round selection.  Unfortunately, as we all know by now, Gronk succumbed to yet another ailment this past Sunday, tearing both the ACL and MCL in his knee during a vicious (but sadly legal, and “defensible” – thanks, Goodell) hit by Browns’ safety TJ Ward.

This injury and subsequent surgery will sideline the historically proficient Gronkowski anywhere from six to nine months (or possibly longer), meaning he’s no lock to begin the 2014 season as an active player.  Considering the myriad of injuries, as well as missed games, Gronk has already accumulated, this is yet another red mark on his already suspect resume.  Simply put, his longevity doesn’t seem likely to match his talent.

However, the big silver lining is that Gronkowski doesn’t have any history of knee injuries, and ACL surgeries are becoming far more advanced (see:  Peterson, Adrian and Charles, Jamaal).  Sure, his 2014 season appears likely to be disrupted, but Gronkowski is still only 24 years old and should theoretically be able to bounce back from this latest ailment.  I see no reason why he can’t get back to his usual scoring ways as early as midway through next season.

Ultimately, I don’t think this injury should affect your viewpoint.  This recent malady has nothing to do with his prior back and wrist surgeries, so if you’re a believer in the recovery rate of athletes with ACL tears then I don’t think it takes a great leap of faith to think Gronk will be back, and as good as ever next year.  For the low price of a fourth round pick, that’s a risk I’m willing to take.

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eric hardter