Dynasty Stock Market: ADP News & Notes

Ryan McDowell Posted On December 5, 2013

As most of you know by now, when it comes to dynasty football, I am infatuated with discussing and learning more about player value- how it changes and why, which players are rising or falling, and all other facets of the game that really boil down to value and how to use that changing value to build a better dynasty. This strong interest in player value is what led me to head the dynasty mock draft series over the past year. As I mentioned in a previous Stock Market, not only did I put together the off-season mock series, but I’ve continued that into the regular season to gauge how player value changes once those players actually step onto the field. The finding have been very interesting, concerning both individual players, as well some general trends I’ve spotted.

In mid-November, the second set of mock drafts began. This pair of twelve team mock drafts consisted of both dynasty players as well as some fantasy writers. The scoring system was PPR for all positions and the lineups were very flexible, with only one starter required from each positions and the remainder of the starting lineup filled with flex positions. This allows owners to follow the strategy of their choice rather than chasing certain positions due to lineup or scoring requirements. In turn, I feel this presents us with a truer picture of each player’s current market value. Here are some thoughts and observations about each position.

Quarterback:

This has proven to be the most stable of the four main fantasy positions. The top twelve quarterbacks are basically the same in November as they were in October as they were throughout the off-season, although the order of those signal callers has changed.
The overall value of the quarterback position has dropped off somewhat from last off-season. If you recall, last year we enjoyed breakout seasons from several quarterbacks, namely Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. Each of these players elevated themselves into the top ten and despite a bit of a letdown from some of these young players, their value remains fairly high. The depth at the position and possibly the realization that similar production can be had from veterans like Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger have caused all quarterbacks to slide down the draft.
As I just mentioned, last year was filled with upstart quarterbacks all over the dynasty landscape, but the same cannot be said this year. The rookie quarterbacks have disappointed as a whole, evident by both EJ Manuel and Geno Smith falling to the tenth round and beyond. At time this season, Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor looked like he could crash the top twelve group, but he doesn’t even have a starting job anymore. The most likely candidate to break up the stranglehold of the current top dozen is Eagles’ quarterback Nick Foles. Many in the dynasty world have recently begun to refer to him as a top ten dynasty quarterback, though at the time of our mock, he landed at QB15 with an average draft position (ADP) of 130.
Some owners are clearly looking under every rock for the next Colin Kaepernick or Nick Foles, talented reserve quarterbacks who took over the starting job and became a valuable dynasty asset. In fact, there were several backup quarterbacks drafted ahead of some low-end starters. For example, Ryan Mallett, Kirk Cousins and Brock Osweiler were all drafted ahead of Joe Flacco and Jake Locker. While I do not disagree with this, it is a changing trend from what we’ve seen in the past.

Running Back:

The running backs are another position that has seen an overall drop in value. A couple of the top backs have held their value and retained their first round ADP, but with the subpar performance of some of the most hyped backs, paired with outstanding and consistent wide receiver play, the value of running backs is not what it once was.
Rookie running backs Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard have crashed the top ten backs, both carrying an ADP of eighteen or better. This is a common trend, which we saw last year when rookies Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris were all valued among the top ten dynasty running backs. It is not unusual to see a second season falloff, as we have with Richardson this year.
Speaking of Richardson, it is no surprise that he, along with other busts David Wilson and Lamar Miller have fallen far off their ADP of the late off-season, but surprisingly, Richardson is still considered a top ten running back. Of course, that is before he was benched for Donald Brown. Expect Richardson to come in somewhere in the RB15-20 range in January mocks. Wilson, with the concern over his future, fell from RB10 in August to RB35 last month. At that point, he’s worth a shot. Finally, Miller was being drafted as a RB1 in August, despite doing next to nothing on the field as a rookie. He’s had an up and down sophomore season, but his value has deservedly fallen. He’s down to RB14, but his overall ADP fell twenty-five spots. This is another example of how the overall value of backs has tumbled.
Meanwhile, owners seem willing to still take a shot on unproven talent, especially when it comes to rookies. Christine Michael was drafted as RB22, Montee Ball was RB25 and Marcus Lattimore, despite not stepping on the field in over a year, was tabbed as RB32, well ahead of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter.
Despite their status as RB1s in many leagues, dynasty owners are not sold on a trio of veterans. Knowshon Moreno lasted until RB26 with an ADP of 82. Danny Woodhead was RB33 and Pierre Thomas really was disrespected, coming in as RB39 with an ADP well outside of the top 100.

Wide Receiver:

It is clear the current trend in dynasty leagues is to build around wide receivers. This is something I’ve been doing for a few years now and have enjoyed great success as a result. I would strongly recommend the strategy, but I also attempt to zig while others are zagging. So, will this move towards wide receivers as the cornerstone pieces of dynasty teams create some surprise value at other positions, especially running backs? You bet! Be ready to take advantage.
I’ve mentioned this on Twitter recently, but will say it again for our readers here. For the past couple of years, the core group of five wide receivers have been head and shoulders above all others, especially when it comes to how they are valued. Of course, this group consists of Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant. While it is not completely evident by this data, I believe that the Browns’ Josh Gordon can now count himself among this elite crowd. In this series of mocks, Gordon fell as WR6 with an overall ADP of 15. Expect that ADP to easily rise into the first round starting in January.
Other youngsters saw big jumps from August, including Deandre Hopkins, moving from WR25 to WR12, Keenan Allen (WR50 to WR18) and Alshon Jeffery (WR41 to WR19). Jeffery has really exploded since this data was gathered. Expect him too to push for a late first round or early second round ADP come January.
Of course, at the expense of all of this youth rising, there has to be players falling, and most of these are veterans. One major thing I noticed from the first set of in-season mocks to this set was a clear move towards youth. My theory is that owners in October were clearly drafting with the current season in mind. Veterans from all positions were selected early and often with little regard for age or long-term upside. In this second set, we saw the complete opposite. Age fell farther than ever as owners were already beginning to plan for next season.
Among the veterans with much lower ADP than you might expect are: Vincent Jackson (WR27/ADP of 59), Roddy White (WR39/ADP of 87), Dwayne Bowe (WR47/ADP of 102) and Marques Colston (WR53/ADP of 117).

Tight End:

The tight end position has seen more change than any other when looking at the top tier players. According to our ADP, as well as the rankings of most dynasty experts and players, the top five tight ends includes the ever present duo of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, but also is now completed by young breakout players Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas and Jordan Reed. All three are coming off the board by the beginning of the fourth round.
The solid veteran pair of Jason Witten and Vernon Davis is falling, but are the next tight ends off the board and are still being viewed as top ten players and startable assets.
The story of the past few weeks for dynasty owners has been Ladarius Green. I mentioned in last week’s Stock Market that he was easily voted as a top ten tight end, gaining more votes in some informal Twitter polls than Witten, Davis or any other tight end outside of those top five. Many voted even mentioned that they would rank him as highly as TE3 currently. While his ADP in November was only 109, making him TE12, expect him to come off the board in the fifth or sixth round range beginning in January.
Two young players that have been playing well lately are the Buccaneers Tim Wright and the Dolphins Charles Clay. Neither is being viewed as valuable dynasty players according to our data though. Wright was TE22 and Clay was just behind him at TE23. Both were drafted behind tight ends like Travis Kelce, Antonio Gates and Jared Cook.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.