Dynasty Stock Market: Twitter Polls

Ryan McDowell

cobbI love analyzing and discussing player value as it relates to dynasty leagues. My passion for this subject is what has led me to write this column each week for the past two seasons. Like all dynasty players, I have my own views and strategies I put into action when it comes to placing a value on specific players, but I am always open to the point of view of others as I look to mold my thinking in order to build better dynasty teams.

Over the past few days, I have been conducting some very unscientific polls of dynasty players via Twitter. As the season winds down, I wanted to find how dynasty owners are currently viewing the top players at each position. At each position, I think there are a few players we can all agree on that belong in everyone’s top ten list. Because of this, when asking the question to my Twitter followers, I listed a set of players from each position as “gimmes,” or players we all know belong in the top ten. After that, I asked respondents to complete the list with the remaining few players in order to fill a top ten list. The results were very interesting and, at times, surprising.

For the record, I did not include the quarterback position. Based on what I’ve seen the top ten quarterbacks are a pretty solid group and other than a few random votes for young guys like Ryan Tannehill or EJ Manuel, I did not expect much disagreement on a top ten including Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. Remember, the goal of this exercise is not necessarily to identify a specific order of the top players, but just to pinpoint a group forming the top ten.

Running Backs:

In asking the question of my Twitter followers, I presumed that most dynasty players would include LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Giovani Bernard and Eddie Lacy somewhere among their top ten running backs and I got very little disagreement with that thought. After receiving many responses, I tallied the votes and here are the results.

1 vote

Andre Brown, NYG
Stevan Ridley, NEP
Arian Foster, HOU
Kendall Hunter, SF
Marcus Lattimore, SF
Knowshon Moreno, DEN
DeMarco Murray

2 votes
Ben Tate
Reggie Bush
Ray Rice
Andre Ellington

3 votes
Trent Richardson

4 votes
Shane Vereen

5 votes
Christine Michael

17 votes
Le’Veon Bell

16 votes
Marshawn Lynch

19 votes
Alfred Morris

21 votes
CJ Spiller
Zac Stacy

22 votes
Adrian Peterson

27 votes
Matt Forte

This informal polling results in the following players making up the top ten running back list (in no particular order):

LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Zac Stacy, CJ Spiller and Alfred Morris.

There are many things to notice as we look over the voting. Beginning at the top, we can assume these players have similar dynasty value as a large group received just one vote. The lower down the ranks we go, the more variance you will find as individual preferences come to light. It is clear dynasty owners are not ready to trust Andre Brown or Knowshon Moreno despite their impressive play this season. Questions linger relating to Brown’s health and Moreno’s status next year. If he remains with the Broncos, he should be in line for another season as a fantasy starter, but if not, we could see the Moreno of old. Another storyline coming from the first group is that we see two 49ers backs receiving a single vote. Who takes over once Frank Gore is ready to call it a career? That is yet to be seen, but I would be investing in the talent of Marcus Lattimore. Finally, we see how the value of Arian Foster and Ray Rice has fallen so quickly. Rice has struggled this season and Foster’s season ended early due to a couple of injuries. Dynasty owners are clearly ready to move on and these two could prove to offer excellent value in 2014 startup drafts.

With just three votes, the Colts Trent Richardson has had the most dramatic fall since the pre-season, where many considered him to be the most valuable player in a dynasty league.  Through this poll, we see that dynasty owners value fourteen other running backs ahead of him. One person was even ashamed to admit that he still ranked Richardson inside his top fifteen.  I am still a strong believer in Richardson and would recommend buying him at his current market value. At his young age, I expect him to turn things around and considering his current cost, if I am wrong, I don’t lose much.

We see three other young running backs receiving votes as top ten running backs before there is a clear jump in value. Shane Vereen, Christine Michael and Le’Veon Bell are all hot names in dynasty leagues for varying reasons. Vereen has returned for an injury just in time to see double-digit targets on a weekly basis and his PPR value has boomed. Bell is the younger running back in the league and already has the starting job firmly in hand. He’s seeing plenty of touches and is involved in the passing game. You can’t ask for much more. Finally, Michael is one of the most hyped prospects around. He will very likely be this year’s version of David Wilson, being drafted in the second and third rounds of startup drafts despite little on field production.

Next, there is a huge gap in value as we go from Bell with seven votes up to Marshawn Lynch, who received sixteen. The players in this tier are, for the most part, established and proven dynasty commodities. They have seen little change in their value this season and remain low RB1/high RB2 options. This would include Lynch, Alfred Morris, CJ Spiller, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte. The outlier in this tier is rookie Zac Stacy, who has excelled since taking over as the Rams’ starting running back. I compare Stacy to Morris, not necessarily in terms of style of play, but instead their dynasty value. Bother entered their rookie season with little value and both have been able to ascend to the ranks of RB1- a top twelve running back. Part of that is due to their young age, but both players are producing. I would agree with the voters and prefer Stacy since he has shown to be an important part of the Rams’ passing offense as well, while Morris rarely gets any targets out of the backfield.

Finally, it’s also interesting to note which players failed to receive even a lone vote as a top ten running back. The highest ranked runner to do this, according the DLF dynasty rankings is the Dolphins Lamar Miller. Miller has struggled this season, but that’s true of the entire Miami offense. I will admit that Miller was overranked and overdrafted heading into the season, but I think now is a great time to acquire him and see if he can turn things around in 2014.

Wide Receivers:

Thinking about the current ranks of wide receivers is actually what got me started asking these questions on Twitter. We have all agreed for the past couple of seasons that the top five wide receivers have separated themselves from the rest. I think many are now including the Browns Josh Gordon in that group that already featured Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. But, I wanted to know what the consensus was after that group of six. I have seen many mention names of first and second year players and while it’s nice to be ahead of the trend, I wondered if this was becoming a wide spread opinion. I asked voters to list four other wide receivers that would comprise the top ten list and this is what I learned:

1 vote
Andre Johnson
Keenan Allen
Wes Welker
Vincent Jackson
Larry Fitzgerald
Michael Floyd

2 votes
TY Hilton
DeSean Jackson

5 votes
Torrey Smith
Pierre Garcon

9 votes
Antonio Brown

10 votes
Victor Cruz

11 votes
Percy Harvin

16 votes
Jordy Nelson

17 votes
Brandon Marshall

20 votes
Alshon Jeffery

22 votes
Randall Cobb

These responses leave us with a top ten wide receiver group including:

Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Jordy Nelson.

This time, let’s start at the top. As a University of Kentucky fan, I am glad to admit that Randall Cobb is my favorite player in the league and it is really no surprise to see him finish as the top vote getter and easily a top ten wide receiver. I think most dynasty owners ranked him among the top ten prior to his injury and there is no reason to think he won’t come back strong.

The next player is one that surprised me, and maybe I haven’t been watching the Bears Alshon Jeffery closely enough this season. He is currently WR14 in PPR leagues and has not seen a let down in his play, even with journeyman Josh McCown at quarterback. Jeffery should only get better from here and is already being valued higher than his teammate Brandon Marshall. Speaking of Marshall, it’s also no surprised to see he and the Packers Jordy Nelson on the list. Both are sometimes discounted as they are nearing thirty years of age, but both are consistent studs for their own teams and for fantasy teams. These are not players you should shy away from adding to your team if you get the chance. It’s also interesting to not, that the final four came from two teams, the Bears and Packers. Also, those four, along with Calvin Johnson, give us half of the top ten wideouts hailing from the NFL North. No wonder those defenses have looked so bad this season.

Below the final four wide receivers, we have a group of veteran wideouts who were not far behind- the Seahawks Percy Harvin, Victor Cruz of the Giants and the Steelers Antonio Brown, who is enjoying a career year and seeing a big bump in his dynasty value as a result.

The lowest tier is as expected, filled with players once considered elite, but now showing sign of slowing down, like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson, along with youngsters that we may not be quiet sold on yet, such as Keenan Allen or Michael Floyd. The way I’d use this information is try to find the owner in my league that still considers Johnson, Jackson, or Welker to be top ten wide receivers and flip them for one of the younger players on the list. Unfortunately, I think these types of owners are a rare find.

Tight Ends:

The current crop of tight ends are a unique grouped headed by two elite studs who no one seems to question as the top two tight ends in the game. After Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski though, there have been some gaps. Three young players having breakout seasons have quickly filled those gaps. These three, Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas and Jordan Reed, along with Graham and Gronkowski, form the group of players we can assume are among the top ten tight ends. Therefore, I was looking for five others from the voters. The results are listed below.

1 vote
Gavin Escobar
Jared Cook
Brandon Bostick
Garrett Graham
Vance McDonald
Travis Kelce
Delanie Walker
Austin Seferian-Jenkins

3 votes
Tim Wright

4 votes
Rob Housler
Zach Ertz

5 votes
Greg Olsen
Charles Clay

6 votes
Dennis Pitta
Martellus Bennett

8 votes
Kyle Rudolph

9 votes
Dwayne Allen

10 votes
Jason Witten

11 votes
Coby Fleener

24 votes
Tyler Eiffert

26 votes
Vernon Davis

31 votes
Ladarius Green

Judging by the names found on the list of players receiving one vote, it is clear dynasty owners are looking for the next Cameron or Thomas, players who had quiet starts to their career, only to blossom into top five players. To consider many of these players as top ten tight ends seems like a big reach now, but could turn into a great prediction in a year or two.

Perusing the other votes, one thing that stands out to me is the evident fall in value of Cowboys tight end Jason Witten, who barely makes our top ten list, just ahead of Dwanye Allen and Kyle Rudolph, both missing extended time with injuries.

Making our final five spots are young guys like Coby Fleener and Tyler Eiffert. Both are still relatively unproven, but were high draft picks the past couple of seasons and carry high value based on equally high expectations.

Finally, the most surprising name on this list to some might be the Chargers backup tight end Ladarius Green. Green has been stuck behind future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates the past two seasons, but just recently has shown some of the talent many dynasty owners expected to see. He has shown a knack for making big plays and he has seven receptions of twenty or more yards, including last week’s sixty-yard touchdown reception. Perhaps the most surprising thing to learn is that Green is still on the waiver wire of many dynasty leagues. If this is true of your league, do whatever you can to acquire him as soon as possible.

Nearly all of DLF’s top twenty tight ends received at least one vote in this query, except for two dealing with season ending injuries- Owen Daniels and Jermichael Finley. Daniels should come as no surprise, but it’s somewhat surprising to see that owners have so quickly given up on the Packers’ Finley.

One final thing that jumped out to me is the vote for incoming rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins. I did not specify that players had to currently be in the league and since we are so heavily focused on dynasty leagues, I was open to the inclusion of one of next season’s rookies. This also told me it would be a worthwhile experiment to try this again in the spring once we know which players will be included in the upcoming NFL draft.

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