Dynasty Mythbusters: Ladarius Green and Timothy Wright
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. The hype train often gets rolling much too quickly one way or the other on players.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
From this point forward, I’m not going to be focusing very much on this season but rather the long term outlook for 2014 and beyond. Let’s face it, at this point in time you’re either locked in with your starting roster and ready for the big championship push or you’re thinking about next year anyway. This week I want to take a look at a pair of young tight ends to see if either of them have a chance at being next year’s Jordan Cameron or Julius Thomas.
Ladarius Green, TE SD
Week Twelve Statline: 3 receptions on 5 targets for 80 yards and 1 touchdown.
Season Statline: 14 receptions on 19 targets for 309 yards and 1 touchdown.
The second year pro out of small school Louisiana-Lafayette (which for the record have one of the best team names in the nation, The Ragin’ Cajuns!) was a fourth round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. During his rookie season he was almost non-existent with only four targets all season even though future hall of famer Antonio Gates was on and off the field all year with injuries.
The 2013 season started much the same as the 2012 season when he only had four targets through the first six weeks of the season. Things have changed over the last two weeks though with back to back weeks of five targets. He has had 81 and 80 yards during those two weeks and has shown to be an explosive weapon for a Chargers offense that seems to have found some new life. Can we expect his role to continue to grow, possibly even replacing the aging Gates in the not too distant future or is this just a little blip on the radar?
The Good: Looking at Green, the biggest item that stands out to most people is he fits the image we all have of a top tight end. He is 6’6”, 240 pounds and extremely athletic. His 4.53 second time in the forty yard dash is better than a lot of wide receivers in the NFL. When you combine it with great lower body explosion, quick feet, and very nice leaping ability you have a bit of a physical freak. He is exactly the type of player that can create mismatches over the middle of the field and down the seams that NFL teams are so fond of these days.
Both in college and over the past few weeks he has shown the ability to use his speed to run past defenders. If he can’t just run past them, he has the body control and ability to high point the ball that allows him to go up and over defenders. He also does a very nice job of using his large frame to his advantage, boxing out defenders and reaching for the ball when needed.
The Bad: With everything I just said, Green sounds like the perfect prospect and someone who should have been a top round pick in the NFL Draft. There are a few holes in his game that made him a fourth round pick in the first place. Coming from a small school, a lot of his college production was a result of him being a better athlete than everyone else on the field. He was able to out run, out jump, and out muscle pretty much any defender that he faced – this doesn’t work as well in the NFL where everyone on the field is a gifted athlete.
Over the last year and a half, he has struggled with many of the finer points of playing the tight end position in the NFL. His route running is sloppy, he struggles to beat press coverage at the line, and he doesn’t know how to block defenders at the NFL level. In other words, he doesn’t really know how to play football. He has all of the physical talent in the world, but he is very raw and needs a lot of refining, even now after nearly two years in the league. There is a reason that it has taken almost two full seasons before he has seen any kind of significant snaps for the Chargers, and the work isn’t done yet.
The other knock against Green from a statistics standpoint goes back to some research that our own Jeff Haverlack did this past summer. If you missed the article, you can find it here. The short of it, as it pertains to Green, is that tight end productivity drops off sharply as the rounds go on. In fact, only about 13% of all tight ends drafted in the fourth round over the last decade have gone on to be productive fantasy assets. That doesn’t mean he can’t, just that he is a long shot. Then again, so are a lot of the prospects that we fawn over.
The Ugly Truth: Green definitely has talent to spare and his recent work on the field is a definite reason to be optimistic. However, you need to keep it all in context. His five targets in week 11 were fourth most on his team while the five targets in week 12 were third most (with two others getting four targets). In other words, the Chargers are throwing the ball a lot over the last few weeks and spreading the ball around to as many people as possible. The fact that Green has done a lot with his catches is very good news, but it is also concerning when you realize that if the passing attempts get scaled back it will likely be at Green’s expense.
The Chargers haven’t been using Green as a tight end over the last few weeks but rather as a substitute receiver to help make up for all of the injuries that have been suffered this year. While his route running has improved a bit, he still struggles against press coverage and is a liability as a blocker. The good news is that this is much the same story for Julius Thomas. The problem is that the Philip Rivers led Chargers aren’t quite on par with the Peyton Manning led Broncos. The Chargers don’t have the weapons to be as high flying as the Broncos which will limit Green’s upside.
Down the road, I expect Green to be a part of the offense for the Chargers. His playmaking ability is undeniable and his athletic ability is off the charts. He could be next year’s Julius Thomas, but I think his team will make the statlines a little less impressive than those of Thomas. I also think that he needs to continue to improve his blocking ability to be more of a full time player. If he’s out on your waiver wire or being undervalued by his current owner, he is definitely worth going after. He could be a solid TE2 in 2014 with a chance to sneak into the back end of the top 10 at his position if he continues to improve. His price tag will likely skyrocket this offseason much like we saw for guys like Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, Robert Housler, and Jared Cook last offseason as everyone tries to find the next Jimmy Graham. If you’re going after Green, make your move sooner rather than later.
Timothy Wright, TE TB
Week Twelve Statline: 8 catches on 9 targets for 75 yards.
Season Statline: 34 receptions on 45 targets for 366 yards and two touchdowns.
The undrafted rookie free agent out of Rutgers found his way to Tampa Bay thanks to his familiarity with former Rutgers and now Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano. Wright was buried on the depth chart at the start of the season, but due to a multitude of injuries at the position as well as growing chemistry with fellow rookie Mike Glennon, Wright has seen his role on the field grow as the season has gone on.
At the current point in time, Wright is actually second in fantasy points for rookie tight ends behind only Jordan Reed. When you consider he didn’t see any significant playing time until the fourth week of the season that is even more impressive for the undrafted rookie. The big question is of course if we can expect him to continue to be in the company of Reed and Tyler Eifert as the years go on or if this is merely a case of him being the only healthy option on his team.
The Good: Wright already has played significant snaps in eight games so far this season and in half of those he has managed five or more catches. He has shown great chemistry with Glennon and knowledge of the game plan has helped to ease his transition to the NFL. He has shown reliable hands, decent route running, and above average athleticism while taking advantage of soft coverage over the middle of the field due to defenses keying in on the outside receivers.
The lack of established pass catchers for the Buccaneers is another definite plus for Wright’s outlook in the future. With Vincent Jackson aging, Mike Williams having injury issues, and virtually no one else on roster that can catch a pass, there is a lot of room for someone that has shown his ability to be productive.
The Bad: Measuring in at 6’3” and 220 pounds, Wright is more of a big receiver than a tight end. He isn’t even a really big receiver with numerous big names having better size than Wright possesses. Some of the smaller tight ends and H-back types make up for their lack of size with superior athleticism and skilled blocking, but Wright doesn’t have those qualities. While he is athletic, I don’t think he is athletic enough to make up for his lack of size. He also struggles when asked to block.
The other major concern is that Wright was an undrafted free agent that was given a chance to be on the field because his former college coach is now an NFL coach. With all of the talk surrounding Schiano’s future, it is fair to wonder what will happen down the road if Schiano isn’t there next year. Would another coach without the history with Wright have given him the chance?
The Ugly Truth: When I watch Wright, there isn’t really anything to his game that makes him stand out. By in large, he just seems to be a guy in a good situation. His production seems to be more because Glennon really doesn’t have anyone else to throw the ball to other than Jackson. Wright isn’t breaking off big plays, doesn’t have the size to be a major red zone threat, and doesn’t seem to be a great fit at the position. If it wasn’t for the injuries to guys in front of him and his relationship with the coach I highly doubt he would have seen the field. He is simply the best option that Tampa has right now at a depleted position.
In 2014 and beyond, I think people really need to temper expectations for Wright. There should be a lot of better options for the club in the draft or in free agency to upgrade the position. If you own Wright and can swap him for someone with higher upside, I would definitely do that. Maybe you can find an owner that is sleeping on a player like Green or even the likes of Adrien Robinson and get a pick tossed in as well. I think Wright is easily replicable long term and a very inconsistent option for the remainder of this season. Look elsewhere for your future at the position.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
