IDP Watch: Week Eleven

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to be aware of. Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns, or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores. These are huge indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

Here are some players to keep an eye on based on week eleven performances:

Vincent Rey, MLB CIN

Rey continues to play exceptionally well in place of the injured Rey Maualuga. Again in week eleven, Rey finished playing every down on his way to seven tackles and five assists. Over the last three weeks, he’s a top five linebacker behind only Paul Worrilow. By now, he should be rostered in all formats. He looks to be a player who will be around both through the end of 2013 and in future seasons. He’s excelling in areas that Maualuga struggled and, the bottom line is he’s making plays.

Tank Carder, ILB CLE

With Craig Robertson out with a knee injury, Carder moves into the starting inside linebacker spot and will start the second game of his career in week twelve. In relief of Robertson in week eleven, Carder played 61 percent of the team’s snaps and posted two tackles and five assists – not horrible for a team that faced below average tackle opportunities against the Bengals. If you’re in need of a short-term option who will face ample tackle opportunities, Carder is a worthy target given his inside linebacker position.

Paul Worrilow, MLB ATL

Last week I noted Worrilow was likely to see a dip in production with the return of Sean Weatherspoon. Well, that didn’t happen yet. Both guys played 100 percent of the team’s snaps given the match-up against the Buccaneers and Worrilow excelled yet again. He finished the day with thirteen tackles and three assists. Given the favorable match-up and the lack of need for dime subpackages, both linebackers stayed on the field for the game. I still believe there will be a dip in production against pass-heavy teams with Weatherspoon playing more subpackages than Worrilow. He’ll still be productive, but his opportunities should be scaled back in those situations. Regardless of the snap breakdown though, he’s a very solid option going forward.

Update based on last night’s game:

Worrilow again led the team in tackles and outplayed Weatherspoon despite lower than expected tackle opportunities against the Saints. He finished the night playing 95% of the team’s snaps, while Weatherspoon played 100%. While fewer snaps, it’s not an impacting difference. It appears that Worrilow’s value and production is not impacted by Weatherspoon’s return as much as originally expected. 

Jason Worilds, OLB PIT

Worilds is finally showing signs of being the player that many hoped he would be. He lost his job to Jarvis Jones earlier in the year, but earned it back and hasn’t relinquished control. While he’s not terribly appealing in tackle heavy leagues, over the past three weeks Worilds has put up three sacks, seven quarterback pressures, 11 tackles and four assists. In big-play leagues, he should be on the IDP radar and added depending on league depth. Last week, Worilds played from the left side with LaMarr Woodley out and played quite well. There has been some talk about whether Worilds maintains that spot when Woodley’s back. Don’t worry about the Steelers’ potential logjam at outside linebacker as Worilds is set to be a free agent after this season. He’s a compelling long-term option in big-play leagues.

Allen Bailey, DE KC

This is a deeper option given he’s stuck in a 3-4 base scheme, but the third year player may be situated to grab a starting gig in 2014. He’s currently behind Tyson Jackson and Mike Devito on the depth chart, but with the injury to Devito, Bailey played the most snaps among the Chief’s defensive ends in week eleven. He finished the game with five tackles and an assist, which is a productive week for a 3-4 defensive end. With Jackson set to be a free agent in 2014, Bailey could emerge as a starter in 2014. Some have termed Bailey a physical specimen, so he’s intriguing given his athleticism and the potential opportunity at hand.

Colin McCarthy, MLB TEN

Week eleven was the fourth straight week of solid production for McCarthy. It seems he’s back after a one year injury hiatus. Over the last four games, he’s played 88 percent of the team’s snaps and virtually 100 percent of the team’s snaps in three of those four weeks. Over that time, he accumulated 28 tackles, eight assists and one interception which has put him in the top 15 linebackers over the five week period (four games) on an average points per game basis. It appears that McCarthy is back to 2011 form and a reliable option on a weekly basis in tackle heavy leagues. This improvement has pushed Zach Brown out of the subpackage role, though, which has made Brown an unreliable IDP option. Akeem Ayers and McCarthy are the subpackage linebackers for the Titans now.

Aaron Williams, SS BUF

This year’s move to strong safety has vaulted Williams into fantasy relevance and facilitated a breakout season. He’s consistently producing and is firmly a top five safety option in most tackle heavy leagues. He’s versatile enough to play either safety or cornerback, but it appears that the coaching staff prefers that he stick at strong safety – that’s certainly where he’s been most effective. The Bills’ 2013 scheme change under new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine served Williams well and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue in future years.

Marcell Dareus, DT BUF

Sticking with the Bills and positive impacts of the 2013 scheme change, it’s also been positive for Dareus who is having the best year of his three year career. Through 11 games in 2013, he’s almost matched his 2012 production already. Not only is he contributing in run support, but also getting to the quarterback with 21 quarterback hurries on the year. Dareus is a young defensive cornerstone who should be around for years and if continues to perform at this level, he’s a blue chip IDP defensive tackle required player.

Quanterius Smith, DE, DEN

He hasn’t played a snap in 2013 and is on injured reserve, but Smith is a physical freak that is worth a stash. He has the ability to be a long-term DL1. If you have the room and/or your rosters are deep enough, Smith is a must add given the potential and the positive impact Von Miller will have on other pass-rushing options. With the protection that Miller commands, it’ll present the other end with favorable opportunities.

Deep Dynasty Looks

Duron Harmon, SS NE

With Steve Gregory out, Harmon played 83 percent of the team’s snaps and contributed with three tackles in week eleven. Not a terribly meaningful performance for IDP purposes, but Harmon’s snaps continue to increase as the season progresses. Belichick appears to trust the rookie who may be a long-term safety option for the Patriots.

Sylvester Williams, DT DEN

In defensive tackle required leagues, Williams is another great stash candidate. Most notably, while he hasn’t appeared much in the box score, defensive coordinator had some positive things to say about Williams over the last few weeks. He claims the lack of production is due to limited opportunities due to depth at the position and Williams is playing well in practice. The Broncos still believe Williams has a bright future with the team.

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