Herding Stats: Week Twelve

There’s a saying, “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Case Keenum

Yeah, I’m really advocating starting a player who was benched in the third quarter of their previous game, really. Keenum is facing the second worst defense in terms of giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks in the Jaguars. Jacksonville is giving up the third most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks at 20 touchdowns, while intercepting a league low four passes giving it, by far, the worst touchdown to interception ratio in the league. Meanwhile Houston is attempting the fifth most passes in the league at 40.2 attempts per game and completing the seventh most passes in the NFL at 24.7 per game. A big part of this is due to the absence of Arian Foster, which has dramatically altered the Texans’ offensive game planning. For instance, in the last three games the Texans have the sixth most passing touchdowns per game at 2.3 per game which is far above their season average of 1.6 per game. Furthermore, Houston has been passing the ball 63.77% of the time over this same span, which again outpaces their season average of 61.39% well above their 2012 average of 54.11%. This fits perfectly into their match-up with the Jaguars who are allowing the seventh highest pass completion percentage to opposing teams at 65.85% and the third most passing touchdowns to opposing teams with 2.0 per game. Look for Keenum to tee off against the hapless Jaguars and get his mojo back.

Running Back Focus:  Matt Forte

This week Matt Forte has the match-up every running back circles on their calendar, the Rams. St. Louis is giving up the third most fantasy points to running backs this season and those points are coming a variety of ways. The Rams are giving up the fourth most rushing touchdowns, the seventh most rushing yards, the eleventh most rush attempts, the fourth most passing touchdowns and the second most passing yards to running backs. Taken together what more do you need to know other than running backs have great days against the Rams? Need more? How about the fact that Chicago is gaining the sixth most yards per rush attempt while Forte is packing in roughly 37 receiving yards per game? Additionally, the last time Forte visited St. Louis in 2008 he was able to rush 21 times for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Call me crazy but I think it’s fairly plain to see that the Rams defense has gotten worse since then and Forte has only gotten better. After the mudfest he experienced last weekend, he will likely be looking to stretch his legs in the weatherless Edward Jones Dome.

Wide Receiver Focus:  Tampa Bay WRs

By Tampa Bay wide receivers we’re basically talking about Vincent Jackson here, but that’s OK, he should be a great play. The Bucs are facing the Lions, the second worst team against fantasy wide receivers this season and the absolute worst this week since the Eagles are on bye. The Lions have given up the third most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers while surrendering the fourth most passing yards to opposing wide receivers. What really stands out about the Detroit passing defense is that it is giving up the sixth most yards per completion in the league. Opposing offenses know that the Lions pass defense is their weakness and have capitalized on it by attempting the second highest pass play percentage in the league against Detroit with 64.17% of all plays being pass attempts. Jackson meanwhile has the eleventh most receiving yards in the NFL at 827 yards and ranks as fifteenth in receiving yards per game with 82.7 yards gained on average. He also has the seventh most 20+ yard receptions with 13 and has been targeted with the second most passes in the NFL. Look for the Bucs to fall behind early and lean heavily on Jackson to get them back in the game while he racks up the statistics in garbage time.

Tight End Focus:  Rob Gronkowski

So this is the second time Gronkowski has appeared as the featured tight end start and the reasoning is obvious, he’s THAT good! However, this week he’s got a really juicy matchup that should tantalize owners and worry fantasy opponents, he faces the Broncos. For all the offense that Denver puts up, their defense has some glaring holes, specifically when facing tight ends. The Broncos give up the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends, central to these points are the number of receiving yards they are giving up. Denver has given up 822 receiving yards to tight ends, the second most in the NFL. Factor in that Denver usually jumps out ahead which requires their opponents to pass to play catch-up, just as many expect New England to have to do and this certainly gets a lot more interesting. Gronkowski is second in yards per reception for tight ends with over 20 catches with 14.3 yards accumulated per catch. He is also the league leader in yards per game among tight ends with 85.8 yards per game. It’s also worth noting that Gronkowski has been averaging six receptions per game since his return off of average of 10 receptions per game. Furthermore, he has had a 20+ yard reception in every game since his return. Gronkowski is a must start every week but I expect him to have one of the best games of the season this weekend.

Defensive Team Focus:  Titans

Despite being overlooked by most, Tennessee has actually been playing some pretty good football defensively. Look for that trend to continue as the Titans face the Raiders this weekend. The Raiders are giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season and, while I may be in the minority, I just don’t buy that Matt McGloin is their answer at quarterback. Regardless of my personal opinion on McGloin, here’s what I do know, the Titans are a stingy defense. Tennessee is giving up the tenth least yards to opposing offenses this season with 330 total yards being given up on average. The Titans are allowing the eighth least completed passes per game with about 20 completions per game and the seventh least passing yards per game with 213 yards per game. If the Raiders are looking to score through the air they’ve chosen the wrong opponent to since Tennessee is allowing the least passing touchdowns in the NFL with only 0.7 passing touchdowns being allowed per game! If you’re pinning your fantasy hopes on a second string rookie quarterback against this defense then might I suggest planning for next season.

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