The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) In my 12-team, non-PPR league I have Jermichael Finley and Jordan Reed on my roster and I can only roster two tight ends. Ladarius Green and Zach Ertz are both available and I was wondering if should I cut ties with Finley for one of them? – Matt in OH
Before suffering a scary neck injury in an October tilt versus the Cleveland Browns, Packers’ tight end Jermichael Finley was having a career renaissance of sorts. In five games (he suffered a concussion before recording any stats in a week three clash with the Bengals) Finley had already amassed 25 receptions for 300 yards and three touchdowns, averaging out to a weekly line of 5/60/0.6. Excluding the afore-mentioned game against Cincinnati, Finley was scoring 9.6 non-PPR points per contest, a number that would currently rank him as the TE6 on a per-game basis amongst qualifiers at the position.
It’s because of that type of potential that it pains me to advise you to cut ties with the injured Packer. After being recently placed on injured reserve, Finley isn’t going to be able to help you anymore this year, and it’s no guarantee he’ll be able to help you ever again. Recent speculation has suggested Finley will indeed require corrective surgery on his neck, and that his career could in fact be over. Even in a best-case scenario of Finley continuing to play, he would more than likely do so outside of the friendly confines of Lambeau Field – and as we’ve seen with former Packer Greg Jennings, the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
As for who to pick up, it’s definitely a tough decision. While I like San Diego’s Ladarius Green, his physical gifts have yet to translate to significant playing time. He’s more than likely the next man up when the venerable Antonio Gates begins to slow down, but with your positional limits it’s prudent to roster players who have both upside and the potential to contribute sooner rather than later. Green just can’t offer that right now.
As it turns out though, the Eagles’ Zach Ertz is just that type of player. Despite his rookie status, Ertz is the most targeted tight end on the team, and he’s been slowly but surely pushing positional mate Brent Celek into a predominantly blocking role. With the passing pecking order still relatively unsettled, Ertz could rise to prominence as soon as next year. New coach Chip Kelly is still installing his offensive system and it stands to reason that the former second round pick is going to be a big part of it.
2.) In a 12-team PPR league, would you trade Montee Ball and a top-three 2014 draft pick for Trent Richardson? – Eric in PA
Despite the likelihood I now represent the clear minority, I’ve made no bones about the fact I’m a believer in the Colts’ Trent Richardson. Yes, his numbers remain subpar, and no, a trade to Indianapolis didn’t jump start his career the way many expected. However, much like with Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch, you never know if it’s too early to give up on a player who possesses transcendent physical gifts.
Continuing, I’m aware Richardson is far from blameless, but in my opinion the Colts haven’t put him in a position to succeed. Their below average run blocking remains a huge impediment and vanilla play-caller Pep Hamilton appears to lack the ability to think outside the box (cue to the owners of Andrew Luck solemnly nodding their heads in unison). T-Rich is rarely utilized in space and his mystifyingly sparse usage in the passing game (1.0 receptions per game compared to 3.4 as a rookie) telegraphs the intent of nearly every run play. Given the totality of the above, I have a hard time seeing Richardson contribute in a meaningful fashion before 2014.
Regardless of that belief, I’m still very much on the bandwagon. But with that said, even our hopes and expectations as dynasty owners must eventually be by pacified cold, hard reason. As such, there’s no way I would give up Broncos’ running back Montee Ball plus a top-three 2014 draft pick for Richardson right now.
Simply put, the value just isn’t there. While I view Richardson as a great buy-low, this potential trade represents the type of premium you’d pay for a player with an actual proven track record. Sure, Ball has disappointed his way to being soundly passed by Knowshon Moreno, but he’s still a second-round draft pick, and Moreno’s future in Denver remains murky. Having already bypassed the disappointing Ronnie Hillman, Ball could find himself as the team’s primary ball carrier as soon as next year.
Even more important to the deal at hand is the presence of a coveted 2014 draft pick. Next year’s draft class looks to be loaded at the top, and that type of potential has been known to seduce even the most even-keeled dynasty owners. As such, I’d be surprised if most owners would part with “just” the pick to acquire Richardson, let alone the pick plus Ball. You shouldn’t view this any differently – in this case, the groupthink mentality just might be onto something.
3.) In my 12-man, non-PPR league, I have both Hakeem Nicks and DeAndre Hopkins as keepers. I will have to drop one at the beginning of next year’s draft. Who should I keep? – Jim in CA
Similar to Richardson above, the Giants’ Hakeem Nicks represents another of dynasty football’s biggest lightning rods. On one hand, he’s flashed an elite skillset, even finishing as high as the non-PPR WR8 in 2010. On the other hand, he’s had issues staying on the field (nine career missed games), and has effectively been bypassed by teammate Victor Cruz as the top target in New York’s receiving game. Given that, I’d venture to say the only thing consistent about him is his inconsistency!
On the other side of the fence sits Houston rookie DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins currently resides as the third best fantasy rookie receiver behind only the Cowboys’ Terrance Williams and the Chargers’ Keenan Allen, making the Texans look wise by selecting him in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. He’ll struggle to become an elite asset while Andre Johnson, whose demise was greatly exaggerated, is still around, but the future appears bright.
As such I think you should hang onto Hopkins. No, he hasn’t proven as much as Nicks on the professional level, but when you compare the two players it’s not hard to see they’re moving in opposite directions. Nicks just hasn’t produced in his contract year, and it remains a mystery as to where he’ll be catching passes in 2014. Conversely, Hopkins has already taken over as the second option in a suddenly revitalized Houston passing attack. That upside alone is enough to seal the deal for me.
4.) In my 12-team, half-PPR league, both Christine Michael and Michael Floyd are on the waiver wire. I think both are very good players I would like to add to my squad, but I have no idea who I would drop. So I was wondering how you would rank these four players: Michael, Floyd, Bernard Pierce and Kendall Wright. – Kevin in MN
I think this list has to begin with the player who has proven the most – Tennessee’s Kendall Wright. I was never very high on Wright, and didn’t view his rookie numbers as anything special due to a grotesque average of 9.8 yards-per-catch. However, Wright has really stepped up in his sophomore year, and leads the team at 5.6 receptions per game. Given your half-PPR format, that’s an extra 2.8 points every week. On an (hopefully) improving offense, Wright is trending in the, well, right direction.
Next up is another improving player in Arizona’s Michael Floyd. Despite the scattershot accuracy of Carson Palmer, as well as a leaky and injury-riddled offensive line, Floyd has definitively built upon a strong end of his 2012 season. With fellow receiver Larry Fitzgerald beginning to suffer the lingering effects of chronic injuries, it might not be too much of a stretch to expect Floyd to take over as the number one option in the passing game as soon as next year – the future is bright.
Continuing, I’ll place Ravens running back Bernard Pierce just a hair below. Yes, it’s been an abysmal year for the entire Baltimore running game, but I chalk that up to poor offensive line play, as well as a lack of playmakers to open up the field. Starter Ray Rice appears to have lost a step (or two), and coach John Harbaugh has already declared the backfield touches will be distributed on a “hot hand” basis from here on out. Pierce could get his shot at an appreciable amount of carries by the end of this year.
Rounding out the list is Seattle’s Christine Michael. I’m sure I’ll catch some heat for his placement, but I’m just not a devout member of the Church of Michael. He has undeniable physical talent, but who knows when or if we’ll get to see it? Starter Marshawn Lynch is still under contract, and I’m a believer he’ll return to the Emerald City for the 2014 season. Moreover, backup Robert Turbin is no slouch in his own right. By the time Michael gets his shot, my guess is we’ll already be hooked on the “next big thing” at the position.
Regardless, this is a good problem to have. All four players represent solid dynasty stashes, and in the case of Wright and Floyd, borderline starters. No matter which direction you choose to take, the back end of your roster won’t be lacking for potential.
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