Herding Stats: Week Ten

There’s a saying, “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Drew Brees

Drew Brees is a must start nearly every week, but this week he’s a “You better start him in you value your fantasy career” kind of start. Everything about this match-up screams “start Brees”. First off, The Cowboys give up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Second, Dallas has allowed the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks of any team in the NFL this season with 2907 passing yards surrendered or 323 yards per game. Third, the Cowboys have given up the third most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks with 16 being scored this season, just a hair under two per game. Fourth, the Saints score the second most passing touchdowns per game in the NFL with 2.6 being scored per game. Fifth, Brees is the second leading passer through nine weeks of the season, trailing only Peyton Manning in the number of yards thrown thus far. Sixth, opponents attempt the second most passes in the NFL against the Dallas defense, while the Cowboys give up the third most completions in the league. Seventh and finally, New Orleans attempts the fifth most passes in the NFL, and they complete the fourth most passes in the league. When taken in an overall view this game will likely be a shootout, one in which Brees should added to the Cowboys woes when defending the pass coupled with a healthy boost to his own season statistics.

Running Back Focus:  Adrian Peterson

Admittedly this also isn’t a ground-breaking prediction here, but Adrian Peterson is in line to have a very nice game. However, this series isn’t about making solid predictions on what a player will do as it is about highlighting what the numbers are telling us in terms of how a player MIGHT do. Now then, Peterson’s game is on that oh-so-lovely showcase of professional football, Thursday night. Yeah, I’m thrilled about it also. However, the Vikings will be facing off against the worst defense in the NFL when it comes to giving up fantasy points to NFL running backs, the Washington team of those who shall not be named. Washington isn’t really giving up a staggering amount of rushing yards to opposing running backs (808 yards) but what is hurting them is that they are giving up the third most passing yards to running backs (415). That breaks down to about 52 passing yards per game being given up to running backs, Peterson meanwhile is a very apt pass catcher out of the backfield with just a hair under 20% of all of his yards coming through the air. As for Washington’s rushing defense, they are giving up roughly 117 rushing yards per game, the 11th most in the NFL so Peterson should have plenty of options come Thursday night, and he figures to be a central focus of the Vikings game plan, even more so then he normally is.

Wide Receiver Focus:  Steelers WRs

When it comes to defenses that wide receivers want to face, or circle on the calendar, the Bills are way up there. Buffalo is giving up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers so expect some big points coming out of this game for the Steelers. The Bills are giving up the most touchdowns to wide receivers with 1.6 touchdowns being given up per game which makes this a great match-up for opposing wide receivers. What’s more is that the Bills are giving up the second most passing yards to wide receivers in the NFL so even if a wide receiver isn’t grabbing himself a touchdown on this defense, they are still racking up the yards. Meanwhile the Steelers aren’t exactly shying away from airing the ball out either with the tenth most attempts per game in the NFL at 38.6 per game and the seventh most completions per game at 25.1 per game. Pittsburgh makes for nearly the perfect team to take advantage of the Bills defense with over 67% of all plays run by the Steelers offense being passes, the second most in the NFL. Additionally, the Steelers gain over 78% of all of their offensive yards through the air, the fourth most in the NFL and 80% of all their touchdowns coming through the air, the fifth most in the NFL. Look for Pittsburgh’s wide receivers to have a big day against an exploitable Bills passing defense on Sunday.

Tight End Focus:  Jimmy Graham

Continuing with the theme of, “No kidding, I should start him?” at the tight end position Jimmy Graham has a killer matchup this week. Even if Graham didn’t have a prime match-up, he usually finds tons of ways to put up great statistics.  However, when he is given an easier match-up he tends to put up even more points for fantasy owners. This week Graham faces off against Dallas, and just as with Brees, Graham is facing a defense that is tailor-made for his style of play. The Cowboys are giving up the second most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing tight ends. Additionally, Dallas is has given up the most receptions to tight ends in the league off of the third most targets in the league. This has resulted in the third most receiving yards being given up to tight ends. When you match Graham up with this defense you suddenly start to get that feeling that this could be just one of those big games that an elite player can have given the right circumstance. Graham meanwhile, besides being the premiere tight end stud in the league that we all know him to be, is having another incredible year. Graham is leading tight ends in receiving yards and touchdowns. He ranks second in yards per game for tight ends with 93.2, second only to Rob Gronkowski. He is also second in yards per reception among tight ends with over 20 on the year with 15.2 yards per reception, second only to Vernon Davis. Finally, he leads the league in receptions over 20 yards and 40 yards by tight ends. In a game that figures to be a shootout Graham is looking like the tight end to start this Sunday, even more than any other Sunday.

Defensive Team Focus:  Cardinals

Arizona is one of those defenses that people just may hold onto going into a bye week, they are just on that borderline right now. This week the Cardinals face the Texans. What a lot of people don’t know is that Houston is actually giving up the third most points to opposing defenses behind only the Giants and the Jaguars. This week Arizona is especially lucky because they are hitting the Texans when their star running back, Arian Foster, is likely to sit out. His back-up, Ben Tate is also dealing with injury issues of his own. This is likely to make the Houston squad extremely one-dimensional. Enter the Cardinals who give up the eighth least yards per completion in the league and force the sixth most incompletions per game. Arizona is also causing 1.5 interceptions per game, the second most in the NFL and causing 1.4 fumbles per game, the 12th most in the NFL while recovering 0.9 fumbles per game, the sixth most in the NFL. Houston looks likely to improve that number for the Cardinals as the Texans throw the fourth most interceptions per game with 1.4 interceptions given up on average per game. Both teams are averaging 2.9 sacks/sacks allowed per game so you can likely expect somewhere around three sacks in this game also. This game wouldn’t surprise me if it saw the Cardinal leave with a victory and one of the best defensive squad scores of the week.