The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. In my 10-team, half-PPR superflex league I am in no way in contention now or next year with my current rebuild. My two quarterbacks are Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson, and I recently received an offer of Christine Michael, Marcus Lattimore and a first rounder for Wilson. I have a definite weakness at running back, so is this a responsible move to balance my team, or is the hit on my quarterbacks too large? This would give me two late first rounders in 2014. – DZ in TX
The concept of multi-quarterback leagues is a subject I’ve mentioned in Mailbags past, and also dedicated an entire interview to with 2QB guru Sal Stefanile of the XN Sports Network. Simply put, a superflex or 2QB league is a whole different animal than what the majority of standard-system players are used to. Therefore you can basically throw the “consensus” rankings out the window, as it’s more than likely you’ll ultimately base your entire draft strategy around acquiring a robust collection of quality signal callers.
So when you see trades like the one proposed to DZ above, it’s imperative to view them with a different lens. Quarterbacks are king, and proven young assets like the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson should command a fortune on the trade market. As such, this would be an easy decline for me.
Christine Michael and Marcus Lattimore represent a pair of players who can be defined by one word – hype. Yes, both are talented, but for varying reasons neither has had an opportunity to let their physical gifts translate onto the field. Michael is stuck behind one of the game’s best in Marshawn Lynch (and ostensibly backup Robert Turbin as well) until perhaps the 2015 season, and Lattimore is still recovering from a catastrophic knee injury suffered in college. The potential is there, but at least for now remains dormant.
That’s the biggest issue here – in this type of league you can’t give up a proven asset at the most valuable position for potential alone. Wilson is not only the best player in the deal (I firmly believe he’s a top 15 pick in superflex leagues), but he’s the only one who’s demonstrated his skills at the professional level. Since you’re attempting to rebuild I can understand the allure, but you need to set your sights higher than a trio of lottery tickets (including the pick). If you can’t snare a player like the Packers’ Eddie Lacy or the Bengals’ Gio Bernard, I’d just stand pat and let Wilson’s value continue to increase. There’s nothing wrong with centering your rebuilding efforts around him.
2. Like many others I’ve been ravaged at the wide receiver position, losing Reggie Wayne, Mike Williams, and Sidney Rice already. In my PPR league we are allowed two IR spots and I need to free up a roster spot – which one should I release? – Jason in MN
When facing decisions like these there are a few main factors I take into account: skill level when healthy, age and type of injury/injury history. Let’s look at all three and break down your trio of walking wounded:
Mike Williams, WR TB – Given the qualifiers above, I think Williams is the most obvious candidate for an IR spot. At 26 he’s still relatively young, and has already shown the ability to function as a PPR WR2. Finally, he has a relatively short injury history, and his torn hamstring is correctable via surgery. He’s at risk for recurrent hamstring woes, but the upside is undeniable.
Reggie Wayne, WR IND – Wayne will go down in NFL history as one of the all-time greats, but he has a gigantic red flag – age. Turning 35 in just a few weeks, it could be tough for Wayne to overcome the torn ACL he suffered a few weeks ago and return to his previous standard. However, he’s one of the hardest workers in the league, and until this injury has never missed a game in his career. I’d hang onto the venerable Colt and hope he can offer WR3 or FLEX upside for another year or two.
Sidney Rice, WR SEA – By process of elimination, I think Rice should be given his walking papers. Truthfully this isn’t even that tough of a decision, as the former Viking WR1 has appeared lost since signing in Seattle, and also has an injury history a mile long. By virtue of suffering both a torn ACL and a concussion, Rice has undoubtedly played his last game as a Seahawk, and his time as a fantasy contributor is likely over as well.
3. Should owners looking ahead to 2014 take a chance on guys like Justin Blackmon, Danario Alexander and Jeremy Maclin? All are under 26 and have upside once they recover from their respective injuries and off-field issues. Would it be a better strategy to just acquire draft picks instead? – Bo in FL
As dynasty owners it’s always prudent to scour our opponents’ rosters and hunt for any potential buy-low opportunities that could enhance our future lineups. To varying degrees, the trio of Jacksonville’s Justin Blackmon, San Diego’s Danario Alexander and Philly’s Jeremy Maclin might be able to do just that. Let’s explore the case for each player.
Blackmon is easily the most talented player of the three, but also clearly the most troubled. There’s nothing wrong with him physically, but he unfortunately appears to lack the ability to function as a responsible adult. His upside as a bona fide WR1 is truly tantalizing, but the downside of his indefinite suspension for a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy looms even larger. I think you need to hedge your bets here – for the price of a future second round pick he’s worth the gamble, but I wouldn’t be comfortable investing any more than that. There are no guarantees he’ll ever be able to overcome his demons.
Maclin is an interesting case, as I’ve always felt he was a bit overvalued by the fantasy community. He flashed skills at times and was always able to string together a few games of WR1-level production, but to date he still hasn’t been able to eclipse 70 receptions or 964 yards in a single season – the output just never caught up to the hype. In all likelihood he’ll find himself playing on a one-year “prove it” deal next season, but it remains to be seen if he’ll return to the City of Brotherly Love. Based purely on upside I’d risk a late second round or early third round pick to acquire his services, but keep your expectations tempered.
When it comes to Alexander, I unfortunately think it’s time to move on. When healthy he’s been great, and even functioned as a true WR1 down the 2012 stretch as Philip Rivers’ favorite target. Lamentably, in terms of staying healthy he makes Darren McFadden look like Brett Favre. With yet another torn ACL, it’s fair to wonder how much explosion Alexander will return with, if he returns at all. I don’t view him as a viable trade target.
4. With great players like Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and Doug Martin getting hurt and not contributing, what happens to their dynasty value? I’m interested in making them into trade targets for a younger team, but don’t know what would be a fair offer. – Jim in CO
I have a motto that I’ve said time and time again in this space, and it applies here as well – dynasty is a perennial venture. With that said, it’s folly to believe the yearly aspect of this great format is dwarfed to the point of irrelevance. The goal is to win, and guy on IR just can’t help you do that right now!
Therefore it’s reasonable to assert that these players absolutely have to have lost some tangible amount of value. Determining how much, however, is going to depend primarily upon the state of the other owner’s team. A team’s level of contention will go a long way towards influencing the relative value of an injured player, as dictated by the owner’s current designs.
For example, a rebuilding squad should have absolutely no impetus to trade a player like Julio Jones, Doug Martin or Randall Cobb. They’re not planning on competing this year, so what does it matter that their young stud players are on the shelf? In that case you’re not likely to receive any sort of discount, assuming you can get a trade to materialize at all.
Conversely, if a contending team lost some of their luster due to injury, they might be more willing to trade. In that case I think it’s reasonable to offer a healthy player who’s a tier below – think something along the lines of Jones for Jordy Nelson, Martin for Matt Forte or Cobb for Pierre Garcon. Some pieces or picks might need to be added to each side, but that’s likely going to be the general framework of the deal. The contender will still get their shot at the title, and you’ll be sitting pretty for 2014 and beyond.
Ultimately though these types of trades are going to occur on a case-by-case basis. Not every contender will be a seller, and not every rebuilding squad wants to be a buyer. Regardless, given the talent levels of the trio you mentioned, as well as any other elite player who might go down, it’s always worth it to do your due diligence.
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