Instant Analysis: Justin Blackmon

Ken Kelly Posted On November 1, 2013

Just when things started looking better for wide receiver Justin Blackmon of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the rug has been pulled out from under dynasty owners as he was suspended indefinitely for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy for the second time. This is obviously a huge blow to the hopes and dreams of many dynasty owners out there as Blackmon returned from his previous four game suspension to prove to be a difference maker, even on a team with a huge void at quarterback. After all, even garbage time points count in fantasy football and Blackmon was putting up his share for the putrid Jags. This event has sent shockwaves throughout fantasy land and we evaluate the players involved from our unique dynasty perspective.

Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

Ugh.

Blackmon had put up a 29/415/1 line through four games this season and extrapolated out to a full season, we were looking at a player capable of posting 116 catches, 1,660 yards and four scores on a team without a decent quarterback. In short, that’s impressive. However, all those numbers mean nothing now as owners now just have to hope Blackmon can get himself into a rehab facility and solve whatever personal problems he may have. It’s a shame from a fantasy football perspective, but even tougher to see from a humanistic one. Let’s all hope he just gets himself right sooner or later.

There’s one thing dynasty owners can’t do and that’s panic. It would be easy to throw in the towel on Blackmon and trade him away for a mid-tier rookie pick or developmental prospect, but that’s the wrong thing to do at the moment. After all, we don’t even have all the information about the violation as of yet. Playing in dynasty leagues requires you to have a strong stomach and selling low on any player rarely comes back to reward an owner. Face it, nobody is going to give you anything halfway decent for a player with the baggage Blackmon has and it’s more than likely going to be much more lucrative for you to just put him on your bench and hope for the best.

If I was in a startup league, I’d be looking at drafting Blackmon somewhere after the top 30 or 40 receivers are off the board – his talent is enough to merit taking that type of a gamble. However, if you have him as your WR1 or WR2 without other decent options, you’re in some sudden and serious trouble.

Cecil Shorts, WR JAX

Shorts is one of the most underrated players in fantasy right now. While he may not be the flashiest player out there and he does have some injury concerns with multiple concussions, the targets in Jacksonville have to be redistributed again and Blackmon had a whopping 48 targets in just four games this year. Look for Shorts to pick up a majority of those targets and play himself into a nice WR2 role in the short term. In fact, it’s possible the Jags use him as their WR1 not just this year, but next as well. They have a lot of needs and you know their first draft pick is going to be a quarterback come April. They simply don’t have the luxury to be looking at someone like Sammy Watkins to replace Blackmon and will look to fill that void with Shorts or through free agency after the season.

Mike Brown, WR JAX

We’ve been on Brown for a while and he’ll now slide right into a nice role with the Jags. He’s posted 12 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown over his past three games. More importantly, he’s had a robust 20 targets over that time span. Look for Brown’s role to grow. Losing Blackmon in a dynasty league is tough to see, but any time a player goes down, another gets an opportunity – look for Brown to take advantage. If he’s available in your league (which he’s not if anyone in it reads our Premium Content), he’s an immediate must add.

Ace Sanders, WR JAX

Sanders had his job taken away from him by the emerging Brown, but he should get right back in the mix. It’s hard to expect too much from two Jacksonville receivers, no less three. However, there’s still some sleeper appeal here. Personally, I’d stay away from Stephen Burton, Stephen Williams, Taylor Price or any of the other Jacksonville receivers, though. It’s possible Marcedes Lewis sees more targets as a result of Blackmon’s suspension, but it’s more likely he’s asked to attempt to avoid getting Chad Henne or Blaine Gabbert decapitated.

Chad Henne, QB JAX

Can it get any worse? Probably not.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB LOU

It’s a stretch to connect the dots this far, but Bridgewater could have fared a lot better knowing Blackmon was going to be there for him. At this point, the race is on between Tampa and Jacksonville for the rights to the top pick, be it Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota or another elite quarterback prospect. Any of them would have been put in a position for a greater chance of success with Blackmon in the fold, so let’s hope he’s reinstated by that point in time.

As always, stay tuned to DLF for all the instant dynasty fantasy football analysis you need to be successful in your leagues.

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Ken Kelly

Co-Founder at DynastyLeagueFootball

Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK