Herding Stats: Week Nine

There’s a saying, “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Alex Smith

Alex Smith has been the image of consistency over the past couple of years after a rocky start to his career. Smith is now one of the most accurate passers in the league and this week he is going against a team in the Bills who are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bills are giving up the fourth most passing yards in the NFL and the most passing touchdowns in the league. Smith meanwhile has given up the second fewest interceptions out of the top 25 quarterbacks this season. Despite not being a household name, he actually has more passing yards per game then some heavyweights such as Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. This bodes well for Smith as the Bills are giving up nearly 40 yards more per game (263 yards) than his current passing yards per game average of 224. Buffalo is quite literally leaking points to opposing quarterbacks with an average of 2.5 touchdowns per game being surrendered through the air. If Smith is going to have success we’ll likely know before halftime as Kansas City scores 13.5 points on average in the first half, the eighth most in the NFL while Buffalo surrenders 14.6 on average in the first half, the seventh most in the NFL. Smith has one of the best match-ups for quarterbacks this week and if he can maintain the poise he’s shown then he should be primed for one of the better games he’ll have this season.

Running Back Focus:  Chris Johnson

Here’s a name that most people groan over when he’s mentioned as a potential buy low candidate, and the sentiment is justified. Johnson has disappointed fantasy owners on numerous occasions over the past few years. That being said Johnson is coming into a stretch of games that look absolutely tasty over the news few weeks, starting with the Rams. St. Louis is giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, a statistics that immediately jumps out at any owner who has a player who once gained over 2,000 rushing yards in a single season. The Rams are giving up an average of 116 rushing yards per game , the tenth most in the NFL. Meanwhile they are also being rushed on the fourth most in the NFL by opposing running backs with 204 attempts thus far this season or 25.5 attempts per game. This also helps explain why the Rams have given up the fourth most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs in the NFL with seven, or just under one rushing touchdown per game. In his one career game against the Rams Johnson had a very nice game with 28 rushing attempts for 117 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He also was able to accumulate another three receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown so he has seen success in the past. Johnson looks to be entering the sweet spot of his schedule and could start off with a bang against St. Louis.

Wide Receiver Focus:  Chargers WRs

The Chargers wide receivers have been an interesting group of characters this season. As a group, the Chargers wide receivers have a couple of multiple touchdown games but no one has really been able to establish themselves as the man in San Diego. They will face a Washington team who gives up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL. San Diego should have plenty of chances to rack up the points as Washington is allowing nearly two-thirds of all passes to be completed (65.8%), the eighth highest completion rate in the NFL while San Diego completes the fourth most passes per game with 26.3 completions per game. This plays a big part of why they give up the fifth most passing yards per game in the NFL with 274 yards given up on average per game. San Diego however is gaining the sixth most passing yards per game in the NFL with 294 yards per game. Furthermore, if San Diego is looking for another multiple passing touchdown game then Washington is definitely the team to do it against as they are giving up the fourth most passing touchdowns per game with 2.1, the exact number that San Diego scores through the air per game!

Tight End Focus:  Martellus Bennett

Martellus Bennett hasn’t really had the impact that several fantasy owners thought he would this season. Bennett has only managed 4.5 receptions and roughly 50 yards on average per game which is not what most Bennett owners were hoping for when they were taking him as one of the top tight ends in fantasy drafts. However, this might just be the week Bennett is able to reward his believers in a prime match-up against Green Bay. The Packers are giving up the third most fantasy points to tight ends in the league and the Bears just so happen to be starting a quarterback that isn’t extremely comfortable as a starting quarterback just yet. The Packers are giving up over six receptions and around 70 yards per game to opposing tight ends, well above Bennett’s typical game. One thing to keep an eye on is how Bennett is used in the red zone. Bennett has the second most receiving touchdowns on the Bears and the fifth most receiving touchdowns among NFL tight ends with four. He looks to be a handful for the Packers this week, just the kind of match-up Bennett owners have been waiting for all season.

Defensive Team Focus:  Saints

New Orleans has seen something of a defensive revival under Rob Ryan. The Saints are now able to win games on both sides of the ball as opposed to just trying to score the last touchdown of the game and eke out a win. The Saints are the fifth best team at sacking the quarterback with 24 sacks through seven games, or 3.4 sacks per game. New Orleans has also managed to rank as the fifth best team in the NFL when intercepting the ball this season with nine interceptions so far this season or 1.3 interceptions per game. Most importantly the Saints have given up the third fewest points in the NFL so far. Their opponents this week, the Jets, are the sixth lowest scoring team in the NFL this season, scoring just under 18 points on average per game. They are also surrendering the fifth most sacks per game with 3.6 sacks coming per game. Finally, the Jets are throwing on average 1.6 interceptions per game making them the third most intercepted team in the NFL. When taken as a whole the Saints should have a nice game against the Jets in which to pad their team defensive statistics.