Dynasty Mythbusters: Week Eight
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. The hype train often gets rolling much too quickly one way or the other on players.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
Last week, our own Chad Scott made what might have been the fantasy equivalent of Babe Ruth stepping up to the plate and calling his homerun shot over the center field fence in the 1932 World Series. He used his weekly article to recommend that you take a gamble with the Bengals’ Marvin Jones this past week. Much to the amusement of some, Chad predicted a 4 reception, 70 yard game with a touchdown for the young receiver. Little did we know when Chad wrote his predictions he would only be about half way there for receptions and yards while being only a fourth of the way to the touchdown total that Jones racked up in week eight.
Chad told you to pick up Marvin Jones last week. I’m going to do my best to tell you if you should be hanging on to him and working him into your long term plans or if you should be selling him while his value is sky high. Here’s to hoping I’m as accurate as Chad was!
Marvin Jones, WR CIN
Week Eight Statline: 8 receptions on 8 targets for 122 yards and four touchdowns.
If it wasn’t for Calvin Johnson’s nearly record breaking game (he was second all-time by just a few yards), we would be hearing a whole lot more about Marvin Jones this week. His four touchdowns in one game was only one behind the NFL record of five touchdowns which is jointly held by Kellen Winslow Sr, Jerry Rice, and Bob Shaw. It is the most we have seen since November of 2007 when Randy Moss and Terrell Owens both caught four touchdowns in the same week. The question is which of this group is he most like? Does he belong in the group with hall of famers Winslow and Rice and future hall of famers Moss and Owens? Or is his game a fluke like that of Bob Shaw who had a five touchdown game in 1950, a four touchdown game in 1949 and 11 touchdowns for the entire rest of his career?
The Good: The former California Golden Bear was a fifth round pick of the Bengals in 2012 and has been fighting for a starting role ever since. Standing in at 6’2” and around 200 pounds, he has good but not great size. His long arms give him a very large catch radius while his strong hands allow him to haul in just about any pass that gets into that radius. He also possesses sub 4.5 speed to go with those hands and a decent leaping ability. In other words, he has the physical tools.
He has also shown a connection with his quarterback, Andy Dalton. In week 8, not only did he lead the team in targets but he had double the targets of anyone not named AJ Green. His targets have increased each of the last four weeks and he has caught over 75% of those targets, which goes back to his catch radius and hands.
The Bad: The biggest elephant in the room with Jones is his role on the team. He has routinely been the third or fourth receiver on the team since he was drafted (he is currently listed as third). He really hasn’t been seeing the field as much as you would expect from the statistics he has produced recently. Here is a quick table that outlines his snap count when compared to the number two receiver on the depth chart, Mohamed Sanu:
|
Player |
Week 6 |
Week 7 |
Week 8 |
|
Sanu |
58 snaps (67%) |
52 snaps (91%) |
30 snaps (53%) |
|
Jones |
26 snaps (30%) |
24 snaps (42%) |
19 snaps (33%) |
As you can see, the playing time Jones has received really hasn’t seen much of an uptick even though Sanu has struggled and Jones has been productive. I expect this to change given the recent explosion, but the fact that it has taken this long is a bit of a concern. Why wasn’t Jones playing the majority of snaps opposite Green already? Andrew Hawkins’ impending return further muddies the water when trying to figure out his role going forward.
The other big concern with Jones is he is rather lean. For a 6’2” receiver, he doesn’t have much bulk and sometimes struggles with more physical defenders. He was able to embarrass rookie Dee Millner on Sunday, but veteran cornerbacks have been able to push him around. Combine the lean body with less than perfect route running and he sometimes has a hard time getting open, but he has shown an ability to box out defenders and bring in contested passes.
The Ugly Truth: It is hard to ignore anyone that puts up four touchdowns in a single game. However, if I had to put him into one of the groups mentioned towards that start I think he is more Bob Shaw than Jerry Rice. Of course the truth is that he’s somewhere in the middle.
Marvin Jones is an above average, but not great NFL talent. He has a nice skill set and this performance should be enough to get him at least equal snaps if not more snaps than the less effective Sanu. This will without a doubt be the best game of his season and most likely of his career, so chasing his box score and hoping that he produces at a WR1 level the next few weeks is going to be an exercise in futility.
The passing game will continue to run through AJ Green with a decent number of targets going to the running backs and the tight ends. That really doesn’t leave a lot of consistent targets for the number two wide receiver. In addition to that, Andy Dalton has had three games in a row of over 300 yards passing and at least three touchdowns. He only has two other games in his career that were at that level. Dalton is a nice quarterback, but he isn’t Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. He isn’t going to be able to put up those kinds of numbers week in and week out. When the stats drop, the most impacted player is going to be Jones because you know Green will always get his and the others get the check downs.
With all of that said, Jones is still obviously worth a pick-up if he is somehow still out on your waiver wire. He has shown over the last few weeks that he belongs on the field opposite Green and that he has the ability to make defenses pay if they put too much of a focus on the All-Pro. He’ll likely see single coverage on almost every snap and should be able to produce WR3 fantasy numbers most weeks with stat lines around four receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown from time to time. He’ll have the occasional blow up week when defenses decide to completely take Green out of the picture as well as the dud from time to time when Dalton has a 200 yard, no touchdown game but that inconsistency is common with fantasy WR3s.
Moving forward, I would put him a notch below fellow youngsters Terrance Williams and Michael Floyd. You don’t get points for past production, so keep that in mind if he is someone that you are targeting. If you have him already, you might want to explore the trade market. If someone is willing to overpay due to the hype surrounding him, then feel free to take advantage of them. In a lot of leagues, you might be able to get one of the guys I mentioned plus a bit. If you can, take it in a heartbeat. If he’s on the waiver wire, I would feel comfortable spending a pretty significant portion of my remaining budget on him because it is already week nine. The chance someone else worthwhile comes along in the next few weeks is getting pretty slim.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
