Bye Week Scouting Report: Baltimore, Chicago, San Diego, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Houston

For the first time this season, six teams are off.  Let’s get started.

Baltimore Ravens

The Super Bowl champs are limping into their bye week with a record of 3-4.  The Ravens chances of winning back-to-back titles are fading quickly and the chances any player on their roster makes a significant contribution to a fantasy championship this year looks bleaker by the week.

Coming into the season, the expectation by most fantasy owners was that Ray Rice would continue to do what he’s done over the past three seasons, contributing around 1,500 yards from scrimmage and more than 10 touchdowns.  He’s disappointed to this point however, averaging only 2.8 yards per carry while running for 242 yards and three touchdowns.

While the expectations certainly weren’t as high for the Ravens passing attack, it was widely assumed that Torrey Smith would become a legitimate number one receiver for Joe Flacco and his other targets would develop as the season progressed.  For the most part, that hasn’t happened.

Smith has caught 31 passes on 57 targets and leads the league with 829 yards through seven games, but he’s only caught one touchdown on the year and been held to only four total catches over the last two weeks.  Fellow receiver Marlon Brown has 21 catches for 243 yards and three touchdowns, but he hasn’t caught more than four passes in a single game and hasn’t reached 75 yards receiving, either.

Coming out of the bye, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect much to change in Baltimore.  Four of their next five games are against top-ten defenses, including the Browns, Bengals, Jets and Steelers, who just held the Ravens to 297 total yards and one touchdown in week seven.

The good news going forward is that the Ravens have one of the best fantasy playoff schedules in the league, playing the Vikings (27^th in the league in total defense), Lions (31^st) and Patriots (18^th) in weeks fourteen through sixteen.

The schedule makes Rice an interesting trade target for fantasy teams that are poised to make a playoff run, but are in need of running back help.  The Ravens will most likely struggle to establish the run over the next two games, but trying to acquire him at a low price right before they take on the Bears in week eleven may be the perfect time to capitalize on a favorable schedule.

Over the past two weeks, defenses have shown that Smith can be taken out of the Ravens game plan.  With the lack of a quality number two target for Flacco, fantasy owners should expect defenses to follow that blue print as the season progresses.

Fantasy owners in need of depth at other positions could consider Flacco, Bernard Pierce, Brown or tight end Dallas Clark as low cost options as well.  Clark has been serviceable since signing with Baltimore, catching 23 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns.  He’s never going to be the same guy that caught 100 passes for the Colts a few years ago, but he’s worth a roster spot as a TE2.

Clark, Jacoby Jones and Dennis Pitta are all free agents after the season.  Fantasy owners that have a need for tight end depth should explore making a deal for Pitta, who’s eligible to be back with the Ravens late this year.  He’s unlikely to make much of a fantasy impact this season, but could reemerge as a TE1 as early as 2014.

Chicago Bears

When Jay Cutler was injured in week seven, backup quarterback Josh McCown was forced to fill in and early reports indicate that may be the case for at least a month.  Some may think that the loss of Cutler may be devastating to the fantasy fate of Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, but if week seven is any indication, that may not be true.  McCown completed 14 of 20 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 33 yards on four carries in the loss to the Redskins.

Forte has been brilliant to this point in the season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry while running for 533 yards and six touchdowns.  He’s also added 35 catches for 265 yards on 40 targets.  Most importantly, he’s been a true every-down-back through seven games, playing 393 of the 419 snaps (93.7%) so far this year.

Marshall has been equally effective.  He has 46 receptions for 540 yards and five touchdowns on 65 targets and has been one of the most consistent fantasy receivers to this point in the season, scoring at least 10 fantasy points in every game so far this season in PPR leagues.  All of this while sharing targets with Jeffery.

Jeffery’s been targeted 55 times and made 33 catches for 561 yards and two touchdowns.  Much of his damage was done in the Bears’ week five loss to the Saints where he caught ten passes for 218 yards and a touchdown but he’s had three 100 yard games in the last four weeks and averaged nine targets per game over that time.

As the season goes on, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a big change from the Bears’ playmakers.

Although defenses will focus on stopping the run, Forte doesn’t have any competition for carries from Michael Bush and will continue to be featured in the Bears’ offense.  In fact, with the loss of Cutler, Chicago may feed him more than before the injury.  If the Bears continue to get quality quarterback play, he has a legitimate chance to finish the season as a top-three fantasy running back.

Many think Marshall and Jeffery stand to lose the most fantasy value with the injury to Cutler, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect much of a drop off.  Marshall will continue to be a WR1 and Jeffery, a low end WR2, even with the change at quarterback.

Dynasty owners should remember that in the event that McCown struggles and Jeffery’s numbers slip, an opportunity could present itself to try to trade for the second year receiver.  It may become the last chance you have to get him, he has WR1 upside.

Martellus Bennett has also had a productive season to this point.  He’s caught at least five passes or a touchdown in six of the seven games this year.  Depending on his injury, he’s a low end TE1 going forward.

Many fantasy owners may look to McCown as a short term solution to injuries to the quarterback position.  Although he has a 38:44 career touchdown to interception ratio, he has good mobility and an above average receiving corps.  He fits well in Marc Trestman’s quick passing system and the Bears play the Packers and Lions immediately after the bye, two teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in pass defense.  He should be a top-18 quarterback option over the next few weeks.  Those that are in need of a stopgap could do worse.

Fantasy owners should also take note of the struggles the Bears’ defense has had over the last two weeks.  They’ve been ravaged by injury and because of that, haven’t been able to stop the run.  They’ve given up 332 yards rushing on 69 carries (4.8 YPC) and five touchdowns over the last two games.  Start your running backs against Chicago.

Cutler and kicker Robbie Gould are scheduled to be free agents after the season.  Gould is one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history, even while kicking in the windy city.  If he were to sign with a team that has a good offense and plays their home games in better weather conditions, he could become one of fantasy’s best kickers.

San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers has been one of the shocks so far in the fantasy season.  In fact, many of the Chargers have been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners.

Rivers has looked spectacular.  Head coach Mike McCoy has him playing as well as he has in his career.  He’s gotten the ball out quickly, made good decisions and been incredibly accurate.  He’s completed 184 of 289 passes for 2,132 yards, 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions, numbers that are especially impressive considering he’s doing it without a bon-a-fide outside receiver.

Season ending injuries to Malcom Floyd and Danario Alexander early in the year put serious doubt on Rivers’ chances of putting up big numbers in 2013, but Vincent Brown, Keenan Allen and even Eddie Royal have stepped up fill the void.

All three receivers have at least 30, but no more than 36 targets and at least 22 but no more than 26 receptions on the season.  Allen has been the most impressive, catching 26 passes for 399 yards and two touchdowns on 34 targets.

Antonio Gates has been a big help in the resurgence of Rivers.  He’s been targeted 53 times, catching 42 passes for 497 yards and two touchdowns thus far in the season and although he’s been held in check the past two weeks, he’s been targeted at least six times in every game since week two.

The Chargers’ running backs have also become something fantasy owners have come to depend on this season.  Ryan Mathews leads the team in rushing with 446 yards on 110 carries (4.1 YPC).  He’s also scored two touchdowns on the season, one rushing and one receiving and is coming off back-to-back 100 yard games for the Chargers.

While Mathews has been the most used running back in San Diego, Danny Woodhead has been the most productive.  Woodhead’s accounted for 486 yards from scrimmage on 46 carries and 40 catches and scored four total touchdowns.

While Rivers has been excellent, it’s hard to believe he will continue completing passes at this rate.  His 73.9 completion percentage is nearly eight points better than his career mark of 66% in 2010, but even if his completion percentage dips, there’s no reason to think his decision making will change.  It’s possible he sets career bests in passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions.  Currently, he’s a top eight fantasy quarterback in all leagues and should finish the season that way.

Brown and Royal are likely to be up and down as the season progresses, but Allen has the chance to be something special, now and in years to come.  The rookie from California has been impressive, averaging 15.3 yards per reception and becoming Rivers’ go-to-guy.  If there is a trade target on the Chargers’ roster, it’s Allen, although it may cost too much to acquire him at this point.

Gates will likely finish the season as a low end TE1.  He’s resurfaced as a useful tight end this season, but is 33 years old.  Dynasty owners should look at this as the last opportunity to get any value out of an aging player.  If you have another option, or are out of contention this season, you should consider trading him as long as you’re getting proper value for him.  His backup, Ladarius Green, is an excellent long-term prospect for those looking for a developmental tight end.

Although Mathews has burned nearly every fantasy owner out there, many of us are slowly starting to come back to him.  He’s averaged 15 carries per game this season and is a solid flex play going forward.

Many think Woodhead is only valuable in PPR leagues but he actually ranks as a top 20 running back in both PPR and standard leagues thus far in 2013.  He’s being used perfectly in McCoy’s quick passing offense.  Expect him to finish the season as a high end RB2 in PPR leagues and low end RB2 in standard leagues.  Many of his owners are slow to realize his value, so he makes for an excellent trade target during the bye week.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were another team to be struck by the injury bug in week seven.  Reggie Wayne tore his ACL while trying to catch an errant pass from Andrew Luck in the Colts’ win over the Broncos on Sunday night.  While the injury certainly isn’t good news for the Colts, it makes for a golden opportunity for other players.

T.Y. Hilton steps into the number one receiver role in the absence of Wayne.  He’s been inconsistent, but explosive, catching 27 passes for 412 yards and two touchdowns on 52 targets this year.

Fellow wide out Darrius Heyward-Bey also stands to get an uptick in targets after the loss of Wayne.  He’s caught 18 passes on 33 targets for 190 yards and one touchdown, but he’s dropped four passes, most of which were for big plays.

Since the injury to Ahmad Bradshaw and the trade for Trent Richardson, the running game in Indianapolis has been ugly.  Richardson’s averaged just over three yards per carry since coming over from the Browns before week three and caught only two passes for 19 yards for the Colts.  Even more peculiarly, over the same stretch Donald Brown has rushed for 165 yards on 26 carries (6.3 YPC) and a touchdown while catching nine passes for 75 yards.

When the Colts come out of the bye, they’ll face six teams that are ranked in the top 10 in total defense in their next eight games.  So far in 2013, they’ve only faced two top 10 defenses.  That information may make fantasy owners leery of starting their Colts going forward.

Luck’s been inconsistent so far in 2013.  While he hasn’t made many mistakes, only throwing three interceptions, he’s had two games without a touchdown pass and has thrown for more than 260 yards only once.  With the murderer’s row of passing defenses on the schedule including Houston (best in the league) twice, Tennessee twice and Kansas City in week 16, fantasy owners should be concerned about Luck’s prospects down the stretch.  Dynasty owners should continue to remember that their franchise is in good hands if Luck is at the helm however.  He has the upside to be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks for years to come.

Hilton also has a bright future and has the potential to be a high end WR2 in fantasy leagues.  That potential could be realized as early as the year with him likely to see an increase in his targets after the injury to Wayne.

Heyward-Bey and LaVon Brazill are nothing more than WR4’s with WR3 upside at this point.

Tight end Coby Fleener has been a TE2, even without Dwayne Allen to compete for snaps.  Luck hasn’t looked for him with any consistency and there’s no reason to believe that will change.

The running game is a mystery to most fantasy owners.  Richardson has been below average and many have attributed it to learning a new playbook and getting used to new surroundings.  I’m not buying it!  He didn’t sniff four yards per carry with the Browns and never displayed the burst that a top NFL draft pick should.  None of that has changed with the Colts.  He’s only had one 15 yard run since the trade.  If anybody was willing to give low end RB1 value for him, I’d trade him in a heartbeat.

Brown’s 6.3 yards per carry is nothing more than a mirage.  His carries have come in passing situations and he’s taken advantage, but he has very little fantasy value unless Richardson goes down with an injury.

Bradshaw and Brown are both free agents after the season.  Bradshaw turns 28 in March, but could still have fantasy value depending on where he ends up next year.  He’s worth a roster spot in deep leagues or leagues with an injured reserve.  Heyward-Bey is also scheduled to become a free agent.  If he doesn’t capitalize on this opportunity with Wayne out, he’s likely to be out of chances to be an NFL contributor.  Kicker Adam Vinatieri will also be free to sign anywhere this offseason.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans offense has been full of inconsistencies, and no Titans player has been more unpredictable than Chris Johnson.  CJ2K hasn’t looked like the same tailback that burst through holes and was a threat to score from anywhere on the field in years past.  He’s averaged only 3.2 yards per rush and has yet to find the end zone on 115 carries so far this year, although has does have two receiving scores.

Quarterback Jake Locker, who returned from a hip injury last week against San Francisco, has played well.  He’s completed 94 of 152 passes for 1,047 yards and eight touchdowns, but most impressively, he’s only thrown one interception.

The most consistent of Locker’s receivers has been second year wide out Kendall Wright, who’s caught 40 passes for 433 yards and a touchdown.  Those numbers don’t jump off the page but he’s had at least 55 yards receiving and a minimum of 6 targets and 5 receptions each week for the last six weeks.

Locker rushed back to play in week seven, but clearly wasn’t completely healthy.  Although his numbers looked good, he wasn’t accurate and very little mobility in the pocket.  Fantasy owners that are depending on any Tennessee pass catchers should hope that the week off gives him time to get back to 100%.

When Locker was sidelined in week five, Nate Washington was coming off consecutive 100-yard games where he was targeted a total of 18 times.  With backup Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for the next two games, he caught only four passes for 45 yards.

As long as Locker stays healthy, Washington can be a factor for fantasy owners.  His production depends greatly on the deep passing game so his fantasy totals will go up and down throughout the year which will limit his upside.  At this point, he’s no more than a WR4 but that could change if Locker gets healthy and continues to look for him downfield.

Wright is developing into a very nice possession receiver.  He works primarily out of the slot, running 166 of his 224 (74%) from that position, and he primarily runs underneath and intermediate routes.  His fantasy numbers depend greatly on volume and he is much more valuable in PPR than standard leagues.  He’s currently on pace to catch around 90 passes for just short of 1,000 yards.  While that just barely qualifies him to be a WR3 in PPR leagues this season, he has the upside of becoming a WR2 in the future, once he learns how to make plays in the red zone.

The other pass catchers in Tennessee probably won’t make an impact on fantasy teams this year, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore them.

Kenny Britt still has loads of talent.  When he wants to play, he can be a solid WR2, but that’s not going to happen with the Titans.  If he’s not traded, he’ll get a fresh start somewhere next year and could reach his potential in the right system.

Rookie receiver Justin Hunter is another interesting name.  He’s averaging less than ten snaps per game right now, but his role will increase as the season progresses and has the potential to become a valuable fantasy asset in the future.  He’s an excellent trade target for those looking for a developmental receiver.

Tight end Delanie Walker was a popular sleeper pick over the offseason but has been nothing more than a TE3 to this point, which is unlikely to change going forward.

Many of Johnson’s fantasy owners are looking for an opportunity to sell the former 2,000 yard back and that chance might be just around the corner.  The Titans play the Rams, Jaguars and Colts in weeks nine through eleven, all of which rank among the bottom six in the league in rushing yards allowed and give up more than 4.2 yards per carry.  If Johnson puts up quality numbers over the next few weeks, it might be the last time he has any trade value.  If he fails to take advantage of the weak schedule, expect Shonn Greene and Jackie Battle to get more carries and Johnson’s fantasy value to slip even further.

Houston Texans

The Texans had big expectations coming into the season and fantasy owners had equally high expectations of the Texans offense.  Both have been disappointing.

Matt Schaub was dreadful before getting hurt in week six against the Rams.  He threw nine interceptions in five-and-a-half games and was held without a touchdown pass in three of them (although one was the game he was hurt in.)

Andre Johnson has also been fighting through injuries but you wouldn’t know it looking at his numbers.  He leads the league in receptions with 48 and is eighth in the league in receiving yards with 584.  Unfortunately for his fantasy owners however, he’s last in the league in touchdown receptions with zero.

Part of the reason Johnson’s been open so much is because opposing defenses have been forced to pay attention to the Texans number two receiver for the first time in years.  Rookie DeAndre Hopkins has had a nice, although uneven start to his career.  He’s caught 28 passes for 416 yards and two touchdowns while playing 472 of the Texans 532 snaps (88.7%).

After averaging only 4.0 yards per carry last year, Arian Foster was considered by many as a possible bust in 2013.  He’s answered his critics by upping that average to 4.5 this season and in the three weeks before Sunday’s game against the Chiefs, he averaged 113 yards per game on the ground and four catches for 48 yards through the air.  Then against Kansas City, he left the game in the first quarter with a hamstring injury.

Foster’s backup, Ben Tate, has been equally effective, running for 318 yards on 66 carries (4.8 YPC) and a touchdown.  He’s also contributed 16 receptions for 56 yards.  Like Foster, he suffered an injury against the Chiefs, fracturing his ribs.

How much fantasy owners can depend on any of these players going forward may depend solely on the quarterback in Houston.  The Texans are 2-5 and unlikely to make a run at the playoffs, so it would be surprising if they didn’t give Case Keenum another start.  Keenum completed 15 of 25 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs.  He was undrafted out of Houston, but holds the NCAA records for most completions, passing yards and touchdowns.  He’s worth a roster spot in deep dynasty leagues.

If Schaub gets his job back, he has very little fantasy upside.  If I could trade him for a bye week fill-in, I’d do it.

The value of Foster and Tate for the rest of the season depends mostly on their health.  Head coach Gary Kubiak has proven he’ll give Foster a majority of the carries as long as he’s healthy and Foster’s only 27 years old and still has the burst he’s displayed over the past three seasons.  There’s no reason to worry about his dynasty value at this point.

Tate will be a free agent at the end of the season and is likely to find a starting job somewhere.  Dynasty owners who are looking to find a starting running back for next year should look into acquiring Tate now, before the price gets too high.

Even though Johnson’s 32, he’s still a stud.  Because of his age, he’ll be traded in many dynasty leagues this year.  Fantasy teams looking for a solid receiver to contend for a championship will trade for him, and teams that are out of it this year will deal him for young talent.  He’ll continue to be a WR2 through the end of 2014.

Coming into the season, I had Hopkins as my number one rookie prospect and don’t regret it one bit.  He’s proven to be a WR4 already, but has flashed WR1 upside.  He’s an excellent trade target for any dynasty team.

After the injury to Owen Daniels, many expected Garrett Graham to immediately fill his shoes and get the 7.8 targets per game Daniels was getting.  Graham’s been targeted 12 times in the two games since Daniels was injured, but only caught five passes for 63 yards and no scores.  He’ll have good games, but won’t come near the low end TE1 value and consistency Daniels was giving his fantasy owners.

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Dan Meylor

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Dan is a jack of all trades but master of none and specializes in salary cap and contract leagues.He has far too many hobbies (including writing the article you just read), is a die-hard Packers fan and can't wait to introduce his young sons to fantasy football.

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