Dynasty Stock Market: Destination Players – Part Two
In last week’s edition of the Dynasty Stock Market, I coined a term referring to some of the players that individual dynasty owners most covet- Destination Players. To recap last week’s article, a destination player is one that once he lands on your team, he is unlikely to be traded away. This is due to a couple of reasons, as I mentioned last week. That player could be one of the elite players in the game or he could simply be a personal favorite whom you value over most other owners in your league.
This week, I’ll expand the idea of destination players by discussing how to identify which players make up your list, as well as some thoughts on acquiring these highly valued players.
We all want to have a dynasty team filled with the top players in the game. After all, a team consisting of Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Randall Cobb and Jimmy Graham would never lose, right? Wrong! I have a team with those exact players and thanks to some untimely injuries, I suffered my first loss last week. The good news is that even though that team is now without both Jones and Cobb for the remainder of the fantasy season, I did not have to panic. The reason is that along the way, I have been targeting and acquiring players I considered destination players. Therefore, I have the depth to sustain what would typically be considered devastating injuries.
Before I discuss how to create your own list of destination players, here are a couple of things to remember. First, a player’s status as a destination player is fluid. Just because you tab a player as a destination player does not mean he is on your team for the remainder of his career. Many things can alter your perception of that player, changing his status. Poor play or off the field issues can turn a player from must own to must sell quickly, as it recently did for me with Titans’ wide receiver Kenny Britt. Britt was once a player I valued as a top ten wideout. While I still love his talent, his consistent run ins with the law combined with his poor play has bounced him from my list of destination players. After all, no dynasty owner is always right about every player, as much as we hate to admit it. You have to know when to reevaluate the player and the situation, which can often affect that player’s status on your dynasty team.
Another factor that can affect a player’s status as a destination player if the current status of your specific dynasty team. If you are rebuilding, your list of destination players might be filled with rookies and second year players that you have high hopes in. On the other hand, with a championship contending team, players like Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster likely make an appearance on your list.
Identifying Destination Players:
Because of this idea, the first step in identifying your list of destination players is to thoroughly assess the standing of your dynasty team. Multiple articles could be, and have been written on the best ways to go through this process, but the key is to be honest with yourself. Entering this season, as I was analyzing each of my dynasty teams and their potential outlooks, there was one team I was struggling to get a feel for. This team has always been a contender, but as I looked at my roster, and the rosters of the other teams in the league, I saw a lack of depth and a lack of youth. Considering those are two aspects I find key in the success of my dynasty teams, I began to grow worried about the quality of my team and the chances for success this season. I shared this confusion with a friend, explaining that I “couldn’t decide if I was a contender.” His response was a wise one. “If you can’t decide of you’re a contender, you’re not a contender.” Truer words have never been spoken and this led me to reevaluate my list of destination players for this specific team and league.
To being the evaluation process of your standing in the league, take a deep look at your own roster. Consider the starting requirements and scoring rules of your league, along with any other specific rules that might help determine if your team is a contender or not. These would include contracts, developmental players etc. Once you have identified your team as either a contender or a builder, you can begin creating your list of destination players.
The actual process should begin with you consulting your dynasty rankings, or a list of trusted rankings you commonly find yourself using. It’s not quite as simple as pegging the top five or ten players at each position as destination players. Instead, it requires you to assess each player and consider the value that you place on that player. The most likely scenario though is that the top two or three quarterbacks and tight ends will fall on your list, as will the majority of the top ten running backs and wide receivers. Using those groups as a rough starting point, eliminate players you may not feel as strongly about as the consensus. For me, this would include players like Arian Foster, Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz.
The next step is to identify players that do not rank in the top ten of consensus dynasty rankings, yet are players that you value higher than most. I have several players that fit into this category. The example I mentioned last week was Redskins rookie tight end Jordan Reed. I already rank Reed as TE12, while most others rank him somewhere between TE20 and TE40. Obviously, if someone makes me an offer expecting to pay TE25 prices, that is not an offer I would consider. Just last week, I was offered wide receiver Leonard Hankerson for Reed. While this might be fair value for a tight end ranking in the twenties or thirties, this offer was not close, considering how highly I value Reed.
In most cases, these players will be younger, high-upside players who have not proven themselves yet, but can count you amongst their believers. One issue is that these much-hyped players are often found on many different owners’ list of destination players. One example this year would be rookie running back Christine Michael. Though he has done almost nothing on the field as a professional, he is still greatly valued by many dynasty players. Once you begin to receive offers for players like Michael, it will truly test your label of him as a destination player. You may find others like him even more than you and are, in fact, willing to pay your high price.
Acquiring Destination Players:
As I mentioned with analyzing your team, there are countless articles discussing specific trade strategies, so I will focus on some very basic principles of trading when it comes to destination players.
First, I often see and hear owners saying a certain player is not available for trade. Clearly, this owner considers the specific player a destination player, whether they realize that or not. With that said, it is still not a good practice to take any player off the table completely. After all, you never know when someone places even more value on a given player than you do. Always be willing to listen to offers and don’t be afraid to trade a player from your destination player list if you are getting one or more of those players in return.
Another trade axiom that is often recklessly thrown around is the idea that the team getting the best player wins the trade. While I understand the thought behind that, I think the term “best player” is often used too stringently. After all, we all value players differently. Late last season, I added Browns’ wide receiver Josh Gordon to my list of destination players in all league formats. I began sending out offers to acquire Gordon in as many leagues as possible. In one league, after some back and forth negotiations, I settled with my trade partner on an agreement that called for me sending Antonio Brown and a high third round pick in exchange for Gordon and a late third round pick. Now, at this time, Brown was considered the more valuable player by far. The trade drew some comments from other owners in the league. Not only did I give up the best player, but I gave up the higher pick. Though Brown has had an excellent year with the Steelers, I feel confident about the outcome of the trade because I was able to acquire one of my destination players. As you can imagine, I’ve had many offers for Gordon since, but he won’t be going anywhere.
Finally, one idea that you should remember when crafting dynasty trades is that you should not be able to give up multiple players that are not considered destination players in exchange for one who is. It is often difficult to complete unbalanced trades in which you give two or three players in exchange for one. Owners can be leery of trading top players for a collection of pieces. To avoid that negative perception, craft a trade offer in which you give up highly valued players that are not destination players for you. For example, a trade in which you give Arian Foster for Justin Blackmon may be considered an overpay for many dynasty owners, but if Blackmon is a player that makes your list, while Foster is not, then the deal makes sense for your team. That is not to say that you always have to give up market value in trades, but you should not be afraid to do so either.
Check back next week for the final installment of the Destination Players series when I reveal my current list of Destination Players, along with some commentary on how they made the list.
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