The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

lynch

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. In my 12-team, TE-premium PPR league I was offered to trade Keenan Allen for Ryan Broyles and Brandon Pettigrew. My current tight ends are Jimmy Graham and Rob Housler, and my main receivers are Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker. I need a bye week fill-in for Graham, but Housler plays Seattle and has done nothing to date. Do I give up a young talent like Allen?Jake in CA

I play in one re-draft league a year (rest assured, it’s just a fling – dynasty remains my true love), and truth be told I don’t even really plan around my players’ bye weeks in that type of temporary setting.  So you can imagine how this type of laissez-faire attitude is amplified in a dynasty league, where you’re more than likely going to deal with years of bye weeks, so long as the player in question remains rostered.  Simply put, losing output for one week of one year is a figurative blip on the radar – we all want to win every matchup, but a long-term approach remains tantamount to perennial success.

With that in mind, I wouldn’t rush to make a trade just to cover your bases for one week.  Moreover, I especially wouldn’t make the trade when it involves underselling a player like the Chargers’ Keenan Allen, who has rapidly ascended the fantasy ranks so far in this young season.  Let’s consider how far he’s come in the matter of a few short months.

Left for dead by many following an injury-plagued 2012 campaign at the University of California, and a subsequent poor showing in the 40-yard dash (4.71 seconds), it was popularly opined that Allen didn’t have the desired “measurables” to succeed at the NFL level.  Now, only six weeks into the 2013 season (along with roughly 46 injuries to San Diego pass catchers), Allen is the Chargers’ second leading receiver (behind the venerable Antonio Gates), and is only eight yards off the pace of Houston’s first round pick DeAndre Hopkins, who leads all rookies in receiving.  Indeed, it appears those overlooking Allen’s production (including 31 other NFL franchises) during his last healthy college season in 2011 have enough egg on their respective faces to make enough omelets to feed a small family.

So the thought of parting with Allen for the combination of glacial tight end Brandon Pettigrew and injury-riddled receiver Ryan Broyles is one I’d choose to banish from my mind post haste.  Broyles appears to have been bypassed by the pedestrian Kris Durham, and Pettigrew’s short-yardage game has all but evaporated due to the presence of pass-catching backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell.  Even though you’re well off at receiver, I’d want a lot more in return for Allen – especially if it’s just to cover Jimmy Graham’s absence for one week.

2. My team in my 14-team, non-PPR league is doing poorly, and with Marshawn Lynch possibly declining next year I’m thinking about trading him. Would it be a good idea to trade Lynch and Carson Palmer for DeMarco Murray and Terrelle Pryor, plus first and second round rookie picks in 2014? My receivers are rebuilding as Steve Smith and Vincent Jackson getting up there in age. If this trade got accepted, I would have the duo of Gio Bernard and Murray for years to come. Thoughts? Bo in FL

Despite his consistent production over the past few years, the Seahawks’ Marshawn Lynch is one of the bigger wild cards in dynasty football right now.  While he’s currently the focal point of the Seattle offense and should continue to be for the remainder of the 2013 season, his future is uncertain.  Due a non-guaranteed $5.5 million and still facing the fallout stemming from a 2012 DUI infraction, 2014 stands as a pivotal year for bruising ball carrier and it’s no lock he’ll continue toting the rock in the cozy confines of the Pacific Northwest.

As such, the optimal time for rebuilding squads to sell the current overall non-PPR RB3 can be summed up in four short words:  as soon as possible.  He remains a short-term asset for contenders, potentially enabling their squads to beast-mode their way to a championship and all the Skittles money can buy.  But how much is enough for the talented, but mercurial running back?

I think the combination of Cowboys’ ball carrier DeMarco Murray, Raiders’ quarterback Terrelle Pryor, plus the two picks fits the bill.  Murray, when healthy (okay, so this part has proven to be tricky), offers fringe RB1 ability, and should remain Dallas’ primary back for the foreseeable future.  Pryor, though still relatively unproven, is the perfect “project” quarterback for a 14-team league, and he should continue to improve with experience.  The addition of the picks tips ultimately tips the scales in your favor.

As with any veteran player (including both Steve Smith and Vincent Jackson, who you should also look to move), the most important trade factor remains time.  With every game Lynch plays (note I’m omitting Cardinals’ quarterback Carson Palmer as an integral part of this deal, as befits his current fantasy irrelevance), his value dips just a little bit more as prospective owners lose another 60 minutes of potential production.  So given the offer on the table, as well as the current state of your team, I’d accept this before the other owner has any second thoughts.

3. In my 12-man, PPR keeper league I am looking to trade for “now” players, as I field a competitive team. In terms of 2014 draft picks, what would you give up for Knowshon Moreno, Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon or Giovani Bernard? Each team keeps 14 players every year.Rich in CA

In a 12-team league with 14 keepers, simple mathematics dictate that 168 players will remain rostered between seasons.  As such, it’s important to discern not only the quality of the 2014 rookies, but also that of the leftover veterans.  As it turns out, the DLF staff is currently taking part in an “in-season” mock draft, and I can share with you some of the names hovering around the 169th overall pick.

This list includes, but is not limited to players such as Gavin Escobar, Fred Jackson, Eli Manning, Brian Quick, Travis Kelce, Anquan Boldin, Ladarius Green, Santonio Holmes, Joseph Randle and Vance McDonald.  In other words, we have a mix of veterans with short-term potential, along with a slew of promising rookies.  No, there aren’t any definitive game-breakers there, but the addition of these types of players to the general pool only serves to further inflate the value of the 2014 rookie/free agent picks.

As such, these are the values I’d place on the four players you mentioned:

Gio Bernard and Pierre Garcon – Offer both your first and second round picks for either one, and pray your trade partner mistakenly accepts following a long night of heavy drinking.  All kidding aside, I firmly believe both Bernard and Garcon can be viewed as cornerstone players at their respective positions and you’ll more than likely need to offer more than just draft picks to obtain either one.

Wes Welker – I think this one is pretty cut and dry.  Welker offers short-term potential for the next few years, but similar to Lynch in the question above he isn’t doing non-contenders any good.  They would likely happily part with his services for a first round selection.

Knowshon Moreno – It’s extremely challenging to gauge Moreno’s current worth.  On one hand, he’s a young-ish (26) workhorse with passing-game prowess and goal-line chops.  On the flip side, his viability is inextricably linked to the presence of all-world quarterback Peyton Manning, but unfortunately Moreno is in the final year of his Denver contract.  He could likely land a starting job on the open market, but will his efficiency suffer in a lesser offense?  Given this concern, I’d open with a second-round pick, but be prepared to sweeten the deal.

4. I’m currently winning my league and also boast a ton of bench depth.  Another contending team has inquired about the availability of my bench running backs and is willing to offer some combination of 2014 rookie picks, of which I have very few.  My question is would you willingly make your competition better in order to help prepare for the future or would you cut off negotiating with the other good teams to try to win now?Dan in IL

Though Dan claims to reside in Illinois, on a metaphorical level he’s clearly stuck between a rock and a hard place.  It’s always tempting to tinker with your roster and capitalize with shrewd deals whenever possible, but are you truly helping yourself if you do anything that lessens your chances of winning right now?  Put another way, how do you appropriately balance both the short and long-term outlooks of your team?

I know I talked earlier about how perpetual success should always be the goal in a dynasty setting, but when you have a legitimate chance to win it all you need to focus on the here and now.  No, I don’t think any one trade will solidify an end result one way or the other, but if making a trade markedly diminishes your odds of succeeding, why risk it?  I think you should stand pat.

A lot can happen on both a weekly and yearly basis, so trading away your bench depth could hurt on multiple levels.  Firstly, if any of your starters were to suffer an injury, you’d now potentially lack a competent backup – this obviously hurts you right now.  On a more enduring level, even though your team might have the looks of a multi-year contender, things don’t always work out as planned.  If you sacrifice the present, there are no guarantees you’ll have more chances in the future.

Sure, by not taking advantage of a surplus of quality players now you run the risk that you won’t be able to do so at a later date.  However, if a running back starved team is lacking now, odds are they’ll be lacking at the conclusion of the season as well.  Why not try making a trade then, or better yet after the NFL Draft when rookie picks tend to lose some value?  You might not get the same return you would now, but a clearer path to your league championship is a pretty decent consolation prize.

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eric hardter