Bye Week Scouting Report: Miami and Atlanta
After four teams took the weekend off last week, only two get the bye in week six, Miami and Atlanta. Let’s get right to it.
Miami Dolphins
Coming into the season, many fantasy owners were looking forward to seeing the Dolphins offense. Lamar Miller was being hyped as an every week RB2, Mike Wallace was going to become the deep threat needed in Miami and Ryan Tannehill would have the opportunity to build off the year he had as a rookie in 2012.
Fast forward to the present and you see a big problem with those expectations. The offensive line has been, well, offensive and the coaching staff has made some questionable decisions.
Tannehill has been under constant duress. He’s been sacked a league high 24 times, which puts him on pace to threaten David Carr’s record of 76 sacks in a season. The run blocking hasn’t been much better, either. The Dolphins rank 19th in the league at 3.7 yards per carry and 28th in the league with 69.6 rushing yards per game.
All the blame can’t be put squarely on the big guys up front however. Head coach Joe Philbin and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman should take some responsibility.
For reasons unknown by most, snaps were being split evenly between Miller (94) and Daniel Thomas (93) through three games despite Miller averaging mare than a yard-and-a-half more per carry.
Philbin and Sherman haven’t given the running game a fair chance to succeed either. The offense ranks 30th in rushing attempts with only 19 per game, which has led to the Dolphins becoming one of the worst in the league in time of possession and created a one-dimensional offense with a weak offensive line and a second-year quarterback at the helm.
As the season progresses, it’s hard to see much changing without the coaching staff altering its philosophy.
Miller still has a high upside, but it can’t be realized with only ten carries per game. He also hasn’t been part of the passing game, catching only five passes for 45 yards. On a positive note, he’s been on the field for 79 of the Dolphins’ 119 (66%) offensive plays over the last two games. Thomas has only played 30 snaps (25%), so it looks like the timeshare is starting to work in the favor of Miller. Still, if Miami continues to run the ball less than 20 times a week, Miller’s fantasy impact won’t increase, leaving his owners looking for other options.
Tannehill’s prospects for the rest of the season are similar to Miller’s. Without help, he’ll likely continue to rank in the middle of the pack among fantasy quarterbacks. The pressure he’s faced has affected his production greatly. His completion percentage dips from 62.6% to 47.7% when under pressure and he’s thrown three of his five interceptions when feeling the heat. Miami receivers dropping a league high 17 passes hasn’t helped his cause either.
Personally, I’m a believer in Tannehill. As a rookie, he was overshadowed by fellow greenhorn quarterbacks, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson. He lacked weapons in the passing game but showed accuracy and poise in the pocket as well as the ability to make things happen with his feet when necessary.
This year, Tannehill’s weapons are improved and his play, for the most part, has improved as well. While he’ll most likely be nothing more than a QB2 this season, I believe he has a bright future and his upside lies in the mid-to-low-end QB1 conversation. I would buy him as my QB2 or QB3 at this point and watch him develop into a contributor over the next year and a half.
Tannehill and Wallace haven’t been on the same page through five games. Although he’s been targeted 43 times, Wallace has only caught 22 passes for 281 yards and one touchdown. To add insult to injury, two of Tannehill’s five interceptions have come on passes intended for Wallace and the former Steeler is tied for the league lead with six drops. I doubt those are the numbers the Dolphins envisioned when they signed him to the third biggest contract ever signed by a wide receiver back in March.
Wallace has proved to more of the problem than the solution thus far in 2013 and has been outshined by both Brian Hartline (37 targets, 25 receptions, 332 yards and two touchdowns) and Brandon Gibson (33, 24, 282, and 0). While they are all worthy of a roster spot in most leagues, I wouldn’t trust any of them as more than a WR4 at this point. If I could still get value for Wallace based on his name, I’d do it.
The surprise of the Dolphins’ passing game has been Charles Clay who’s been a solid contributor, catching 23 passes for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns, not to mention his rushing score in week two. He’s played 84% of the teams snaps so far and is becoming a relied upon red zone target for Tannehill.
Quietly averaging more than 14 fantasy points per game (PPR) coming into the bye, Clay’s snuck his way into the top ten among tight ends in both standard and PPR leagues and makes for a solid TE2 as the season goes on. He has the potential to become an even bigger part the Miami offense this season and beyond and is a very interesting trade target at this point.
Kicker Caleb Sturgis has also been very solid. He has a strong leg and looks like he can finish as a top ten option in most scoring setups. I’d consider him to be one of the top ranked kickers in all dynasty leagues, if I put such a list together.
|
Buy |
Sell |
Hold |
|
Ryan Tannehill Charles Clay |
Daniel Thomas Mike Wallace |
Lamar Miller Brian Hartline Brandon Gibson Caleb Sturgis |
Atlanta Falcons
The bye may be coming at just the right time for the Falcons. Not only is the team 1-4 and four games behind the Saints in the NFC South, but injuries are starting to pile up just as fast as the losses.
Coming into the season, fantasy owners were counting on another big year from the Falcons offense. In 2012, they featured a top-five fantasy quarterback, two top-ten fantasy wide receivers and a top-three tight end. For good measure, they added a perennial top-20 running back in the off-season. Expectations were high, to say the least.
Then the season started with Roddy White on the injury report due to a high-ankle sprain. A couple of weeks in, Steven Jackson joined him with a hamstring injury. Then on Monday night, Julio Jones went down for the season with a fractured foot and White hobbled off the field with a hamstring injury of his own.
To add insult to all those injuries, the offensive line been dreadful and the defense hasn’t played to the level it did a year ago.
Clearly, these aren’t the 2012 Falcons.
On the bright side, Matt Ryan has played well to this point. He’s on pace to throw for more yards (5,276), just as many touchdowns (32) and fewer interceptions (10) than he did in 2012.
With Jones sidelined, Ryan needs White more than ever. Going into Monday night, it was clear the Falcons believed White’s ankle was getting healthier. After playing only 119 of the Falcons’ 194 snaps (61%) over the first three weeks, he was on the field for 74 of 76 plays in week four against the Patriots. Then against the Jets, he played nearly every snap until hurting his hamstring. Now nobody knows when White will return to the lineup. Or more importantly, how effective he’ll be when that time comes.
After a relatively slow start, Tony Gonzalez has been very active in the passing game. Over the past two weeks, he’s been targeted 26 times and made 22 receptions for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Even at the age of 37, he’s an ideal fantasy tight end. Of the 223 times Ryan has dropped back to pass this season, he’s run a route on 200 of them (second only to Owen Daniels among tight ends with 209), and been targeted 44 times (second only to Jimmy Graham with 51). Some of these numbers are encouraging but due to injuries, it’ll be difficult to rely on many Falcons as weekly fantasy contributors outside of Gonzalez as the season progresses.
Although Ryan is on pace to put up career numbers, it’s hard to imagine he reaches them with Jones out of the lineup and White playing on one leg. On top of the injuries to his receivers, the downfield passing game hasn’t been the same for Ryan and the Falcons this year and could point to problems going forward.
So far in 2013, Ryan’s only attempted 14 passes to targets at least 20 yards downfield, which equates to just 2.8 “shots” downfield per game. In 2012, Ryan attempted 67 of such passes, which is more than four per game – ten of those “shots” downfield turned into touchdowns last season, only one has this year.
Even more interesting, Jones has been the target on nine of those 14 attempts this year. The only other wide out to be targeted downfield is Harry Douglas with three and he hasn’t caught any of them.
So the Falcons are already taking fewer shots down the field than they did a year ago and are now without their best deep threat. Some might think this shows that Ryan can put up big numbers without the deep ball. That’s probably not true, however. Without Jones to take double coverage and stretch the field for underneath routes, defenses should be able to pay more attention to Gonzalez and White, making it much more difficult for Ryan to put up those gaudy passing numbers.
In the short term, Ryan will no doubt have good games. Just not quite as good and not quite as many, as his fantasy owners have grown accustomed to. The Atlanta defense, which ranks 21st in points allowed (giving up 26.8 per game) will continue allowing opposing offenses to light up the scoreboard. In turn, Ryan will continue to sling it to try to keep up. Without all of his weapons however, it’s hard to see him finishing as a top-ten fantasy quarterback.
Jackson’s scheduled to be back after the bye week. He’s proven over the years to be capable of being a workhorse that can take pressure off a subpar offensive line and lacking receiver corps, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 and coming off an injury that could reappear at any time.
As long as he’s healthy, Jackson should be dependable but certainly not spectacular. He faces three top-ten rushing defenses after the bye, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Carolina, but even if teams stack the box to stop the run, Ryan has targeted running backs an average of ten times per game this season. So owners of Jackson, who’s a very good pass catcher, should expect between four and six receptions per game.
Anybody who assumes Jackson will be an instant full-time RB2 will probably be disappointed, but he should be reliable in the right matchup going forward as long as he stays healthy, especially in PPR leagues.
White’s fantasy value going forward is tied directly to his health. He’s been a number one receiver in the past and could be again if 100%, but I’m beginning to doubt that will happen this season. If I had him in a dynasty league, I’d hold onto him and hope the week off helps, and he gets healthy sooner rather than later.
Many fantasy owners will look to Douglas to fill in the void left by the injury to Jones. Those that are looking to add Douglas should remember that he’s never proven to provide fantasy value when given opportunities in the past and Ryan will likely just look to Gonzalez and White more.
Contending teams with a hole at tight end would be wise to try to acquire Gonzalez at this point. He’s likely to retire at the end of the season and should have a reasonable price tag if he’s on a team that’s not in contention. As Ryan’s security blanket, he should get a minimum of ten targets per game for the rest of the season.
While going after Gonzo is a good strategy for many, the true trade target on the Falcons roster is actually their best player, Jones. Every dynasty owner should look into trading for Julio, especially if the owner that has him is a contender and you’re not. In that case, you should make an offer that will keep them in the hunt. If you’re both contenders and you have a surplus at receiver, offer one of them up. If you’re a contender and they’re not, try to make an offer anyway. And if you’re the one that owns Julio, make sure you get proper value before even considering selling him.
|
Buy |
Sell |
Hold |
|
Julio Jones Tony Gonzalez |
Harry Douglas |
Matt Ryan Steven Jackson Roddy White |
Follow me on Twitter: @dmeylor22
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