The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. What’s a reasonable offer for Jimmy Graham in a 12-team, half-PPR league that starts one tight end? I’m willing to give up Eric Decker and Julius Thomas, plus a 2014 first round pick – is that a fair offer? Decker would be an upgrade at receiver for the Graham owner (his current options are Kenbrell Thompkins, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, Kenny Britt and Vincent Brown). – Kevin in Dantooine
When it comes to the Saints’ Jimmy Graham, no long-winded preamble is necessary to expound upon his greatness. All we need to do is look to the numbers, which through five games stand at a robust 37 receptions for 593 yards and six touchdowns. On a weekly basis that equates to 7.4 receptions for 118.6 yards and 1.2 touchdowns, which in a half-PPR setting is good for a mind boggling 22.8 fantasy points every time he takes the field.
To put that number into perspective, the next closest tight end, Jordan Cameron, averages 17.2 points per game. While that total is more than respectable, it’s only 75% of Graham’s output, a stark difference considering we’re talking about the top two scorers at the position. But the advantages don’t end there.
Graham isn’t just fantasy’s top tight end – he’s fantasy’s best overall pass catcher. The Falcons’ Julio Jones leads all receivers at 18.4 points per game, an eye-popping total that’s still 19% off Graham’s scoring pace. So suffice it to say, convincing an owner to part with Graham is going to be about as easy as collecting a paycheck if you’re an ancillary government employee!
With that said, it’s not as if you’re coming in with a lowball attempt. The pair of Broncos with whom you’d potentially be parting, receiver Eric Decker and tight end Julius Thomas, are both high-caliber options. Despite the crowded Denver landscape, Decker remains a high-end WR2, and Thomas has been a revelation as a breakout TE1 option. Adding the first round pick increases the value of the offer even further, although conventional wisdom suggests the addition of Graham to your starting lineup will undoubtedly cause it to fall a few spots.
Nevertheless, I don’t think you’ll be able to pull it off. Graham is currently on the Calvin Johnson level of untouchability, and I believe you’ll need to up the ante a little bit – maybe replace Decker with someone like Victor Cruz, and ask for Kenbrell Thompkins back in along with Graham. It might seem like an overpay, but that’s the price of acquiring fantasy’s most valuable player.
2. In my 12-team non-PPR league, the other owners are up in arms over a trade I recently completed with one of the top contending teams, where I acquired AJ Green and Torrey Smith for Adrian Peterson and Larry Fitzgerald. My other running backs are Lamar Miller, Ben Tate, Daryl Richardson and Mark Ingram. My other receivers are Randall Cobb, Kenny Britt and Greg Little. Our league is very shallow and we only get to keep 14 players year to year with max rosters of 18. At 2-2 my team has a shot at the playoffs but without help at receiver I believe I’m destined to be mediocre. Is this trade that bad? – Brad in CA
I don’t think it’s a bad trade by any stretch of the imagination. While it’s true that pass catchers lose value in a non-PPR setting, being able to obtain two young, WR1-level receivers is still a massive coup. Let’s start with what you’ve won.
Despite it being only his third season in the league, the Bengals’ AJ Green is a known and proven commodity. Just 25 years old, the former first round pick has already flashed elite route running and ball skills, and is even considered by some to be the 1b to Calvin Johnson’s 1a in the wide receiver pecking order. At this point in time, seemingly the only things that could hold him back are injuries and continued poor quarterback play by Cincinnati signal caller Andy Dalton. The sky is the limit.
Not terribly far behind in value is the Ravens’ Torrey Smith, who is seemingly fulfilling his promise (as one of our own predicted months ago) as a high-end pass catcher. Thus far in 2013, Smith is averaging a whopping 20.6 yards-per-catch while also corralling a career best 52.9% of his targets. He’s not getting into the end zone much (just one touchdown thus far), so it’s reasonable to expect his fantasy prowess to grow even further as he approaches his previous career average of 0.46 touchdowns per game. Truth be told, if we drafted today I would take Smith (and obviously Green) ahead of the Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald, one of the pieces with whom you were forced to part.
So even though you had to give up the transcendent Adrian Peterson (inarguably the number one running back in non-PPR formats), I like the deal for you. You were stuck in your league’s mushy middle, and subsequently made a shrewd move to improve the longevity of your roster. Don’t worry about your league mates – their responses are nothing more than sour grapes, stemming from the fact that they didn’t think to trade with you themselves.
3. Is it finally time to consider trading away Trent Richardson? I know he’s only 22 and just moved to a new team, but after the disappointing performances against Jacksonville and Seattle, questions have started surfacing about his vision and decision-making. That’s on top of the questions that already existed regarding his durability. I’d hate to give away a potential young stud, but I also don’t want to be left holding a grenade that blows up in my face if he busts. Do I stay the course and hold or try to sell while he still has value? What would I expect to get if I shopped him? – Jordan in Vancouver
I’m a known advocate of the Colts’ Trent Richardson, so it’s more than likely what I say will be construed as excuse making. In spite of that, I’ll present my four-part case for why you should hang onto the young running back:
- You can’t hold his time in Cleveland against him – As a Brown, Richardson only rushed for a paltry 3.54 yards per carry, but he was sharing a backfield with draft bust Brandon Weeden. Also, the only other skill position player worth his salt was fellow rookie Josh Gordon, who hadn’t seen the playing field in over two years. The team simply wasn’t built to compete on offense.
- He’s been on the Colts for under three weeks – No, he hasn’t shown much thus far in the box scores, but remember – this is a second year player still learning a new playbook. Also, two of his three opponents thus far were Seattle and San Francisco, which each sport strong defenses.
- He’s not actually running that poorly – According to Pro Football Focus, Richardson is breaking tackles at a league-best rate, and the vast majority of his yards have occurred after first contact. Rotoworld’s Evan Silva (@evansilva) studied the film and opined that T-Rich has been dancing too much in the backfield instead of instinctively hitting the hole. This should improve once he becomes accustomed to the Colts’ personnel and schemes.
- The volume is there – If nothing else, Richardson is set for 20 touches a game because there’s no one else left in the backfield. Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw have both been placed on injured reserve, meaning only the pedestrian Donald Brown remains to potentially siphon away carries. Combined with Richardson receiving the majority of goal-line looks, it’s an enviable position to be in.
It’s entirely possible Richardson still doesn’t understand what it means to be a consummate professional, but not every player “gets it” right away. If he’s still struggling with the mental aspects of the game, the physical talent remains, even if temporarily dormant. It would be a shame to sell now and miss out on the benefits when the light turns on.
However, if you’re sold on trading Richardson, you should be targeting top young talent. Maybe you could snag CJ Spiller, another ball carrier off to a slow start, or even inquire about Doug Martin given the current dumpster fire scenario in Tampa Bay. If you want to improve at receiver, see if the owners of players like Randall Cobb or Gordon are interested. You could possibly even coerce the Rob Gronkowski owner to part with him, should he need running back help. If I were you though, I wouldn’t abandon ship just yet.
4. I am a middle of the pack in my ten-team dynasty and I have been offered LeSean McCoy and a second round rookie pick for my Gio Bernard, TY Hilton and a first round rookie pick. Hilton is a bench receiver for me. This is my first year in a dynasty league and I am not sure if this is a good deal. Thoughts? – Kevin in Canada
When new head coach Chip Kelly took over the reins of the Philadelphia Eagles, there was a lot of mystery surrounding the scope of the offense. There were question marks at quarterback, as well as some regarding the usage of the other skill positions. However, with enough of the season in the rear view mirror it’s now become glaringly obvious that Kelly is going to let his scheme flow directly through one player, and that’s running back LeSean McCoy.
Through five games McCoy leads all running backs in carries (98), total touches (117) and rushing yards (514). Perhaps more importantly, McCoy has handled the vast majority of work in the backfield, receiving 74.8% of all the carries by running backs (quarterback Michael Vick has 33 carries of his own as well). This has led to a top three ranking in both PPR and non-PPR settings, rewarding owners who bought low on the Shady one following a mediocre 2012 campaign.
Considering McCoy is only 25 years old and still has under 1,000 career carries to his name, this early-season surge has led to a huge bump in value. No, he likely won’t continue to receive 23 touches a game (easily a career high), and sophomore Bryce Brown will probably become more involved sooner rather than later. Even if that happens though, McCoy’s exemplary efficiency (5.2 yards-per-carry and 4.3 yards-per-catch) should ensure volume won’t ever be an issue.
So if you can snare McCoy for the combination of the Bengals’ Gio Bernard, the Colts’ TY Hilton and a swapping of draft picks, it’s an easy accept for me. Bernard has looked good early on and stands primed to see an increase in usage before long, but the odds remain slim he’ll ever shape up to be a 20-carry per game type of player – I liken him instead to a rich man’s Pierre Thomas. Losing Hilton, one of my favorite receivers of the 2012 class, shouldn’t be enough of a roadblock to make you want to reverse course. Shady is the “real McCoy,” and obtaining his services will make your starting lineup that much stronger.
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