Divisional Debriefing: Week Five

Eric Olinger

nfl: new orleans saints at chicago bears

Each week we are going to give a player from each division a “Player of the Week” honor. In an attempt to not cram the same info down your throat that you might find elsewhere, we are going to try to focus on players that weren’t draft day all-stars. In some cases they won’t even be rostered in redraft leagues, but guys that are worth stashing in dynasty leagues. We are going to focus on guys that have yielded the greatest return on your investment. You don’t need to be told Peyton Manning had a great day. He was drafted in such a spot that it was expected. Same with LeSean McCoy, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson. That’s not to say that we won’t honor a truly elite performance, especially from rookies.

As part of a group collaboration, members of the DLF Staff have chosen to represent a division and will be selecting which players will be getting the “gold star” for the week. As an added bonus, I will also include the most impressive IDP performances of the week for each division, because defensive players need love too!

Here is who is will be nominating players for each division:

AFC West- Scott Peak  @Scott_Peak

AFC East- Jeff Beran  @JefeBeran

AFC North- Eric Olinger  @OlingerIDP

AFC South- Tim Stafford  @DynastyTim

NFC West- The FF Ghost  @TheFFGhost

NFC East- Karl Safchick  @KarlSafchick

NFC North- Dan Meylor  @DMeylor22

NFC South- Eric Hardter  @EDH_27

AFC East

Geno Smith, QB NYJ

A week after turning the ball over four times and a QBR rating of 7.8 against the Tennessee Titans, Geno Smith put on his big boy pants on went to work. Against the Atlanta Falcons on a national stage, Smith was calm, collected, efficient, and a true difference maker. He completed 16 of 20 passes for 199 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers for a QBR of 73.2. His game winning drive was his best of the season. He’s going to have ups and downs like any rookie but he’s showing glimpses of comfort and we seen a little bit of the West Virginia Geno Smith Monday night. As the Jets surround him with more weapons he will become a much better fantasy option.

IDP- Manny Lawson, LB BUF

While all the attention is currently given to rookie Kiki Alonso, and rightfully so, there is another linebacker in Buffalo quickly becoming a force, and it’s Manny Lawson. Against the Browns he finished with four solo tackles, three assists, and a forced a fumble. He has had at least five total tackles the last four weeks, including a game versus the Jets with 14 total tackles. Lawson has legit LB3 status the rest of the season, especially with bye weeks coming up.

AFC South

Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

Back from his suspension, this guy looks like he’s on a mission. A huge touchdown catch to open the game and then a sweet stat line of five catches for 136 yards and a touchdown on nine targets says Blackmon is here to stay. The only thing slowing him down is poor quarterback play, but that’s countered by Jacksonville constantly playing from behind. Get him in your line-ups going forward. He looked quicker than before and hopefully has learned his lessons.

IDP- John Cyprien, S JAX

The Jaguars might not know how to draft quarterbacks but they apparently know a safety when they see one. Cyprien was a tackling machine against the Rams. His 13 tackles, all solo, easily led the team. Coming out of small school Florida International, many wondered if there would be an adjustment phase to his game. Nope. He’s doing just fine. Along with Paul Posluszny, Cyprien is a nucleus player for the Jaguars. For a team who will be on defense a ton this year, he will have ample opportunity to put up big numbers. This is just the tip of the iceberg.

AFC North

Tyler Eifert, TE CIN

On a team desperate for someone to step up and draw attention away from A.J. Green, Eifert is becoming the most likely player to do so. On Sunday against New England, he finished with seven targets and was able to reel in five catches for 53 yards. His seven targets were also second on the team, only one behind A.J. Green’s eight. Right now Andy Dalton is struggling and this team is winning with a strong defense, an ok running game, and a “don’t screw this up for us” passing game. Eifert has a ton of long term dynasty value but he should also see a steady rise in value for the rest of this season as a move tight end. His huge catch radius and ability to attack the ball at its high point will force Jay Gruden and Marvin Lewis to not only play, but feature him.

IDP- Buster Skrine, DB CLE

If nothing else, Buster Skrine is resilient. After getting thoroughly manhandled to start the season he has settled down and not only become a legit fantasy option, but a decent real life cornerback too. This Browns defense under Ray Horton is quickly taking shape and becoming what we saw in Arizona. Thursday night against the Bills, Skrine collected six tackles, all solo, a sack, and two passes defended. As long as Joe Haden is shadowing number one receivers, quarterbacks are going to target Skrine and give him plenty of opportunities to accumulate stats.

AFC West

Chad Hall vs Dexter McCluster, WR KC

Cue eye rolls, laugh track and start throwing tomatoes at me. Yes, Chad Hall just got mentioned in a fantasy football column. Donnie Avery sustained a shoulder injury, described as a contusion. X-rays were negative, which is great, but that only rules out a fracture or dislocation. Given he could not raise his arm above his head, that could be from pain related to a bruise, and he should not miss many games. Avery does have a long history of injuries, and expecting him to remain fully healthy this year seems like a losing proposition. It is interesting that, in the first four games, Hall had a total of 4 snaps combined. Yet in week 5, that number jumped to 18 snaps. He had four targets and one reception. Hall actually had another target, but it got wiped away by a penalty. That doesn’t sound great, but perennial disappointment AJ Jenkins had 30 snaps, yet just one target. Hall has a history with Andy Reid dating back to their time in Philadelphia, and Alex Smith loves the check down. Dexter McCluster has never seemed to grasp the opportunity to be the short-yardage target for the Chiefs. Hall may not amount to much, and that is the most likely scenario. Still, with Avery out, somebody has to step up. It could be McCluster. But keep an eye on Hall. We have seen players come out of nowhere to provide surprising production, like Brandon Stokley in 2012. When you consider that Reid uses a pass-happy system, Smith has a propensity to check down, and Avery’s injury (30 targets and 247 snaps in 2013), somebody has to emerge as a target in this offense. My bet is on McCluster or Hall. It might sound insane, but in PPR leagues, Hall could have value as an injury replacement or as bye-week filler. Hall may not warrant an add right now, but with Avery injured, opportunity exists for a second wide receiver in a Reid offense, and that alone is worth monitoring.

IDP- Nick Roach, LB OAK

Nothing makes me more furious in the IDP world than seeing a player with Roach’s stat line- three solo tackles and nine assists. How can a player be involved in 12 total stops and be assisted in nine of them. Score keepers need to stop sharing the love and award players solely. The bright side is he was around the ball 12 times. Most weeks he won’t get the short end of the straw so many times. This week Kevin Burnett was the man but next week could easily be Roach vs. Kansas City.

NFC East

Zach Ertz, TE PHI

Ertz is one of the few players that will be featured in this series that has true star potential. While he didn’t have a breakout game statistically in week five (three targets, two catches, 38 yards), the buy low window will be closing quickly. More important than his stat line, was the praise he received by his veteran signal caller. This past week, Michael Vick said “In time, he will be one of the best tight ends in the league.” I agree. Not only does he have the talent, he faces some horrible secondaries for the majority of the remainder of the season. A smart dynasty owner would start aggressively pursuing this young pass catcher.

IDP- Michal Kendricks, LB PHI

There was an awful lot of talk this past week about Mychal Kendricks being a disappointment in this defense. He responded in a big way against the Giants by affecting every aspect of the game. He had three solo tackles and an assist to go with an interception and a fumble recovery. The numbers usually aren’t there for inside linebackers when they face a team throwing 52 times and only running it 17 times but Kendricks made his presence felt. He should easily return to LB2 status when they face Doug Martin and the Tampa Bay Bucs in week six.

NFC South

Pierre Thomas, RB NO

Readers might recall I nominated Thomas for a breakout “way back” before the second week of the season.  Well, as the old saying goes, good things come to those who wait, as he finally delivered the goods in a strong effort against the Chicago Bears.  Indeed, largely on the back of his nine receptions and two touchdowns, Thomas thrilled owners desperate enough to start him with a robust 30.1 PPR fantasy points.  But can it continue?

Thomas’ previous usage would suggest this is the best we’ll get from him in 2013.  His 28 touches on Sunday represent 37% of his yearly workload, and were 11 more than his previous season high.  In fact, for his career Thomas has only averaged a paltry 10.9 touches per game.  This is the biggest pitfall of the Saints’ offense – they spread the wealth in a seemingly indeterminable pattern.  For all we know, next week it could be Darren Sproles or Khiry Robinson (okay, we can at least rule out the putrid Mark Ingram) functioning as the primary beneficiary.

With that said, Thomas should still carry RB3 or Flex level value for the rest of the season.  He’s the most well rounded back on the team, and also the best pass-blocker.  Moreover, I suspect his yards-per-carry (currently at 2.9) will begin to resemble his career average of 4.6 sooner rather than later, affording a greater efficiency when he gets his opportunities.  If someone is willing to chase the points, I would have no problem “trading in” the PT Cruiser, but for now I view him as a solid PPR “hold” as a jack of all trades in one of the league’s best offenses.

IDP- Kenny Vaccaro, S NOS

This group of rookie safeties are impressive. Jon Cyprien, Kenny Vaccaro, and Eric Reid are all playing like veterans. Vaccaro is giving Rob Ryan the versatile skill set needed to effectively run his disruptive defense. Practically interchangeable with Malcolm Jenkins, offenses have problems identifying who is blitzing and who is dropping into coverage. Sunday against the Bears he totaled six solo tackles, a sack, and a pass defended. In this scheme there are going to be up and down weeks but his long term value is undeniable.

NFC North

Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

Last week, I caught some flak for not choosing Jeffery as the NFC North MVP. Obviously, I only did it because I knew he’d nearly double his fantasy output from week four, this past weekend against the Saints. After catching ten passes for 218 yards and a touchdown in week five, Jeffery and the Bears face the Giants on Thursday night.  New York’s ranked 22nd in the league in pass defense (269.2 YPG) and given up 12 touchdowns through the air in 2013, only Dallas has given up more (14).  With the match-up this week, he’s a WR2.  Going forward, he’s should be considered no less than a solid WR3 and has the upside to be a top ten fantasy wide out.

IDP- Nick Perry, LB GBP

Perry easily had his best game of the year, if not his career, against the Lions this week. He recorded his first two sacks of the year while totaling five solo tackles. Right now the Packers are awaiting word on the extent of Clay Matthews thumb injury and whether or not he will need season ending surgery. If he does, Perry will become the main pass rusher in Dom Capers’ defense. He’s nowhere near the player Matthews is but could approach eight to nine sacks on the season for people in big play leagues.

NFC West

Zac Stacy, RB STL

Stacy was an early favorite of mine in our team by team sleeper series and he finally got his shot on Sunday. He looks quick and was able to find his way through the holes, something Daryl Richardson hasn’t been able to do this far. Stacy’s 14 rushes for 78 yards came out to 5.8 yards per rush, well above Richardson’s disappoint 2.9 yards per rush. If Stacy can keep the momentum going he could be in store for a lot more carries and might finally bring some value to the Rams backfield.

IDP- Daryl Washington, LB ARI

He’s baaack!!! When coach Arians said he wouldn’t be eased back into the lineup and Washington had some time to make up for, my God, he wasn’t kidding. Washington flat out abused the Panthers in his first game back from suspension. He had eight solo tackles, one assist, two sacks, three tackles for a loss, and a 41-yard interception return. The questions surrounding Washington’s fit outside of a Ray Horton defense have been answered. He’s cemented into LB1 status.

eric olinger
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