Diamonds in the Rough: Quarterback and Tight End

Everybody knows about the big-name players like Calvin Johnson and AJ Green. Playing dynasty is about accumulating as many top-tier difference makers as possible. However, if you play with competent leaguemates, getting a steal on one of these players will be difficult, if not downright impossible. Not only are players like Johnson, Green, Julio Jones, or Adrian Peterson highly coveted, but they always have been. What can really swing a league is when you acquire a difference maker for next to nothing. The Arian Fosters and Victor Cruzes of the world give you a multitude of points for little investment. Although they came out of nowhere to the majority of fantasy footballers (hence why they are so valuable), there were signs of breaking out. Foster was highly regarded at Tennessee before a bad senior season, and he then did very well in training camp. Cruz dominated at a small school, then caught three touchdowns in a single preseason game. He didn’t break out until next season, but the signs were there. Here are some players you might want to keep an eye on, as well as a quick synopsis of my thought process with each position. This week we cover quarterbacks and tight ends, next will be running backs and wide receivers.

QUARTERBACKS

Rather than burn a roster spot on a bad starter like a Brandon Weeden or Christian Ponder as my QB3, I prefer to use that spot on an NFL backup quarterback. I have had some misses over the years, such as Josh Johnson. However, it has also landed me players like Colin Kaepernick during his rookie year. This past summer, I was advocating for Terrelle Pryor. Before his concussion, he was doing quite well. Both of these examples play into another belief I hold: as a quarterback, it is MUCH easier to be fantasy-relevant if you can score points on the ground. The player doesn’t have to be Michael Vick, but being able to score a few rushing points like Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck helps prevent bad days. Unless you are an elite-level passer like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, it is hard to put up a ton of points. Sam Bradford or Andy Dalton would be examples of this point. Looking at current NFL rosters, there are four backups that intrigue me: Ryan Mallett, Brock Osweiler, Nick Foles, and Kirk Cousins.

Unfortunately, none of the four players I mentioned really add value with their legs, so we’ll have to analyze their situations. Cousins probably comes in last of four. He’s done well when he starts, but there is a zero percent chance he starts over Robert Griffin III. He is not a free agent until after the 2015 season, which is a long time to hold. There is the possibility of trade, but since he provides such a cheap insurance policy for the Redskins, that is unlikely.

Right now, Peyton Manning is playing out of his mind. There is a chance if he wins the Super Bowl, he might hang them up at age 37. However, he is performing at such a high level I doubt that will happen. The situation is undoubtedly plush, with a top five receiver in the NFL in Demaryius Thomas, another good outside receiver in Eric Decker, one of the best slot options in the game in Wes Welker, and an athletic tight end in Julius Thomas. However, like Cousins, Osweiler is signed through the 2015 season, which is a long time for payoff.

Ryan Mallett has an advantage over Osweiler and Cousins in that he is only signed through the 2014 season. Additionally, he has been the subject of many trade rumors (Cleveland looks like a tasty spot). In both cases, he has a higher immediacy. We are able to determine his value sooner. We can then either profit or take our losses and move on.

The most valuable backup in the game right now, in my opinion, is Nick Foles. The Philadelphia Eagles set the league on fire in their first game of the season on MNF, but it seems like that was more a product of the Redskins’ atrocious D than anything else. With each passing game, Vick’s PPO drops. Chip Kelly’s system gets receivers open and in space, but Vick has missed some easy throws. Additionally, with the amount of times he has run, an injury seems inevitable. Enter Foles. A quarterback does not necessarily need to be mobile to run Kelly’s offense. Every play, he can hand off to the running back, throw a bubble screen, or look down the field and throw a pass. He does not need to run. Foles, a better pure quarterback than Vick, would be able to take advantage of the crazy tempo and wide-open wide receivers. It is likely we see Foles before the end of this season, which definitely helps his current value. Although I have ranked these players, any one of them is a good add. Whichever one is on waivers or comes the cheapest would be the one I recommend.

DEEPER QUARTERBACK DIAMONDS

Although each of the aforementioned players is owned in less than 35% of MFL leagues, I know they might be owned in deeper or superflex leagues already. In that case, we delve a bit deeper. I was a fan of Brian Hoyer (NE homer, born and raised), but that ship has sailed. Matt McGloin of the Raiders is a potential option. As a runner, Pryor might be hurt (he’s already missed at least one week with his concussion). After this past week’s showing, Oakland doesn’t seem to believe in Matt Flynn. McGloin might get a shot if Pryor goes down again. TJ Yates is another option. The Texans are a playoff team, but it becomes clearer with each passing week that Matt Schaub cannot consistently deliver. If Schaub gets hurt like he did two years ago, it’s Yates’ job. For a rookie thrown into the fire two years ago, Yates did an admirable job. The situation is ideal as well. Andre Johnson is a stud wide receiver and DeAndre Hopkins is a young up-and-comer. He has two backs that are dual threats. Owen Daniels is old reliable at tight end, and Garrett Graham provides some upside there as well.

TIGHT END

For a tight end to be a difference-maker, I believe one of two things is necessary: a great quarterback tossing him the ball or a great offensive system for tight ends. Look at the best tight ends over the past few years: Jimmy Graham has Drew Brees as his quarterback. Rob Gronkowski has Brady. Jordan Cameron does not have an elite quarterback, but he is in a great system for tight ends (the Chudzinksi one) on a team that needs to throw the ball more than 35 times per game. Take Vernon Davis as an example. One of the highest drafted TEs ever, he is a physical freak of a nature. However, he has spent much of his career as a lackluster fantasy option. It was only when paired with a good quarterback in Kaepernick that he has been a good starter again. When looking at these tight ends, there is another common theme – many played basketball. Graham and Cameron did. Julius Thomas, another fine option with a great quarterback, did. Looking back, both Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez played basketball.

Knowing what we know about system and athletic talent, I believe the best dirt-cheap option in dynasty right now is Luke Willson of the Seattle Seahawks. Willson was a three sport athlete (in addition to football and basketball, he also played baseball at a high level). Despite a couple of injury-plagued years at Rice University, the Seahawks (one of the best drafting teams in the past couple of years) thought highly enough of him to take him in round five. This was after his very impressive combine performance, where he performed more like a wide receiver than a tight end. We’ve established he’s a great athlete, but he needs another component to have great upside – Russell Wilson is that component. Wilson looks like he will be one of the next stars at the position. Although the Seahawks are rather run-heavy right now, it is only natural that as Wilson continues to develop, they will continue to open up the playbook and passbook. Zach Miller, the incumbent starter, could be cut before the 2014 season due to a sizable roster bonus if Willson develops. If not, he will almost certainly be cut before the 2015 season, as his roster bonus increases even further. Willson could be a third year tight end breakout, like Cameron this year. So far this season, he hasn’t been used much. However, in the game against Jacksonville he had  six targets and produced five catches for 76 yards – that game hints at his potential upside. If he is on you waiver wire, snap him up if you’re in a deep league.

Stay tuned for running backs and wide receivers!

Who are your diamonds in the rough at quarterback or tight end?