The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. In my 14-team, non-PPR league I have Ahmad Bradshaw who I am looking to sell high on. I can trade him for Rueben Randle straight up with my starting lineup still having Gio Bernard and Marshawn Lynch at running back. Should I make this trade? – Bob in FL
Coming off yet another foot surgery, free agent Ahmad Bradshaw’s off-season market was slow to develop. When he signed with the Colts, however, it appeared the wait was worthwhile – Indy had a glaring hole at the running back position with only pedestrian sophomore Vick Ballard ahead of him on the depth chart. Of course, in just a short period of time his future prospects turned upside down and back again.
Ballard was lost for the year to a torn ACL, and Bradshaw seemed poised to put his stamp on the backfield. As we all know now, the Colts’ front office then wasted little time in trading for Browns’ 2012 first round pick and presumed workhorse Trent Richardson. While Bradshaw stole the show with a stellar week three performance against a stout San Francisco defense, it was largely assumed Richardson would begin to shoulder the load sooner rather than later.
Conjecture soon became reality as Bradshaw was ruled out of a week four tilt against Jacksonville with a neck ailment, and Richardson toted the rock 20 times. The efficiency wasn’t there for the former Clevelander, but he nevertheless showed the ability to carry the load. Moving forward, the job now seemingly belongs to T-Rich.
So given all that, if you can still manage to turn Bradshaw into a young prospect like the Giants’ Rueben Randle, that’s the type of “shock and awe” that rivals the Richardson deal. Randle is integrating himself well into the New York offense, and should the G-Men part ways with fellow pass catcher Hakeem Nicks after this season, he could thrive moving forward. Make it happen!
2. What do you think of this trade in a 10-team, non-PPR league: my Michael Vick and Mark Ingram for his Jared Cook and Jeremy Maclin. Also, what do you think of Ingram, Cook and Maclin long term? – Jared in PA
In order to properly answer your trade query, I’ll begin with the latter part of your question. As the Saints’ Mark Ingram, the Rams’ Jared Cook and the Eagles’ Jeremy Maclin are all relatively young players, it’s important to assess their long-term fantasy viability before considering any type of transaction. Let’s start with Ingram.
Thus far in his short career the former first round pick has been nothing more than a colossal bust. He averages a mere 3.8 yards per carry, and has also displayed a total ineptitude in the passing game. Coupling that with his sparse usage, and it’s been a perfect storm of disappointment for owners who used a high rookie pick on the former Crimson Tide ball carrier.
Digging deeper, his career average of 0.63 PPR points per touch (PPT) is a staggeringly low number, and an unsustainable 30.7% of his career fantasy points have come from touchdowns. When compared to the proficiency of backfield mates Darren Sproles (1.63 PPT as a Saint) and Pierre Thomas (1.03 PPT for his career), Ingram appears to be running in mud. With both Sproles and Thomas signed through 2014, and impressive rookie Khiry Robinson showing well so far this year, Ingram is a man without a country. He’s unlikely to ever carve out a significant role in New Orleans, and it’s doubtful he’ll ever live up to his draft status, both in fantasy and real life.
Getting to another former first round selection, and potential dud in his own right, Maclin’s outlook isn’t much rosier. During his four (healthy) years in the league he still has yet to break 1,000 receiving yards, and is currently sitting on a career high of 70 receptions despite a pedestrian 13.4 yards per catch. Coming off a torn ACL he’ll more than likely be playing on a one-year contract in 2014, as he needs to rehab his flagging value. As such, I have a tough time trusting him as anything more than a potential WR3, and don’t view him as a significant piece in trade negotiations.
Conversely, Jared Cook’s value is on the upswing. After being grossly misused during his time as a Tennessee Titan, Cook is currently averaging 7.8 targets per game as a St. Louis Ram, and he’s already 37.8% of the way to his career high of 82 targets in 2011. To truly flourish he’ll need better play from quarterback Sam Bradford, but Cook has the looks of a perennial TE1.
Because of this I’d accept the trade. Michael Vick is the biggest name in the deal, and he’s been playing out of his mind thus far in 2013 – but he’s nevertheless a 33-year-old injury-prone signal caller, and competent quarterback play is easier to find in 10-team leagues. Receiving Cook, and to a much lesser extent Maclin, more than makes up for what you’d be losing in Vick, and Ingram is a non-factor to me. I like the deal for you.
3. I’m looking to trade CJ Spiller in my 12-team, non-PPR league. I have Arian Foster, Frank Gore and Le’Veon Bell as my other running backs, and we only start two each week. With Spiller’s recent struggles I don’t see him being anything but a bye week fill-in. I’m looking at getting some receivers as that’s a weak point on my team and considering a trade sending Spiller and Charles Clay for Josh Gordon and Michael Crabtree. Thoughts? – Ray in NJ
I think you’re being a little hasty in your dismissal of the Bills’ CJ Spiller. No, he hasn’t yet lived up to expectations this year as the perceived centerpiece of a run-heavy offense under new head coach Doug Marrone. With that said, he’s previously shown the ability to thrive as one of the most efficient running backs in the league, and he’s still only 26 years old. I think you need to stay the course instead of selling low.
Moreover, I can’t say I agree with your evaluation of the state of your ball carrying corps. Arian Foster still carries name recognition, but I’m not convinced of his resurgence just yet. His “breakout” game against the Seahawks, an admittedly tough defense, was once again predicated on – you guessed it – volume, volume and more volume. Ben Tate, despite fewer touches, has been the more explosive and impressive Texans runner, and I still believe he’s primed to cut into Foster’s workload even more as the season drags on.
Similarly, the 49ers’ Frank Gore has benefited from one big game, as 51.9% of his yearly rushing total came in a week four blowout victory over St. Louis. He’s averaging only 15 carries per contest, and has essentially been phased out of the passing game. At age 30 he’s not getting any younger, it’s tough to view him with anything other than a short-term approach in mind.
That leaves us with Steelers rookie Le’Veon Bell. Many view his performance against the Minnesota Vikings as a harbinger of things to come, but Bell benefited from two touchdowns and mostly plodded his way to 3.6 yards per carry on the day. The volume will likely be there, but it’s far too early in the game to declare him as a surefire starter in your lineup.
Because of this, I think you should hang onto Spiller. I really like Josh Gordon, but Spiller remains your most talented back and the best player in the deal, and you don’t typically want to trade low on a stud player, especially at a shallow position. If you really want to improve your receivers, I’d attempt to part with either Gore or Foster instead, and target some veteran help in the form of players such as Andre Johnson or Vincent Jackson.
4. In my 12-team, 2QB league I have both Jimmy Graham and Jordan Cameron. I was recently offered Geno Smith for Cameron, and I only have Tony Romo and Sam Bradford as my quarterbacks. Should I do this? I could also give Cameron and a second rounder next year for a top-five first round pick. – Chris in IL
What sounds laughable at first glance is actually more than reasonable based upon your league’s structure. Given the fact that on any given week 24 signal callers need to be thrust into starting lineups, players like Jets’ rookie Geno Smith see their relative values soar. However, even with that, I still don’t think I’d make the deal.
Smith has shown flashes of brilliance, including game-winning drives against both Buffalo and Tampa Bay. He’s done this despite playing with arguably the league’s worst collection of skill players, “highlighted” by receiver Stephen Hill, tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. and running back Bilal Powell. Smith has also shown the ability to hang tough in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, while also possessing above average mobility if everything around him collapses.
Unfortunately, he’s also been the type of turnover machine that would make even Mark Sanchez blush. Through four weeks of play Smith is on pace for an unfathomable 32 interceptions and 12 fumbles, which is unacceptable no matter how bad his supporting cast is. Though I doubt he’s in any danger of losing his job, Smith simply needs to improve his ball security in order to have any kind of future success.
Conversely, the Browns’ Jordan Cameron has been a revelation, currently standing as the overall TE2 behind only Jimmy Graham. Through four games he’s already shattered his career highs in every relevant statistical category, and appears poised to function, along with receiver Josh Gordon, as one of Cleveland’s top threats for years to come. He should command a higher return than just Smith, even despite the two-quarterback format.
As such I’d modify the deal to include an additional piece – maybe something like Cameron and a 2014 second round pick for Smith and a 2014 first rounder. You’ll still receive the upgrade at quarterback you need, given Tony Romo’s age and Bradford’s general mediocrity, but you’d also be getting a proper return on Cameron’s production and current hype. With Graham already in the fold, and locked and loaded as dynasty’s overall TE1, you’ll be able to trade depth at one position for potential starting-level output at a more important one.
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