Dynasty Mythbusters: Week Four
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. Some prime examples of this from week one are how people were talking about the prospects of players like David Wilson and Julius Thomas after just one game.
If you look back at past years one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite tv shows, it is just too bad that I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them.
I’ll be focusing largely on players that are likely on the waiver wire in most leagues or that are the end of bench players that you can target for cheap. It wouldn’t do me any good to tell you to go out and pick up Kenbrell Thompkins since he should have been on someone’s roster months ago even though lots of websites will be championing him as a week five waiver wire addition.
This week I am going to take a look at a pair of veteran quarterbacks that have spent time on multiple teams over the last few years before managing to lead their new teams to victory this past weekend, something that the starters before them had failed to do. Both quarterbacks look to keep the starting role for their “injured” teammates just because they are more effective. The question is if we need to keep an eye on them in fantasy leagues. Neither of these guys will be your fantasy starter in a regular 12 team league. This is a deeper look for those of you in large leagues, two quarterback leagues, or superflex leagues.
Matt Cassel, QB MIN
Week Four Statline: 16 completions on 25 attempts for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns.
As soon as Christian Ponder popped up on the early week injury report with a rib injury, I had a feeling it was a way for the Vikings to see what they had in Matt Cassel. If Cassel flopped, Ponder’s ribs would be better by week 6 when the Vikings come out of their bye. If Cassel did well, Ponder’s rib injury would linger. It is funny how that happens. In this case it was the latter, but what can we expect going forward?
The Good: Prior to 2008, none of us had heard of Matt Cassel. Then Tom Brady was injured and Cassel led the Patriots to an 11-5 season and a playoff berth, making Cassel one of the more sought after free agent quarterbacks in recent memory. During that season he showed that in the right system he can be productive. His weekly average during 2008 was roughly 20 completions on 32 attempts for 231 yards along with 1.3 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions. That is pretty close to what he had for the Vikings on Sunday with Sunday’s performance actually surpassing it a little bit. With the all-time talent of Adrian Peterson behind him, Cassel has the ability to take advantage of defenses keying in on the run and make them pay, much like he did to the Steelers on Sunday.
The Bad: Cassel isn’t a franchise quarterback. There’s no other way to say it. He is simply the next in a long line of stop gap quarterbacks for the Vikings. Throw in the fact that Head Coach Leslie Frazier is still claiming Ponder is the starter (though I’m sure the rib issue will linger for a few more weeks) and it becomes clear that Cassel is not a long term asset in fantasy leagues either. He also isn’t talented enough to put a team on his back and lead them to victory.
The Ugly Truth: While Cassel isn’t a franchise quarterback and he isn’t the long term answer for the Vikings, he is a capable quarterback and has the potential to be a stop gap for your fantasy team as well. If you have been counting on one of the rookie quarterbacks or a struggling quarterback, you could definitely do a lot worse than Cassel for a bye week fill-in. I wouldn’t be surprised if he keeps the starting job for the rest of this year just because Ponder is absolutely terrible. I would expect Sunday’s statline to be right about par for the course on Cassel. He’ll turn in the occasional game under 200 yards passing (but not multiple under 100 yards like Ponder) and might blow up over 300 yards passing once or twice this year, but he’ll normally be right in the 225-250 range with 1-2 touchdowns and the occasional turnover. The ceiling isn’t very high on him largely because the Vikings are a run first team and Cassel’s attempts will likely be limited, but he’s a safe option for those that have holes to fill on your team.
Brian Hoyer, QB CLE
Week Four Statline: 25 completions on 38 attempts for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns.
This offseason there were many that picked the Browns to be one of the sleeper offenses of the year lead by Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon, Greg Little, and Jordan Cameron. All five were expected to take a step forward and be on the fantasy radar. After losing the first two games of the season Richardson was traded, Little was demoted, and Weeden was benched/injured. Cue the franchise savior… fifth year quarterback Brian Hoyer? After leading the lowly Browns to two straight wins and getting them back to .500 with a depleted roster, the question is how long he can keep it up? Unfortunately, his injury last night may change everything.
The Good: There are several items to like when it comes to Hoyer. For starters, the current administration of the Browns has no connection to Weeden and has already shown that it has no qualms about discarding the high draft picks of the prior leadership. The current group will go with whoever is winning, which Hoyer already has a two win lead over Weeden. Another big item to like about Hoyer is that he has some very skilled pass catching options in Gordon and Cameron that can make plays for their quarterback. He is also on a team that will need to pass early and often if they plan on winning much, largely because their running game is marginal at best. Did he show enough in his short audition to be considered as a long-term answer?
The Bad: While Hoyer does have above average arm strength and arm talent, he isn’t the best when it comes to making decisions. He has a tendency to lock onto one target on a play and either force the ball to them or will immediately check it down instead of going through his full progression. Of course with the Browns he just needs to look deep to Gordon and if he isn’t open just check down to Cameron because there aren’t many other options.
The Ugly Truth: If Hoyer can work on his decision making and make it through his progressions a little bit faster, he could actually be an average NFL starter on par with guys like Andy Dalton. So far he hasn’t managed to put it all together though, which is clear by the fact that this is his third team in three years. Quarterbacks that look promising just don’t do that. Already having three victories just might put the Browns out of the Teddy Bridgewater sweepstakes. If they win even two or three more under, which is likely, he just might get another year or two as the starter while the Browns rebuild. With the weapons at his disposal, Hoyer could be a high risk, high reward play in deeper leagues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few 300+ yard games with 3+ touchdowns, but there will also be a few 150 yard games with 3 interceptions. If you need have a spot on IR (if he has truly torn his ACL), you could do worse.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
