Dynasty Stock Market: Running Backs

Ryan McDowell Posted On October 4, 2013

After looking tier by tier at the quarterback and tight end positions in the past weeks, followed by last week’s look at wide receivers who are gaining and losing value, it’s now the running backs turn. Last week, I mentioned the depth of the wide receiver position, but it seems just the opposite is true of running backs. There seem to be fewer and fewer reliable fantasy running backs. This is partially due to the popularity of the running back by committee approach employed by the majority of teams. Another reason is the increased focus of the passing game in today’s NFL. With a bit of uncertainty at the running back position, let’s take a look at a few backs that are gaining and losing value and the moves you should be making.

Risers:

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

Although dynasty owners are annually affected by the rookie hype of many different players, there is always a bit of uneasiness about gauging the value of these incoming players in relation to veterans. Bengals’ rookie running back Giovani Bernard landed in a plum situation as the expected backup to low upside veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis. So, it should not be a surprise that Bernard has excelled through the season’s first quarter of games. Despite limited snaps in the season’s opener, Bernard still ranks as RB14 in PPR leagues. With Bernard gaining more and more touches and a larger role in the Bengals’ offense, Bernard is a near lock to score among the top twelve running backs this season.

As with any young running back, just a few games to show dynasty owners his upside is all it takes for that player to make a swift move up the rankings. Bernard is now being valued among the top ten running backs and with several veteran running backs faltering, it’s easy to see why. Bernard’s statistics are not overwhelming yet. He’s averaging only averaging sixty-seven yards a game and has three scores on the season, but his twelve receptions give him a nice bump in PPR leagues.

Joique Bell, RB DET

One of the biggest surprises of the young season is the play of veteran running back Joique Bell. Bell bounced around the league appearing in games for both the Indianapolis Colts and the Philadelphia Eagles in 2010 before landing with the Saints. He never saw the field in New Orleans and in 2012 signed with the Lions. He was impressive in his limited opportunity last season, playing behind Mikel Leshoure and his outlook was not good after the Lions signed Reggie Bush to be their starter. That did not slow down Bell though, who beat out Leshoure for the top reserve spot and has demanded touches with his impressive play through four games.

Not only did Bell earn respect and playing time from the Lions, but that play led to increased attention from fantasy owners. Though Bell was pegged by many as a sleeper, I’m not sure anyone foresaw this. Through four games, including one as the starter when Bush was injured, Bell is RB8 in PPR leagues and is averaging nearly eighty-five total yards. Interestingly, Bell actually has more receiving yards than rushing yards at this point in the season. Bell’s age of twenty-seven should quell the hype in dynasty leagues just a bit, but he obviously does not have much wear and tear on his legs with only 123 career carries and another seventy receptions.

Andre Ellington, RB ARZ

During the pre-season, it looked as if the rookie season of Cardinals running back Andre Ellington could be a lost one. Not only was he behind veteran starter Rashard Mendenhall, but he was also being outplayed by fellow rookie Stepfan Taylor. That all changed once the season began. Though Ellington barely played in the season opener, logging one reception and no carries, he has earned a role in the offense. As the weeks have gone on, Ellington’s role in the offense has grown, especially in the receiving game. Ellington is averaging over fifty yards a game over the past three weeks and is eating into Mendenhall’s touches. I expect that trend to continue and Ellington is a relatively cheap option who can still be found on some waiver wires of shallow leagues.

Fallers:

David Wilson, RB NYG

The off-season hype train on second year running back David Wilson was clearly out of control. Wilson was routinely ranked among the top ten running backs and was often being drafted in the second round of startup drafts despite only seventy-one carries as a rookie last season. I will be the first to admit that I bought in to the exciting playmaking ability of Wilson, and still do to some degree. The early season fumbling is obviously a concern, but not all of the lack of production can be placed on Wilson’s shoulders. After all, the entire Giants team is struggling and their offensive line is in shambles.

The things we liked about Wilson are still there. He’s still fast, young and has the ability to make impactful plays. He also has put the ball on the ground and is part of a struggling offense. It’s difficult to make the case for Wilson for this season, but when thinking long-term, which all dynasty owners should be doing, Wilson still possess exciting potential. At his age and considering he’s really all the Giants have in the running game, Wilson should be a trade target of savvy dynasty owners, especially that his price is now likely down to where it should have been initially.

Stevan Ridley, RB NE

Another running back that has struggled in the early portion of the 2013 season is Patriots Stevan Ridley. Like Wilson, Ridley had two fumbles in the season’s opening week and has paid the price ever since. Ridley was benched in week one after the second fumble and his counterpart, Shane Vereen entered the game and excelled. It looked like he had a stranglehold on the starting job. Days later, we learned of an injury to Vereen that continues to sideline him and most assumed Ridley’s job was safe. We should all know better though when attempting to predict how head coach Bill Belichick will manage his team. In the three games since Vereen was injured, the Patriots have used a committee approach and Ridley has only touched the ball fifty-one times in those three games. While that number might sound high, it is not nearly enough to satisfy Ridley owners who were counting on him as a starter. Meanwhile, Branden Bolden and LeGarrette Blount have combined for forty-two touches over those same three weeks. With Vereen out several more weeks, Ridley has been unable to take advantage of this opportunity to distance himself and prove he is a reliable weekly option, both for the Patriots and fantasy owners.

Mark Ingram, RB NO

Maybe this one shouldn’t surprise me, but for yet another season, I thought this was the year that Saints’ running back Mark Ingram finally turned things around and became a fantasy starter. Through four games, of which Ingram has only appeared in two, it is painfully evident that I, and many other dynasty owners, were wrong again. With the departure of Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles playing the role of a glorified slot receiver, it seemed that only veteran Pierre Thomas stood between Ingram and a 1,000 yards rushing season. We all know the Saints offense puts up points and the yardage to go with them and while it will remain a pass heavy offense as long as quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton are in town, there should be room for a running back to be successful as well. Just not Ingram.

Ingram has missed the past two weeks due to a toe injury, but in the season’s first two weeks, Ingram only totaled thirty-one rushing yards. Ingram is still relatively young, but he will not be a free agent until the 2015. It is now the opinion of many that Ingram needs a change of scenery to have a chance to be successful. With his current production, or lack thereof, it will be difficult to devote a roster spot to Ingram over the next two seasons.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.