Mining for Paydirt: Week Five

Chad Scott

bess

Mining for Paydirt is a deep-sleeper article geared toward your average to larger sized leagues.  The players we focus on here are owned in less than 35% of myfantasyleague.com leagues – they are your blue collar workers.  I’m not going to give you names like Roy Helu or Joique Bell – those aren’t the droids I’m looking for.  I want the players who are on the radar of only the realest of degenerates.  Players you wouldn’t think of owning in a million and one years.  These will strictly be for injury and bye week fill-ins based on match-ups and situation.  Some may stick, some won’t.  It’s the nature of the beast and I’ll be thrilled to get one or two correct a week.

I was dug in – like a batter in a zone.  Predicting potential breakout players based on an uncomplicated formula seemed too easy anymore.  Then, Week Four happened.

As I’ve mentioned before, these articles are meant to be used as bye week replacements or for teams riddled with injuries.  Last week was the first of the byes and I failed miserably on my prognostications.  Not even close on any, really.

I felt like I had this article on lock down.  Hitting on only one player seemed trivial – I wanted/needed to be correct on two or all three.  Every.  Week.  I was getting too big for my britches and last week filled my belly with humble pie.  Life goes on and so shall this article.  This week, we will do better so the self-loathing can end… at least for a week.

This is how the Week Four calls went <sigh>:

Marcel Reece – one reception, -2 yards (0.8 points), RB83

Dwayne Harris – one reception, 13 yards (2.3 points), WR85

Kellen Winslow – six receptions, 73 yards (13.3 points), TE10

Winslow could be a decent play again this week as the Jets will be without Santonio Holmes (hamstring) and Stephen Hill (concussion) in their Monday night game against the Atlanta Falcons.  Double down on him if you don’t have better options.

Week Five’s byes include: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Washington and Pittsburgh.

QB: Mike Glennon, Matt Cassel, Robert Griffin III and Ben Roethlisberger

RB: Doug Martin, Adrian Peterson, Alfred Morris/Roy Helu and Le’Veon Bell

WR: Vincent Jackson/Mike Williams, Greg Jennings/Jerome Simpson/Cordarrelle Patterson, Pierre Garcon/Leonard Hankerson and Antonio Brown/Emmanuel Sanders

TE: Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed/Fred Davis and Heath Miller

Make sure to get those players out of your lineups and consider one of the three below.

Dallas Clark, TE BAL @ MIA (30% owned)

The Dolphins have allowed the most points to the tight end position and Jimmy Graham is a big reason why.  He caught four balls for 100 yards and two touchdowns.

But he’s not the only tight end doing damage against this defense.

Week

Player

Rec

Yards

TD

Points

Rank

1

Jordan Cameron

5

55

2

22.5

TE2

2

Coby Fleener

4

69

1

16.9

TE7

3

Tony Gonzalez

4

24

0

6.4

TE24

4

Jimmy Graham

4

100

2

26

TE3

It should be noted in Week Three, Levine Toilolo caught a touchdown, making that six touchdowns given up to tight ends alone in just four games.

Clark is no spring chicken anymore, but he doesn’t need to be when his only other competition is Ed Dickson.  He and Dickson are splitting reps, but it’s Clark running the lion’s share of the routes.  Per PFF, of his 166 total snaps, Clark has run 134 routes compared to Dickson’s 154 snaps, running routes just 55 times.  Clark ranked #8 in total targets with 29 (Graham #1 with 41).  The problem isn’t opportunity; he’s just not doing much when given the chance.

Clark has two dropped passes and has yet to score a touchdown this season.  His points per opportunity (PPO) is sitting at 0.25, but I expect that number to shoot up after this week’s matchup.

The Ravens should try and get the run game back on track as long as Ray Rice is close to full health.  This offense is dead in the water if they expect Joe Flacco to win a game by himself.  Once the run game gets some traction, it will open up the pass game for bigger plays.  Clark is second to only Torrey Smith in targets on the team and that won’t change this weekend.  Grab him if you need him.  With no world beaters on bye this weekend, he’s a guy I’d start over names like Owen Daniels, Jared Cook or Charles Clay.

Paydirt Prediction: five receptions, 65 yards and one touchdown

Davone Bess, WR CLE vs BUF (19% owned)

Brian Hoyer was named the starting quarterback in week three.  Since then, Bess has out-targeted Greg Little 15-9.  Last week, Little was only targeted once.  I think we’re in store for a nice PPR game from Mr. Bess.

The new aerial assault the Browns have deployed has made Jordan Cameron very dude in fantasy circles and Josh Gordon a superstar in waiting.  Little has yet to make good on his rookie season hype, while Bess has come in and is quietly having a decent PPR season.  He’s currently outscoring names like Hakeem Nicks, Sydney Rice and Chris Givens, yet is only owned in 1/5 of leagues.

That owned rate might change after this week as the Browns get to face the Bills in their home stadium.  The Bills have given up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, averaging 15 receptions, 234 yards and 1.8 touchdowns a game (48.9 points per game).

Hoyer and the Norval/Chudzinski offense have averaged nearly 50 pass attempts per game since the quarterback change and departure of their “franchise” running back.  With names like Willis McGahee, Bobby Rainey and Chris Ogbonnaya in the backfield, I don’t expect that number to decrease that much, if at all.

Bess will see plenty of targets on Thursday night and while I don’t normally condone starting fringe players on Thursday nights, Bess has a good chance of getting you out to an early lead.

Paydirt Prediction: seven receptions, 75 yards and one touchdown

Brice Butler, WR OAK vs SD (4% owned)

Darren McFadden’s annual injury has hit (although, it’s not considered serious) and Marcel Reece is out with a knee injury.  Terrelle Pryor should be back, sending Matt Flynn back to the bench.

Flynn did nothing to warrant any sort of talk about a quarterback controversy against one of the worst pass defenses in the league last week.  Flynn was 21-32, 246 yards, one touchdown and one interception.  He was also sacked seven times.  Ain’t nobody got time for that…

Butler was developing a nice chemistry with Terrelle prior to the concussion that kept him out last week.  In week three against the Broncos, the seventh round draft pick caught three passes for 54 yards, but did have one drop.  More importantly, he’s starting to receive enough playing time to warrant a flyer if you so choose.  Last week, Butler played on 40 of the offense’s 66 snaps (61%).  He’s being used mostly in the slot – 75% of his pass routes have come from the slot.  If he can find some space, he’ll put that 4.36 speed to good use.

The Chargers have been putting up points (27 PPG) and the Raiders aren’t stopping anyone.  On the flip side, the San Diego defense is giving up the fourth most points to opposing wide receivers – nearly 46 PPG.  Nothing’s gonna give here and we should see plenty of fantasy goodies in this very late matchup (kickoff is at 8:45 PM PST).

As I mentioned above, the Raiders will most likely be without both McFadden and Reece, leaving Rashad Jennings as the last man standing.  We’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end well.

Whether it’s Pryor using his legs or his arm against the Chargers, the Raiders will find success at home.  I’m calling my shot with this one and have picked him up in a few leagues where I’m in dire need of a WR.

Paydirt Prediction: four receptions, 90 yards and one touchdown