Dynasty Stock Market: Wide Receivers
After looking tier by tier at the quarterback and tight end positions the past two weeks, it’s time to focus on the wide receivers. This year, more than ever before, it has become obvious that the wide receiver position is the deepest position in fantasy football. When you consider the strong young prospects that may not be ready to fill a starting fantasy role, but clearly have dynasty value, the depth of the position is even greater.
Due to that depth, grouping wide receivers as I did with quarterbacks and tight ends would be a never ending and fruitless task. Instead, as we are nearly one-quarter of the way through the fantasy regular season, let’s take a look at some wideouts that are gaining and losing dynasty value. In many cases, this has to do with age. Younger players become popular dynasty targets while aging veterans lose their value in short order. While that may be the most common cause for changes in value, it is certainly not the exclusive cause. Here are some players on the rise, and fall.
Risers:
Josh Gordon, WR CLE
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon has seen his dynasty value fluctuate as much as any other player during the off-season. After a solid, yet unspectacular rookie season in which he posted over 800 receiving yards and five touchdowns, the hype began to grow with Gordon. In my opinion, this was due to two main reasons. First, at the conclusion of his rookie year in 2012, Gordon was still only twenty-one years old. His athletic ability combined with that young age is enough to make dynasty owners’ mouths water. Also, based on how the 2012 season played out, Gordon was viewed as the favorite to be the Browns’ top receiver. These factors caused Gordon’s value to slowly increase. When the Browns hired offensive minded coaches Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner, they hype train picked up speed.
In June, that train nearly derailed as Gordon was hit with the long-rumored suspension, but for only two games. Some dynasty owners panicked, concerned with his off-the-field issues and the long-term affect that could have, but most stayed the course and Gordon’s value actually continued to rise after a brief hiccup.
As the season neared, owners came to the realization that Gordon would be of no use for the first two weeks of the season and the panic returned. Hopefully, you were one of the owners who took advantage of that panic and were able to acquire Gordon, because in week three, Gordon made his 2013 season debut in spectacular fashion. Gordon was targeted nineteen times, catching ten balls for 146 yards and a score.
Of course, Gordon carries risk as one more offense of the league’s substance abuse policy means a year on the sidelines for him, but with that risk comes great upside. Many have compared him to Dez Bryant after his outstanding performance against the Vikings, and we all know how Bryant is being valued in dynasty leagues…it’s impossible to acquire him. If you have the chance to trade for Gordon, do it now and reap the rewards.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
A year ago, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was in the midst of a breakout season for the Clemson Tigers, yet still playing in the shadow of fellow wideout Sammy Watkins. As the college season went forward, Hopkins draft profile grew, eventually leading to him being drafted in the first round by the Houston Texans.
Although the rookie class as a whole was viewed as weaker than normal, there were many players considered to be on the same tier. Because of that, along with some personal preferences, Hopkins went as early as first overall and as late as the early second round in some rookie drafts. Those investing any draft pick in the Texans rookie are feeling great about that choice in the early going.
Hopkins has at least five catches in each of the Texans first three games and stepped up to take the place of Andre Johnson who missed portions of weeks two and three due to injuries. Through three games, Hopkins has eighteen catches for 243 yards and one score. That puts him on a pace for 96 catches for 1,296 yards and five touchdowns.
I mentioned age as a major factor in assessing dynasty value, and in Hopkins’ case, it does play a significant role. Displaying impressive ball skills and factoring in that he is only twenty-one years old, Hopkins should be a target of every dynasty owner. Also, the age of another wide receiver, Texans’ top option Johnson, is playing a role in driving up the value of Hopkins. Johnson is thirty-two years old and has already been dealing with multiple minor injuries early in the season. It’s promising that Hopkins has been able to take over as the top option in the passing game when Johnson has been out of action.
DeSean Jackson, WR PHI
The 2013 season has been a curious case when assessing the dynasty value of wide receiver DeSean Jackson. Following a breakout sophomore season in 2009, Jackson receiving yardage has declined in each of the past three seasons, capped by a 2012 season in which he only played eleven games for the struggling Eagles.
Since the conclusion of the 2012 season though, there have been multiple events which should have resulted in a big increase in Jackson’s dynasty value. First, the team hired former Oregon boss Chip Kelly as their head coach. Immediate speculation was that Kelly’s fast paced offense and propensity to make use of smaller speedy players would greatly benefit Jackson. Despite this as the prevailing opinion, Jackson saw little gain in dynasty value based on trades and startup average draft position.
Next came some bad news for the Eagles, their other starting wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, tore his ACL during training camp and was lost for the season. While that was obviously a big blow to the Eagles’ offense, it meant more targets for Jackson. Again, even with this signal to all dynasty owners to go out and acquire Jackson, most ignored this vital piece of information.
Through three games, Jackson is on pace for career high numbers in receptions and receiving yards. As long as quarterback Michael Vick can stay healthy, there’s little reason to believe Jackson will not keep up numbers to place him among the top twelve receivers this year.
Fallers:
Roddy White, WR ATL
As wide receivers pass the magical age of thirty years, there seems to be an immediate hit to their dynasty value, regardless of past or future production. The Falcons’ Roddy White, a long time top receiving option for the Falcons and fantasy teams, is now thirty-one and dealing with a high ankle sprain that has served as a shock to the system of White owners in dynasty leagues.  Nursing a high ankle sprain, it is clear that White will be back to full strength soon, but it is just as clear that the torch has now been passed to fellow Falcon Julio Jones.
While White has played limited snaps and only has seven catches through three games, Jones has hauled in twenty-seven. Again, White is expected to recover and be back to full strength soon, but his dynasty value may never recover. If you are a contender with a need at wide receiver, acquiring White now while his value is at his lowest could pay off during the fantasy playoffs.
Kenny Britt, WR TEN
Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt has been through a lot in his five year career, much of it he brought upon himself. Britt has a long list of off-the-field infractions, which have clearly affected his play on the field. Britt also had a serious knee injury nearly two years ago which caused him to miss the majority of the 2011 season. While he has played seventeen of the past nineteen games in 2012 and 2013, his play has been sub-par.
Britt managed only 589 receiving yards in 2012, but most blamed the poor play on a mediocre quarterback in Jake Locker and inadequate play calling. Again, the age factor plays a role. Since Britt has displayed some athletic upside and just turned twenty-five years old, many dynasty owners continue to place their hopes in him as a high upside receiver, myself included.
After some positive camp buzz and knowing this was a contract year for the troubled Britt, expectations were as high as ever. Instead, the first three games of the 2013 season have been a disaster. Britt has only forty-three yards on five catches, putting him on pace for career lows in both categories. Britt was even benched as the Titans were attempting a fourth quarter comeback in week three. With the Titans clearly having lost all faith in Britt and his status as a free agent following the season, the trade winds have begun to blow. A trade might be the best thing for Britt and his dynasty value. Even if he is not dealt this year, it is clear Britt will be with a new team in 2014, likely on a short-term contract, giving him a chance to prove his true value, to both NFL teams and dynasty owners.
Vincent Brown, WR SD
As a rookie in 2011, wide receiver Vincent Brown joined the Chargers with high expectations. Although he was somewhat disappointing, that should not be surprising considering Brown was a rookie from a small school.
Entering the 2012 season, expectations were even higher as Brown was counted on to replace another Vincent, Vincent Jackson, who had signed with the Tamp Bay Buccaneers as a free agent. Instead, Brown suffered a broken ankle and though he was expected to return at some point during the season, that never happened and Brown missed the entire season.
Finally, coming into this season, Brown again has been counted on by dynasty owners considering the Chargers have dealt with the loss of wide receiver Danario Alexander on top of other injuries to the wide receiver corps. Even though healthy and listed as one of the Chargers’ starting wide receiver, Brown has continued to disappoint his fantasy owners. Through three games, Brown has just eight receptions for fifty yards. He’s fourth on the team in receptions and has just the fifth most receiving yards.  Brown is being clearly outplayed by players like Eddie Royal and Malcom Floyd.
At only twenty-four years old, Brown has time to turn things around, but based on what we have actually seen on the field, his dynasty value has taken a hit this season.
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