Herding Stats – Week Four

TheFFGhost

romo
There’s a saying: “90% of all statistics are made up”. It’s a funny quote and always gets a smirk from whoever you say it to. In this series we’ll take a look at the other 10% of statistics, those cold hard numbers that make this great game of fantasy football possible. We’ll take a look at what these statistics meant for the game and what they could mean for this week’s game or even the rest of the season. Undoubtedly there will be some statistics I share with you that you’ve heard before, others you’ll be able to share with your friends, enemies or league-mates (none of which are mutually exclusive from one another I might add) and look like the smartest owner around.

Quarterback Focus:  Tony Romo

Last week’s quarterback play didn’t fare all that well with Eli getting absolutely manhandled by a Panthers defense that suddenly had fangs. This week’s pick will hopefully fair much better. In week four, Tony Romo faces the San Diego Chargers in a juicy match-up that he has every opportunity to exploit. Thus far Romo has averaged 257 passing yards per game and has faced one of the toughest defenses this season in the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense is allowing a jaw-dropping 358 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game to quarterbacks! The Chargers even allowed nearly 300 passing yards to Jake Locker, something that is rare and his third best passing performance in the NFL. Romo on average has been able to accumulate two passing touchdowns per game and has yet to hit 300 passing yards in a game this season. He has managed to gain an average of 9.3 yards per pass but what is really juicy about this match-up is the fact that the Chargers are giving up an average of 13.4 yard per reception. If Romo is able to split the difference with a 11.4 yards per reception on 27 completions he would have a 308 yard game, coupled with the aforementioned two passing touchdowns and you’ve got a very solid outing with the potential for an even better performance.

Running Back Focus:  Darren McFadden

If you’ve played fantasy football for any longer than this season the name Darren McFadden conjures visions of so much potential but too much actual pain for your fantasy team. If history is any indicator McFadden will hurt himself at some point this season, it’s just a question of when. That being said you need to ride him until the wheels fall off and this week is shaping up to be a great payday for his remaining owners. McFadden draws the Redskins this week in a matchup that should see him heavily featured. Through three games the Redskins have given up 414 rushing yards to running backs or 138 yards average per game (second worst in the NFL). They’ve also given up 110 receiving yards to opposing running backs which will allow McFadden to be a dual threat on Sunday.  McFadden should expect a huge bump to his yards per carry as the Redskins are giving up 4.8 yards per carry as opposed to DMc’s current 3.9 yards per carry. Teams are keenly aware of this as well, exploiting this weakness on average for 32 rushing attempts per game versus McFadden’s average of 16 rushes per game, a full doubling of his average attempts per game thus far! It’s not hard to see that Darren McFadden’s potential in this game is through the roof!

Wide Receiver Focus:  Pierre Garcon

The Redskins versus Raiders match-up looks like it’s going to be a shootout because both defenses might as well not exist. The Redskins defense has given up the most receiving yards so far this season while the Raiders defense has given up the most receptions. Neither of those statistics is really one any defensive coordinator puts at the top of their resume. The reason I’m going for Garcon over one of the Raiders wide receivers is due to the great intersect of the aforementioned statistic as well as the fact that Garcon is the fourth leading wide receiver in regards to receptions with 23 or on average roughly 8 receptions per game. Meanwhile, the Raiders have given up  highs of eight receptions to Wayne, eight receptions to Cecil Shorts and 10 receptions to Demaryius Thomas which averages to about nine receptions per player which, when factored in with Garcon’s average, places him roughly in the same neighborhood as the previous wide receivers who have exploited this defense. Finally, the Raiders have given up 96 receiving yards to Wayne, 93 yards to Shorts and 94 yards to Thomas so Garcon’s average of 93 yards per game fits almost smack dab right into the average of the other three receivers at 94 yards per game. I love this match-up for Garcon because the Redskins are going to have to pass a lot to keep up and they will likely be able to do so by targeting him. So while Garcon looks to have a game fairly typical of those wide receivers who have come before him, I actually think he stands a much better than average chance of outperforming the projection laid out thus far. Double digit receptions and well over 125 yards are a very distinct possibility in this offensive shootout.

Tight End Focus:  Jimmy Graham

This is a no-brainer in almost any week but several things both statistically and emotionally are lining up for Graham to GO OFF! Firstly, I don’t really need to explain how good Graham is, it goes without saying but just to be thorough let’s review.  Graham is the number one tight end thus far in the 2013 and will likely finish that season that way as well. He is the tight end leader in receptions, receiving yards, yards from scrimmage, yards per touch and tied for first with Jordan Cameron for most touchdowns. Graham is as dominant a force at the tight end position as we’ve ever seen. That being said, most of this examination will focus on how great of a match-up Miami will likely provide for Graham. The Dolphins have given up the second most receptions to tight ends through three weeks and have given up the fifth most receiving yards. Additionally, the Dolphins have given up a receiving touchdown to tight ends in every game thus far this season while Graham has scored at least a touchdown in every game. When you work in the fact that Graham is in a contract year, playing on Monday night in front of a national audience and is at home, you’re likely to see a monster game from him. Not that you would expect anything less.

Defensive Team Focus:  Kansas City Defense

This is another fairly obvious pick but the match-up is just too good to ignore. Thus far Kansas City is the third best defense statistically. A big part of this has been their creation of turnovers with the third most turnovers caused through three games. The Chiefs have also given up the second least amount of points to opponents. On the other side of the coin,the Giants have been the poster boys for offensive dysfunction. Thus far in the season the Giants have given up the third most sacks with 11 while the Chiefs have accumulated a league leading 15 sacks. The Giants have also given up the most interceptions in the league with nine, far outpacing the next closest team who has thrown six. Finally, we all know how woeful the Giants rushing offense has been with only one rushing touchdown, the exact opposite is true for the Kansas City defense who has only given up one rushing touchdown in the same span. It’s shaping up to be another long day for Eli Manning and David Wilson.