The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

nfl: oakland raiders at denver broncos

 

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. In my 12-team league I have Michael Vick as my starter, and seeing as he is always getting hurt every year I thought about adding Nick Foles. However, I am only allowed to carry three quarterbacks and already have Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. Is it worth it to drop either of them in favor of Foles?Jay in NY

When it comes to our backup quarterbacks, I think most owners have two latent desires – to have injury protection for our starters, and also to roster at least one developmental asset.  Unfortunately, given your league’s stringent requirements for the position, the two goals appear to be mutually exclusive.  As such, acquiring Eagles’ backup Nick Foles at the expense of either the Cardinals’ Carson Palmer or the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger is a tough sell.

I like Foles as a prospect, but his current value is completely tied to Michael Vick’s health.  Moreover, were Vick to succumb to injury, there’s no guarantee Foles would be able to replicate coach Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense – even if he could, he certainly has no chance of matching Vick’s running prowess (62.3 rush yards per game so far this year).  Finally, Kelly used the 2013 NFL Draft to potentially bring in “his guy” in fourth round selection Matt Barkley, and it’s uncertain as to who will be lining up under center in Philadelphia in 2014 and beyond.

Perhaps more importantly, you already have a distinct advantage by virtue of having three starting-caliber signal callers.  Just by simple math we can deduce that there will be teams in your league that only have two starting quarterbacks, and even then it’s no certainty that the two they have are even all that good.  You’re already protected for bye weeks, and more importantly injuries, so why mess with a good thing?  If you were to divest yourself of the luxury, I’d aim higher than Foles, or at least expect a moderate bump at another position in return.

2. Is it time to give up on Brian Quick? I have a habit of stashing guys, holding on to them for what feels like forever, then when I’ve finally given up or trade them they go off. I don’t want to lose a future stud, but I could really use the added roster spot.JB in Texas

Selected in the early second round last year, the Rams’ Brian Quick has yet to come anywhere near living up to his lofty draft status.  During the entirety of the 2012 season he was only able to garner a mere 28 targets over 15 games, catching fewer than half of them.  This year hasn’t been any kinder to the now-sophomore, as he’s been on the receiving end of only seven of quarterback Sam Bradford’s 88 passing attempts, “good” for eighth on the team.  Regrettably for Quick, the news gets worse.

St. Louis fields one of the younger collections of offensive skill position players in the league, meaning that it’s not as if Quick’s ascendance into stardom is being suppressed by some kind of veteran presence.  Of the players currently ahead of him in the target pecking order, one is a rookie (receiver Tavon Austin) and three others, like Quick, are also in their second seasons (receiver Chris Givens and running backs Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead).  Tight ends Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks are only 26 and 25 years old respectively, and fellow outside receiver Austin Pettis is only 25 as well.  With these players all presumably improving as well, it’s tough to see Quick gaining a foothold into fantasy relevance without some kind of catastrophic series of injuries.

Given that, I wouldn’t hesitate to cut your losses here.  I’m sure many will disagree and say you’re giving up too soon, but I think you can do better with your roster spots.  If you’re looking for a developmental receiver, I’d try to package Quick with either another player or a draft pick and see if you can land someone like the Jets’ Stephen Hill or the Bills’ Robert Woods.  Believe it or not, you’d arguably be selling high on Quick while also bolstering the tail end of your roster with a player who has at least flashed some kind of tangible skill.

3. Who would you rather have long term at tight end, Jordan Reed or Charles Clay? I own Reed but Clay is on waivers. I have Rob Gronkowski but need a solid replacement in case he gets injured again. We can also use a tight end at the FLEX position if needed.Chris in TN

This is an interesting question, as both the Redskins’ Jordan Reed and the Dolphins’ Charles Clay have already shown more than anticipated so far this year.  For various reasons, each has ascended their respective depth chart sooner than expected, and flashed big time potential.  Let’s start with the case for Reed.

Washington took a chance on the former collegiate quarterback, selecting him in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft.  As an extremely raw rookie, he was expected to learn the ropes behind veteran and nominal starter Fred Davis, in a pseudo-redshirt season.  When he suffered a knee injury and missed the majority of training camp, expectations of any meaningful early season involvement were even further lowered.

Things changed when the Redskins found themselves down 26 points in a week one clash with the Eagles, and the offense needed all hands on deck.  Reed responded by corralling five of his six targets, and he hasn’t yet looked back.  With Davis benched for missing blocking assignments, Reed appears to be in the driver’s seat for meaningful reps both now and for the future.

Clay was similarly buried on the Miami depth chart until starter Dustin Keller hurt his knee in the preseason.  Since then he’s been a man on fire, amassing 19 targets, and converting 14 of them for 203 yards.  Though the season is young, Clay already finds himself as the PPR TE10 through three weeks.

Yet despite Clay’s early season surge, I’d advise you to hang onto Reed, with the main reason being opportunity.  Clay seems likely to have a better 2013 season, but he’ll inevitably find himself behind both Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline in the pecking order.  Miami also drafted the promising Dion Sims this year, and he already appears poised to have an impact in the red zone.  Clay’s week two outburst against the Colts could very well be his best game of the season.

Conversely, the Redskins have a severe talent vacuum behind receiver Pierre Garcon, and someone needs to step up.  Reed has the potential to fill that void, and has already shown promising chemistry with quarterback Robert Griffin III.  Even if Davis returns and plays better, he’s only on a one-year contract, and will probably wind up elsewhere in 2014.  So given Reed’s combination of situation and talent, and despite a recent quad contusion, I think he’s the one to own.

4. In my 10-team, 2QB PPR league I currently have Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski. I have trade offers for both to pick up either a better second quarterback or running back. Who has more upside, an emerging Thomas in a Peyton Manning-led offense, or a proven Gronkowski coming back from injury?Rob in MA

With the exception of DLF soothsayer Steve Wyremski, Broncos’ tight end Julius Thomas was one of the better-kept secrets in fantasy football heading into this year.  After barely playing as a rookie, and then missing the entire 2012 season due to injury, the third year pro remained nothing more than an intriguing athletic prospect stuck behind veterans Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen.  However, due to injury he was thrust into the spotlight, and with all-time great Peyton Manning under center, he’s begun to emerge as a legitimate TE1 option.

Unfortunately, being subject to the whims of “The Sherriff” has its drawbacks.  Consider the following table, which depicts the weekly 2013 fantasy production of Thomas, as well as the wide receiver trio of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker.

Name

Week One

Week Two

Week Three

Average

Demaryius Thomas

33.1

10.2

19.4

20.9

Wes Welker

27.7

12.9

21.4

20.7

Eric Decker

5.2

17.7

27.3

16.7

Julius Thomas

28.0

16.7

12.7

19.1

*Numbers derived from standard PPR WCOFF scoring

As you can glean from the data, Manning is a true master of exploiting the weaknesses of the opposition, regardless of who the beneficiary winds up being.  This has resulted in big weeks for all four players, but provided nothing in the way of continuity.  It also fails to take into account the three-headed monster at running back, as well as the strong likelihood that Manning won’t continue his otherworldly pace (381 yards and four touchdowns per game).

On the other hand, Welker is only signed through 2014, and Decker is potentially a free agent as soon as next season.  Should one (or both) leave town, Thomas would likely see an uptick in production.  So suffice it to say, Thomas’ upside at the tight end position rivals almost every player in the game.

With that said, this is still Rob Gronkowski we’re talking about!  The Patriots’ stud tight end has revolutionized the position, and is literally one of the most efficient touchdown scorers in the history of the game (38 touchdowns in 43 games).  While Thomas has put himself squarely on the TE1 radar, Gronkowski, when healthy, obliterates the competition with a mind boggling career average of 2.60 PPR points per target.

He appears to be a good bet to return soon, and the New England offense sorely needs him.  Tom Brady will undoubtedly pepper him with targets, and as such his production will demand a place in your starting lineup.  The weekly advantage Gronkowski can provide for your team is invaluable, so I’d elect to hang onto him and see what Thomas will fetch on the open market.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

eric hardter