Sunday Six Pack: Week Three

Jarrett Behar

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We’re with you every Sunday to provide the Sunday Six Pack, an article featuring six of the biggest storylines heading into each and every week of the season. Keeping tabs on these events will keep you prepared and informed throughout the season – just don’t drive within six hours of reading this. With that in mind, let’s take a look at this week’s Sunday Six Pack:

Can #1) Bear Up

Through two weeks, Jay Cutler is the QB13 in standard scoring formats, hovering within a point or so with the likes of Colin Kaepernick, Drew Brees, Alex Smith and Andy Dalton.  Marc Trestman’s new Bears offense has focused on getting the ball out of Cutler’s hands quickly, intensely involving Matt Forte (who is on pace for 312 carries, 128 targets and 112 receptions).  This has resulted in Cutler incredibly only taking one sack in the Bears’ first two games against the Bengals’ incredibly talented defensive front and Jared Allen and the Vikings.  While Cutler’s 5:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio does leave something to be desired, he’s topped 20 fantasy points in each of his first two games.  This week at Pittsburgh will be a great test for Cutler’s progress in the new offense.  While I’m certainly not suggesting he will join the ranks of Kaepernick and Brees, if Cutler can perform well against Dick LeBeau and the Steelers defense this weekend, he will separate himself from Smith, Dalton and the other quarterbacks in that tier and could end up as a mid-to-low QB1 for the rest of the reason.

Can #2) Trent is Sent and Off He Went

Leading with the Trent Richardson trade is so last Thursday, so I made the creative decision to bump it down to Can #2.  Here you have a second-year player in a new offensive system on a team flying out west to play a road game against the formidable San Francisco 49ers defense.  If I were Chuck Pagano, I’d probably say I was going to give Richardson as many carries as he could handle (as he did), but the reality of the situation is that pass protection and blitz pickups are going to be a major issue for T-Rich to get comfortable with in such a short time frame.  The Colts’ bread is buttered by #12, so I can’t imagine Richardson getting a ton of passing down work unless the Colts are supremely confident he’s not going to get Andrew Luck killed.  Especially with Ahmad Bradshaw being the elite pass protector he is, I’m not expecting a lot out of Richardson this week.  Now, whether you have a better option on your bench is a whole other question.  Many people (including myself) will probably end up starting him and keeping their fingers crossed for a touchdown.

Can #3) Apocalypse Jacksonville

Let’s see.  Best offensive player likely to miss the game with an ankle injury: check.  No NFL-caliber starting quarterback in sight: check.  Have to deal with the greatest home field advantage in the NFL: check.  Playing against a defense that transformed Colin Kaepernick into a mere mortal: check.  I don’t believe it’s a stretch to say the highest scoring fantasy asset in this game is likely to be the Seahawks D/ST.  The question really isn’t going to be how many FPs Marshawn Lynch can score.  Instead its can Robert Turbin be a startable RB2 or Flex with the carries he’s likely to see after Beast Mode is placed back in his cage.  Things have been downright ugly for Jacksonville and they’re likely to get worse.  One thing is clear though, the Jaguars have two new members of their fan club:  Cleveland Browns CEO Joe Banner and General Manager Mike Lombardi.

Can #4) Clay is the New Myers

Yes, Charles Clay vultured a goal line touchdown last week, and no, you can’t count on that happening every week (or ever again).  However, Clay has seen 13 targets through two games, which extrapolates to 104 over the course of a full season.  That would have tied him for fifth among tight ends in 2012.  More impressively, Tate has secured ten of those 13 catches for a 76.9% catch rate, which shows impressive efficiency (Jimmy Graham is at 62% for his career).  While that number is likely to regress some, it is indicative of Clay’s natural pass catching skills.  It is also important to note that regardless of the changing role of Mike Wallace (one reception for 15 yards in week one and nine receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown in week two), which has affected the roles of roles of Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson, Clay’s role has stayed consistent in the first two weeks.  Obviously you’ll want to see how how this develops as the season moves on, starting with how he performs week three versus the Falcons, but Clay looks to me like this year’s Brandon Myers.

Can #5) Apparently, Tom Brady Cannot Throw it to Himself

I was also tempted to call this one “Blame it On the Rain,” but that might be a little too oversimplistic.  Missing Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola was just too much for Tom Brady to overcome especially now that Kenbrell Thompkins has apparently remembered just how raw he is (even at the ripe old age of 25) and Aaron Dobson figuring after he caught one long touchdown bomb that he really didn’t have to catch much of anything the rest of the night (three receptions for 56 yards and  one touchdown on ten targets).  The only receiver Brady had any semblance of chemistry with was Julian Edleman who saw a whopping 18 targets.  In addition, the problems were exacerbated by the Patriots inability to run the ball with Stevan Ridley finishing with just 16 carries for 40 yards.  This week the Patriots play a Buccaneers team that held Drew Brees in check for 59 minutes and 20 seconds of their week two matchup.  Unless and until Gronk returns, Brady is only going to go as far as his inexperienced receivers will take him.

Can #6) Knowshon Moreno and an Upright Peyton 

The three-headed Broncos running back committee found its largest head against the Giants in week two as Knowshon Moreno had 13 carries for 92 yards and two touchdowns.  While Montee Ball did have 12 carries, he did lose a crucial goal line fumble (Ronnie Hillman had just one carry), the situation may gain clarity due to the Broncos loss of Pro Bowl LT Ryan Clady.  Out of the three running backs, Moreno is the most adept at pass protection, which will be all the more important after Clady hit IR.  As I mentioned with Andrew Luck above, keeping #18 upright is the number one priority for the Broncos and it could increase Moreno’s playing time dramatically.  Going forward, I’d plan on starting him as an RB2 unless he or John Fox gives you a reason not to.

Enjoy your Sunday!

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