Mining for Paydirt: Week Three
Mining for Paydirt is a deep-sleeper article geared toward your average to larger sized leagues. The players we focus on here are owned in less than 35% of myfantasyleague.com leagues – they are your blue collar workers. I’m not going to give you names like Roy Helu or Joique Bell – those aren’t the droids I’m looking for. I want the players who are on the radar of only the realest of degenerates. Players you wouldn’t think of owning in a million and one years. These will strictly be for injury and bye week fill-ins based on matchups and situation. Some may stick, some won’t. It’s the nature of the beast and I’ll be thrilled to get one or two correct a week.
Week two was an odd one. Philip Rivers and Sam Bradford were top five quarterbacks, Eddie Royal continued to troll the world (or at least we think he is), James Starks and Knowshon Moreno were also top five players at their position and Charles Clay was a beautiful streaming option at tight end. Fantasy football, man…
Mining for Pay Dirt turned out to be solid as well. There weren’t any game changers, but solid nonetheless. In PPR formats, Riley Cooper ended up as the WR42 (2/25/1); Garrett Graham was the TE13, finishing above Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis and his teammate, Owen Daniels; Doug Baldwin ended his night with only a single catch , but that catch resulted in a 51-yard gain, making him the WR67. Nothing there would have made a huge impact on your fantasy matchups, so we’ll have to try harder this week. With that said, let’s dive in…
Robert Turbin, RB SEA vs JAC (31% owned)
Not a homer. I sincerely believe Turbin will get a decent amount of work in this week against the hapless Jaguars. In week two, he had six carries for 31 yards while starter, Marshawn Lynch carried the ball 28 times for 98 yards and a touchdown (he also caught three passes for 30 yards and a score). Having that many touches against a hard hitting defense like the 49ers takes its toll (not that I’d know firsthand or anything).
Lynch should get a bit of a reprieve this week, giving way to fellow battering ram, Turbin. I expect the Seahawks to be well ahead of the Jags by halftime, giving most of their starters a pseudo day off.
When you look at the Jaguars defense statistically, you’ll see they rank #2 overall against the pass. You’ll also note they are ranked #31 against the run. Why pass when you can jam it down the opponent’s throat?
The Jags have given up 347 yards on just 61 carries – only the Redskins’ run defense has been worse. Teams are averaging 30.5 rush attempts against them and I doubt that trend stops here.
With so many running back options looking out or highly questionable this weekend, Turbin very well could be sitting on your waiver wire, waiting to make a week three impact. He’s been the forgotten back since the arrival of rookie, Christine Michael, but Turbin remains the backup in Seattle. If you’re struggling this week with guys like Mark Ingram, Jacquizz Rodgers or Jason Snelling hoggin’ up space in your starting lineup, roll the dice on Turbin.
Pay Dirt Prediction: 15 carries, 75 yards and one touchdown; three receptions, 35 yards
Brandon LaFell, WR CAR vs NYG (34% owned)
I don’t like LaFell, let’s just get this out of the way. I’ve never rostered LaFell and have always felt his “talent” has been extremely overrated.
But Giants.
The Giants’ secondary is a mess and they’ve given up 276 yards and two touchdowns a game early into the season. The Panthers (0-2) are desperate and need to get Cam Newton and the offense going and the Giants’ defense is the equivalent of “more cowbell.”
Nothing on PFF will convince you LaFell is a good play here. On the season, he has just four receptions for a measly 13 yards – yes, you read that right. What he does have going for him is the Giants’ pass game has been more than decent while the run game continues to struggle (RIP David Wilson). I expect the Giants to air it out, with success, early and often against the twenty-second ranked Carolina pass defense. While the Giants open an early lead, the Panthers will have no choice but to play catch up via the pass, giving way to plenty of targets to LaFell and company.
With two clunkers to his name, my guess is LaFell is looking at you right now on your waiver wire – and for good reason. If you’re hurting for a flex play, he will be your man.
Pay Dirt Prediction: 6 receptions, 75 yards and one touchdown
Marvin Jones, WR CIN vs GB (6% owned)
Jones looked good on the few targets he received on Monday Night Football. He ended the night with four targets and three receptions for 35 yards. He played in just 25 of 89 snaps, mostly due to the Bengals having an early lead they would not relinquish.
Cincinnati has given up just 62.5 yards rushing per game (#7 overall) so I expect Aaron Rodgers to do what he does best with starter, Eddie Lacy out with a concussion against the fourteenth ranked pass defense.
Even though the Bengals have held their own in the passing game, they haven’t faced an opponent like the Packers yet this season (Steelers and Bears). They have a great defense, but no one is stopping the Pack’s pass game right now as they seem to be clicking on all cylinders. Most think this game could end up being a low scoring affair, but I’m firmly supplanted on the other side. With both teams’ running games looking somewhat pedestrian (James Starks did that against the Redskins, remember), this could very well be a shootout with the playmakers each team has on the outside.
Andy Dalton has averaged nearly 40 attempts per game thus far and I doubt that changes on Sunday. Green will do what Green does and Mohamed Sanu will get his usual four to five receptions, but it’ll be Jones who turns out to be your waiver wire all-star this weekend. I expect him to put up WR3 numbers (minimum) this week as the Bengals look to go over .500 for the season at home.
(Writer’s edit on 9/20/2013 10:00 AM PST) I should say I expect the Bengals to run more three wide receiver sets this weekend as I anticipate the Packers getting an early lead. Jermaine Gresham could very well stay in to help block Clay Matthews and company for most of the day so I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones gets a boon in snap count for this week. While the below prediction seems “too bold” (which I can understand), I’ll stand pat in thinking he’ll get some red zone looks.
Pay Dirt Prediction: 6 receptions, 85 yards and TWO touchdowns
