Divisional Breakouts

Eric Olinger

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Today we continue our weekly group effort series highlighting an offensive and defensive player from each division who we believe has breakout potential for the upcoming week. Because, let’s be honest, who really cares about last week? It’s all about players who can help us win the next game.

Since every league is different from size to scoring to lineup requirements, we set some parameters. We are looking for players who could go from “bench to breakout” in 12 team PPR leagues starting one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end, and a defense. The IDP nominees will be players who have solid matchups but due to the vastly differing IDP league depths, it will be much harder to identify “deep sleepers” without alienating most our readers. If you’re looking for deeper sleepers feel free to contact me on Twitter or in the comments section.

We won’t waste anyone’s time talking about a kicker. You also won’t see us trying to convince you a player like Drew Brees or Frank Gore are breakout players. We want players who are either on your bench or on your waiver wire. Please understand this is not a “Waiver Wire” article. We are trying to help you sift through the fringe players and identify who has the potential to put up better than normal statistics.

My partners in crime for this article are:

NFC North – Dan Meylor
NFC East – Karl Safchick
NFC South – Eric Hardter
NFC West – The FF Ghost
AFC North – Eric Olinger
AFC East – Jeff Beran
AFC South – Tim Stafford
AFC West – Scott Peak

NFC North

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN

It’s rare that anybody would look for a potential breakout from a player that has only been on the field for 11 of the 121 offensive plays his team has run thus far in the season.  That’s exactly what’s happening here and anybody who saw the opening kickoff of the Vikings game in Chicago on Sunday knows why.  Patterson took the kick 105 yards in impressive fashion.

After the game, Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier vowed to give the talented rookie from Tennessee more snaps going forward saying, “He definitely deserves to be on the field more.”  If Frazier stays true to what he said, Patterson could have a breakout day against the Browns in week three.  It’s unlikely that Cleveland would put shutdown corner Joe Haden on the unproven Patterson.  Buster Skrine and Chris Owens, the Browns’ two other cornerbacks, have given up 22 receptions for 232 yards and two scores combined through the first two weeks of 2013.

Even with the limitations that QB Christian Ponder brings to the Vikings’ passing game and his inexperience, Patterson could prove to be worth the gamble.

IDP- Henry Melton, DT CHI

In leagues that require you start a defensive tackle, they are often the hardest position to predict on a week to week basis. You hope for a sack but pray for anything but a goose egg. This week the Bears take on the Steelers and their makeshift offensive line. Without Maurkice Pouncey anchoring the middle of this line and Ben Roethlisberger’s never-say-die play, Melton should notch his sack of the season in the Steel City.

NFC East

Jordan Reed, TE WAS

The Washington Redskins spent a third round draft pick in 2013 on former Florida Gator, Jordan Reed. Many analysts, myself included, thought Reed would take many years to develop. Thus far, Reed has been Robert Griffin’s safety valve during the second half of the Redskins first two games. Many in the dynasty community were high on Reed since he was drafted, so hopefully he’s still a buy-low candidate in your league. His stat line of eight catches for 56 yards and a touchdown may not be gaining the attention it warrants. If he can be had for cheap, do it now. Soon the community will realize he is the long term option at the tight end position in Washington DC.

IDP- Mathias Kiwanuka, DE NYG

All the attention on the Giants defensive line goes to Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck, and rightfully so, but Kiwanuka is getting quite a bit of playing time in the rotation this year after shifting back from linebacker. The Giants are facing a Carolina Panthers team who just gave up 4.5 sacks to Mario Williams last week. Both teams are desperate for a win and cannot run the ball. If you’re looking for a deep start, Kiwi is worth a shot.

NFC South

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB ATL

Unfortunately for the Falcons’ Steven Jackson, his Atlanta rejuvenation experiment lasted a mere five quarters before he succumbed to a thigh injury.  As a “jack of all trades” type of runner, Jackson’s likely week three absence will lead to a plethora of carries, receptions and goal-line opportunities for the remainder of the Atlanta backfield.  As such, I expect backup Jacquizz Rodgers to stand as the likely beneficiary.

Once Jackson left the game, Rodgers received 15 touches to third-stringer Jason Snelling’s six, including four receptions for 28 yards.  He didn’t show well in the run game, but the Rams’ boast the league’s sixth stingiest rush defense, and Atlanta was tipping their hand in clear clock-killing mode. Don’t expect him to score, but Rodgers will get the chance for 15-20 touches against a middling Miami defense that has allowed eight receptions and 71 receiving yards to opposing ball carriers through two weeks.  For a week or two, Jackson owners could do worse.

IDP- Robert McClain, CB ATL

Robert McClain plays in the slot for the Falcons and has already racked up 17 solo tackles and two assists this year. This week they take on the Miami Dolphins who should be playing catch up most of the day, throwing early and often. While Asante Samuel and Desmond Trufant are dealing with the downfield threats of Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline, McClain should continue to clean up underneath.

NFC West

Tavon Austin, WR STL

Tavon Austin finally had his coming out party against the Falcons and his emergence makes the Rams even more dangerous. The Rams can now target any one of up to four receivers (Givens, Cook, Austin and Pettis) and not hope, but expect a 100 yard performance out of them. Austin was targeted a team leading 12 times, hauling in six receptions for 47 yards and two touchdowns. He also got involved in the running game with two rushes for eight yards, adding a whole extra dimension to his usefulness both in the actual game and the fantasy version of the game. The Rams in all likelihood will be in a shootout with the Cowboys and they are going to need every yard they can get. Expect Austin to see a lot more targets, possibly a few more rushes and maybe even a score as the Rams struggle to keep up.

IDP- Ahmad Brooks, OLB SF

It’s easy to get overlooked on a team full of IDP studs, but Ahmad Brooks quietly puts up respectable statistics from the outside linebacker spot opposite Aldon Smith. He’s coming off a very solid game against the Seahawks which he registered seven solo tackles, two assists, and a sack. This was after a very disappointing week one against the Packers when he registered only one solo tackle. Outside linebackers in the 3-4 are always a dicey proposition but look for this San Francisco defense to play fast and angry after being embarrassed on national TV last week. The Colts are having issues keeping Andrew Luck off the turf and this game should be no different.

AFC North

Tyler Eifert, TE CIN

The rookie tight end has shown well his first two games but if the Bengals are going to beat the Packers this week they are going to have to win a shootout and it’s going to take more than just A.J. Green. The Packers have given up seven receptions to tight ends in each of the first two games and Andy Dalton will need to lean on his heavily.

IDP- Terence Newman, CB CIN

Newman looked great Monday night against the Steelers, making solid tackles and playing the ball in the air. The Bengals are going to need him in a big way when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers come to town this weekend. He has 11 tackles through the first two games and should be able to put six to seven more this week.

AFC East

Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

The Atlanta Falcons defense has proven thus far to be quite stout against the run as they are ninth overall in the NFL in rushing yards against and tied for first overall with zero rushing touchdowns conceded.  Conversely, the Falcons defense has been very generous against the pass, giving up the fourth most passing yards and tied for sixth most passing touchdowns in the NFL.  Tannehill has averaged just shy of 300 yards passing in his first two weeks and now has a new weapon in H-Back Charles Clay as well as a developing chemistry with wide receiver Mike Wallace.  Expect for the Dolphins’ coaching staff to try and keep their offense moving in the right direction, literally and figuratively, by letting Tannehill keep airing it out.  A stat line of 325 yards and 3 TDs is a slightly optimistic yet a reasonable expectation. So, if that’s better than what you’ve been getting at the QB1 spot, don’t hesitate to plug him in.

IDP- Sheldon Richardson, DT NYJ

The rookie defensive tackle for the Jets has looked like the real deal. He has 12 tackles and half a sack through the first two games and now faces a rookie signal caller on a run heavy team. This game is probably going to be painful to watch but Richardson should be able to collect at least six tackles with the possibility of logging his first full sack.

AFC South

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU

He’s a man. Blows a read and causes a pick six, but fires right back with a handful of catches including the game winner. In the immortal words of Denny Green – He is what we thought he was. Go get him. –Tim Stafford

IDP- Derrick Morgan, DE TEN

The Chargers might have squeaked out a win against the Eagles last week, knocking me out of my Survivor poll in the process, but this offensive line is in shambles. Morgan has tallied three tackles and a sack in both games this season. Look for him to keep his consecutive games with a sack streak going.

AFC West

Mychal Rivera, TE OAK

Digging deep, Rivera is an interesting player to spotlight this week. Rivera is more of a receiving tight end, with Jeron Mastrud a blocker. Given the state of the Oakland offensive line, Mastrud will likely be blocking most of the time, giving Rivera more receiving opportunities. Rivera has been the more consistently targeted tight end in the Oakland offense with David Ausberry injured (5 receptions, 58 yards on 6 targets). Mastrud has not demonstrated proficiency as a receiving option in the Oakland offense (1 reception for 41 yards on 2 targets). Oakland plays Denver this week, and will almost certainly be playing from behind. That should give Oakland receivers more opportunities for receptions. The Denver defense has been generous to opposing tight ends, giving up 16 receptions, 186 yards on 29 targets in two games. In PPR leagues, Rivera may be worth a pre-emptive pick-up for dynasty owners with deep rosters.  Could he be the next breakout tight end? We will find out on Monday Night Football.

IDP- Akeem Jordan, ILB KCC

With Chip Kelly and the Eagles running plays 100 mph, the Chiefs linebackers will have plenty of opportunities to fill the stat sheet. With Dontari Poe wreaking havoc from the interior of the defensive line and Derrick Johnson getting most of the attention, Jordan should see his best fantasy day as a Chief.

There you have it folks. Hopefully we were able to give you some ideas if you’re looking for a sneaky play this week. See ya next week.

 

eric olinger
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