Second and Third Year Player Development: Week One
In this weekly column, I typically explore some young players who haven’t made much of a consistent impact to date. Some of these players may be available on your waiver wire, some may be available via a cheap or moderate trade as well. Acquiring or not acquiring one of these players could decide how well your dynasty or keeper team does for the next few years. This week I will be taking a look at a Thursday Night Football hero, tight end Julius Thomas, and Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker.  I will focus on their most recent matchup to draw the majority of my insight.
Julius Thomas, TE DEN
Thomas started the 2013 offseason as the third tight end behind Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen. The third year tight end dedicated himself to making improvements in his game which Thomas demonstrated by making great strides on practice field and in the preseason. Now the former basketball star is the unquestioned starter with Peyton Manning slinging him the pigskin.
The first game against the Baltimore Ravens was quite the showcase.  Thomas finished with five catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Please do not overreact to this performance. While I expect Thomas to be productive as a TE2, there is no reason to believe he will have another game like this. So if he is sitting on your waiver, try to acquire him, but do not use more than 25% or so of your budget to get him. Chances are Thomas will not be available for that price, so I would wait until the price goes down before I would buy.
What exactly did the tight end do right? On the first play of the game Manning targeted him, because Thomas demanded the least amount of attention with Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on the field.  I liked the way Thomas was moved all around the formation as an inline blocker, in the slot and sometimes in motion. He did a good job of catching the ball with his hands, not letting it get into his body. On both of his touchdown receptions, Thomas ran post routes almost untouched as he split the linebacker and safety help in half. He has quick feet, which he turned a short gain into an explosive play with a nice spin move. Thomas is also gaining Manning’s trust, which can be fickle at times.
What did Thomas do incorrectly?  The young tight end had concentration issues early as he got the ball jarred away from him. Thomas gives a good effort in his run and pass blocking, but has mixed results aka he looked decent and/or horrible at times. So when Joel Dreessen gets back healthy, Thomas may see less time on the gridiron, which will give him fewer opportunities to make plays. That should only be a temporary speed bump, though.
For his foreseeable 2013 future, it seems reasonable to expect Thomas to end the season with close to 60 receptions for 680 yards and five-t0-six touchdowns.  The savvy dynasty owner will realize though that he does have some warts (failure to appear in court trouble in regards to traffic violations is one). Be optimistic, but don’t put your full confidence in him.
Jake Locker, QB TEN
I watched a lot of Locker in the preseason. It’s the same old Jake – he looks good running the ball in small doses as long as he secures it. Locker is fairly accurate within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage and is better throwing the ball on the run.  It’s too bad his footwork is still a mess when he throws the ball as the young quarterback may never make the jump into a weekly fantasy option. Now it is easy to write off the third year quarterback, but keep in mind he has only started thirteen NFL games. Locker played sparingly in his rookie season and only started eleven games last season. He is built for more of a read option role and if the Titans decide to implement that kind of system, Locker may get some added value.
During the game against the Steelers, Locker made a concerted effort to stay in the pocket and seemed to be more patient waiting for passing lanes to open. He did a decent job stepping away from pressure at the beginning of the game, but eventually got eaten up by the Steelers front seven as the game wore on.
His ball placement was another matter completely as the quarterback threw behind several of his receivers. Even when Locker got the ball to the open player, he could not capitalize on hitting them in stride. Receivers would simply make the catch and either fall down or get tackled after they secured the ball. Locker let the ball get away from him a few times as there were a few ugly duck passes. He is at his best throwing short to intermediate passes near the sidelines as he is widely erratic in the middle of the field especially deep. The Steelers defensive backs kept on knocking his passes into the air. If any one of them had receiver quality hands, Locker might have been picked off three times in the game.
The Titans used the running game as their best way to attack the defense. It was surprising Locker was not used more in a designed run option role. He looked good on his read option play and got out of the pocket on a few occasions, but did not gain yardage. Locker is more athletic than his offensive coordinator gives him credit for. Despite the win, the Titans coaching staff seems unsure on how to use him. If this is how Locker is used this season, then his NFL starting future is very much in jeopardy. I would wait until Locker has a good game and sell him as high as you could unless they surprise me and start using the read-option on a regular basis. There are so many talented receiving weapons in Tennessee with Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and Kenny Britt that the organization cannot afford to sit on Locker longer than this year. I don’t think Locker will finish in the top 25 fantasy quarterbacks this season or any other.
For follow-up questions or information, contact me on twitter @AndrewMiley.
