IDP Watch: Week 1

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise but not yet discovered by the masses.  Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for astute dynasty players.

Quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns, or snap counts don’t often appear in the box scores. These key statistics are huge indicators of potential value changes as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback, or a string of sacks which may be on the horizon, or that a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

Here are some players and trends to keep an eye on based on week one performances.

Danny Trevathan, WLB, DEN

The buzz this offseason was all about the improvement of Nate Irving and the potential for a larger role in 2013. Well, he did have an improved role in the absence of Von Miller, but it was Trevathan who has the better fantasy role as the Broncos weakside linebacker. In week one, he played 74% of the team’s snaps on his way to four tackles and an interception. That means he was on the field in passing situations quite a bit, with Joe Flacco throwing the ball more than 60 times in an effort to keep up with Peyton Manning. While not a stellar game in the boxscore with four tackles, the snap count is a great sign for Trevathan as a potential option to hold this spot long-term.

Daryl Smith, ILB, BAL

Don’t be discouraged by Smith’s week one performance against the Broncos. He’s in a prime position to succeed in the Baltimore defense. He played every down and that’s the critical factor. On the flipside, while many expected Arthur Brown to have an immediate impact, he only played six snaps and didn’t post a tackle. Smith is the one who has become the leader of the defense in place of Ray Lewis and should finish with a solid season. A more focused running attack this week by the Browns should leave Smith with more than his week one performance of three tackles and an assist.

Lamaar Houston, DE, OAK

Over the last few years, Houston routinely got to the quarterback. However, he hasn’t yet been able to consistently turn those hurries and knockdowns into sacks. IDP owners have been waiting for that transition, but many have begun given up. With his week one performance, it appears Houston may finally be on the cusp of a breakout season. He played all but one snap while posting three tackles, two assists, and a sack. He again got to the quarterback and tallied six hurries in r the game. Houston is flying under the radar, but given the volume of snaps he’s likely to continue to see and his ability to get to the quarterback, he is a high upside player worth targeting.

Vince Williams, ILB, PIT

With Larry Foote on injured reserve, there is a gaping hole in the middle of the Steelers’ defense next to Lawrence Timmons. In week one, Kion Wilson filled Foote’s role after Foote left the. Some speculate it’s because Wilson is higher in the pecking order, but Williams was inactive week one. Either way, Coach Tomlin already stated that Wilson will be the starter week two. Don’t expect that to last long term as Wilson is a mediocre player. Instead, keep an eye on Williams who played well throughout the preseason and was highly graded by ProFootballFocus.

Jon Bostic, MLB, CHI

Much like Arthur Brown, many expected Bostic to replace an NFL defensive fixture. However, Bostic didn’t play a snap in week one and was relegated to a special teams role. It looks like DJ Williams will fill in at middle linebacker for 2013. I wouldn’t expect much production out of Bostic this year given the situation and the capable bodies ahead of him on the depth chart. An injury to Lance Briggs, James Anderson, or Williams looks like his only path to consistent snaps. Only stash Bostic if you believe in his ability.

Eric Berry, SS, KC

Many suspected it would happen, but now two years removed from ACL surgery, it looks like the aggressiveness and willingness for contact is back for Berry. In week one he posted six tackles and half a sack playing against a weak Jacksonville offense. Expect this to continue for Berry throughout 2013 and for him to re-emerge as a must start safety in all formats especially given the success that safeties have had in Chiefs’ current defensive scheme.

Damon Harrison, NT, NYJ

Typically, nose tackles aren’t great IDP options even in defense tackle required leagues. However, Harrison was dominant throughout the course of the preseason and again during week one. On a low number of tackle opportunities in week one (43), Harrison posted four tackles and one assist to lead the Jets. The Jets drafted Kenrick Ellis as their future in the middle of the defensive line, but Harrison has virtually ripped that from Ellis already. In deeper leagues with tackles required, Harrison will find his way onto my roster as a stash given what he’s shown to date. That production on 30 played snaps tells you how active and disruptive this guy is. This effectiveness per snap was evident in the preseason, as well. Keep an eye on him, he may prove to be one of the few fantasy relevant nose tackles.

He followed up this performance in week two with two tackles an an assist. Not a great statistical performance due to a another game of below average tackle opportunities, but Harrison continued to see a majority of the team’s snaps in the middle.

Shea McClellin, DE, CHI

An offseason sleeper for some, McClellin continued getting to the quarterback in week one with one sack, two tackles and two assists while playing 51% of the team’s snaps. Week one starter Corey Wootton only posted two assists on 73% of the team’s snaps – horrible. Many pegged Wootton as a potential breakout candidate in 2013, but given McClellin’s pressure ability despite being undersized, he appears to be a big upside player on this defensive line. The additional weight McClellin put on this offseason and his focus on pass-rushing technique should continue earn him more snaps as 2013 progresses.

Da’Norris Searcy, FS, BUF

After a rough camp, Searcy made the most of his week one start in the absence of Jairus Byrd. He put together a monster fantasy week with five tackles, four assists, a fumble recovery, a sack, and a touchdown.  But don’t get too excited. It appears that Byrd and Aaron Williams own the starting safety spots for the Bills. Byrd is still out with an injury leaving Searcy some value headed into week two.  But that’s a short-term situation as he should see his snaps cut once Byrd is healthy. Searcy still should be rostered long-term given the positive ability shown, but snaps may keep Searcy from being a consistent contributor in the short-term.

 

Other players to keep an eye on.

Bront Bird, ILB, SD

Bird was solid in week one with 10 tackles, two assists, and one hurry. But temper your enthusiasm. Manti Te’o is on the shelf and will compete with Bird for snaps when healthy. Bird may be a viable short-term option, but he struggled mightly in coverage. He was the victim of two tight end touchdown passes. He’ll have to improve in that department to make a long-term impact and keep Te’o on the sidelines.

Antonio Allen, SS, NYJ

Quietly, Allen played a little over 70% of the team’s snaps and collected four tackles with two assists. He was the Jets second leading tackler. Given the low number of tackle opportunities for the Jets as mentioned above, this was a pretty impressive performance. It was the same story last night in week two as Allen led the team in tackles with four and four assists in yet another game of low tackle opportunities for the Jets. With a rookie quarterback and ball control the focus, it seems the Jets may see a low volume of tackle opportunities all season long, which isn’t great for Demario Davis and David Harris.

George Selvie, DE, DAL

Unfortunately, Anthony Spencer will steal snaps from Selvie when he returns, but in week one on 77% of the team’s snaps, Selvie excelled and built on a solid preseason. He got to the quarterback with a sack, two quarterback hits, and four hurries. He’s a great stash in deeper leagues given his athletic ability and production.

Alec Ogletree, WLB, STL

There’s been concern that Ogletree may not play every down early in his rookie season. He nearly did in week one playing over 90% of the team’s snaps and finishing with nine tackles. He’s looking like the top rookie IDP pick many expected. If he maintains this snap count, this production should continue throughout 2013 and prospectively.

Zach Brown, WLB, TEN

After a slow rookie year start, Brown has been a monster. He’s all over the field making plays – sacks, interceptions, and causing fumbles. As an everydown player, Brown has become a must start after proving a lot of draft critics wrong in 2012. He finished with eight tackles and two sacks in week one of 2013. That looks like it’ll continue throughout 2013.

Robert McClain / Desmond Trufant, CB, ATL

McClain posted very solid numbers in inconsistent snaps in 2012. As a starter, that production continued last week with eight tackles on 100% of the team’s snaps. After seeing how he was used in week one and given the Falcons offense, he’s a great candidate to finish as a top corner. He’s  a classic example of why corners are the kickers of IDP and why they can be turned over every year. Trufant, on the other side, is a starter and looks like he’ll be a great rookie corner rule guy who will be targeted frequently.

Follow Steve on Twitter at @SteveWyremski.