The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. In my 12-team PPR auction league, I missed out on a good quarterback because of funds, so I made a deal where I gave CJ Spiller, EJ Manuel and Bernard Pierce for Andrew Luck, Eddie Lacy and TY Hilton. We start one quarterback, two running backs, two receivers, a tight end and a FLEX. Thoughts? – Claire in PA
I’m normally a firm believer that if you’re going to trade a skill-position stud, you should always be receiving one in return. In general, trades that fail to follow that premise are of the “quantity over quality” type, where the sheer volume of players received provides an illusion of a fair deal – but typically it’s all filler, no thriller. So it might surprise you when I say that when it comes to this trade, I think you did quite well.
Yes, you had to give up the Bills’ CJ Spiller, who is one of the most coveted overall assets in all of dynasty football. No longer mismanaged in Chan Gailey’s pass-happy scheme, he’s expected to set a career high in touches, especially in a conservative offense with rookie EJ Manuel under center. Combined with his otherworldly efficiency, this increased workload gives Spiller the potential to challenge for the title of fantasy’s top ball carrier.
However, despite giving up the best player in the trade, you more than made up for it by receiving the next three best assets. The Colts’ Andrew Luck is popularly viewed as a top-five dynasty quarterback, and given the combination of his age and skill, could be the cornerstone of your team for the next ten years. No, the quarterback position isn’t overly valuable in a 12-team league, but you filled the hole in your lineup with one of the game’s best.
The other players you received, running back Eddie Lacy and receiver TY Hilton, are both highly regarded young talents. Lacy should provide the Packers with the punch they’ve been lacking out of the backfield since Ryan Grant’s heyday, and Hilton flashed big-time playmaking skill during an excellent 2012 rookie campaign. I’d expect both of these players to be fixtures in your starting lineup sooner rather than later.
Rounding out the trade are lesser-valued players in the afore-mentioned Manuel, as well as the Ravens’ Bernard Pierce. Both may prove to be assets in the future, but neither is likely to offer up any immediate fantasy prowess – they’re currently nothing more than bench material. So considering you combined your depth with one stud to receive three players with the ability to start this year, I won’t hesitate to sign off on this deal.
2. In my 12-team half-PPR league I was offered RG3 for Ryan Mathews. I already have Colin Kaepernick, Eddie Lacy, Reggie Bush and Le’Veon Bell, and we only have four roster slots for running backs – we also start one to two ball carriers. Would you acquire RG3 or hold onto Mathews? – Scott in MA
I’ve made this comparison before, but dynasty football can often times closely resemble the stock market. Similar to Wall Street, dynasty owners often find themselves applying the same principles of “buy low” and “sell high.” However, sometimes it’s not that cut and dry.
San Diego’s Ryan Mathews typifies such an aberration. Coming off a miserable 2012 season where he had more broken bones than total touchdowns, Mathews’ metaphorical stock has plummeted to staggering new lows. Considering the grim prospects facing the Chargers this year, it’s far from guaranteed Mathews’ value will rebound.
Seldom used on third downs, it’s entirely possible Mathews cedes a large chunk of work to fellow ball carriers Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown. With the Chargers likely to play from behind, it also seems likely that quarterback Philip Rivers will be forced to air it out as San Diego abandons the run game. So when it comes to Mathews, if you don’t sell low now, you might wind up being forced to sell lower as the season progresses.
Redskins’ signal caller Robert Griffin III, on the other hand, is the definition of a buy low. He flashed elite potential as a rookie and is reportedly experiencing an Adrian Peterson-esque recovery from off-season knee surgery (we’ll find out more shortly here tonight). With coach Mike Shanahan saying his quarterback will be allowed to run the same offense as in 2012, it’s more than fair to expect high-end QB1 ability.
So even though you already have Colin Kaepernick as your starting quarterback, I’d make the move. It’s more than probable you’ll wind up starting RGIII depending on the matchups, and at worst either he or Kaepernick will provide you with enticing trade bait. Finally, given your roster requirements at the running back position, you don’t have any spots to waste – I’d make the deal while you still can.
3. I am rebuilding and waited to grab young receivers in my draft. I ended up with a roster of Mike Wallace, Kendall Wright, TY Hilton, Antonio Brown, Michael Floyd, Rueben Randle, Vincent Brown, Golden Tate and Kenbrell Thompkins. My problem now is deciding which players to keep. I have room for six of the receivers and can throw a seventh on my developmental squad (but won’t be able to play him for the rest of the season). Which six do I keep, who is my developmental, and who gets cut? – Jordan in NY
This is a tough one for sure. All eight of these receivers are worthy of roster spots, and they all also have the potential for fantasy viability as soon as this year. With that said though, there still seems to be a fairly distinct pecking order amongst your plethora of pass catchers.
Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are the clear number-one receivers on their offenses, and as such each should be promoted to your active roster. Similarly, TY Hilton, Vincent Brown and Michael Floyd seem likely to have big roles on their respective teams as well. Each of those three players also deserves a spot on your roster, and we’re now down to three players for two spots.
For your last active roster spot I’d go with the Giants’ Rueben Randle. Though it’s true he’s no higher than third in the current pecking order, he’s only one (fairly likely) injury to Hakeem Nicks away from turning into a player with WR2 level potential. Since we’re already talking about him as your WR6 at this point, it makes sense to me to roll with that kind of potential.
We’re now left with a choice between the Titans’ Kendall Wright and Patriots’ UDFA Kenbrell Thompkins, and despite the hype, I’m going to advise you to give Thompkins the axe. He had a great preseason, but will more than likely remain behind Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski in the pecking order, and Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen will both command touches in the running game. I’ve written recently about the potential of the New England offense, and while they have an obvious track record of success, there are more than likely too many mouths to feed. Suffice it to say, Thompkins appears to be on the short end of that stick.
This leaves Wright as your developmental player, which is a good spot for him. He’s stuck behind both Kenny Britt and Nate Washington on a team set to lean on running back Chris Johnson, and it’s probable he won’t improve upon his underwhelming 2012 rookie line. This gives you another year to see what you have in him without taking a roster hit, and spares you from cutting the former first round pick.
4. After Peyton Manning’s epic seven-touchdown performance against the Ravens on opening night, where would you put his current value in a dynasty league? Obviously he is has great value to a contender, but what kind of return should a rebuilding team in a 12-team league expect in return? Would a young signal caller like Russell Wilson represent even value in dynasty? Or do you feel a contender should give up more than Wilson for a couple years of Manning? – Tim in FL
I like the Broncos’ Peyton Manning quite a bit, and not just from a re-draft perspective. In fact, given his combination of skill and poise, along with a transcendent supporting cast Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and emerging talent Julius Thomas, Manning is a threat to challenge for overall QB1 numbers for the next couple years. For owners unconcerned with age, the 37-year old Manning represents an elite option for contending teams.
But when it comes to expecting a top young option like Russell Wilson in return for “The Sheriff,” I’ll provide my thoughts by quoting famed college analyst Lee Corso – not so fast, my friend! Sure, Manning was great Thursday night, but 450 yards and seven touchdowns are the exception, not the norm. He’ll probably continue to post great numbers, but the weekly difference he’ll provide over Wilson is unlikely to match the discrepancy in age.
Since you’re in a 12-team league, the inherent devaluation of the quarterback position is just a way of life – as such, don’t shoot for the moon. You obviously want to sell high here, but as a rebuilding squad, try to target a combination of young running backs, receivers and/or draft picks. It might not seem like a huge windfall, but remember, Manning’s probably not going to replicate his historic performance next week. Even though you’re currently holding a royal flush, you could still wind up overplaying your hand.
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