The Patriot Act

Eric Hardter

Since 2007, the New England Patriots offense has been a consistent bastion of fantasy greatness.  The most obvious name is that of the maestro under center, Tom Brady, but Foxboro’s finest have also produced several other high-end fantasy contributors, including Randy Moss, Wes Welker, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Stevan Ridley.  Moving down the bench a little further, several other of coach Bill Belichick’s boys have provided some level of tangible fantasy production and this list includes players such as Laurence Maroney, Donte Stallworth, Kevin Faulk, Matt Cassel, Danny Woodhead, Deion Branch and Brandon Lloyd.  Suffice it to say, outside of New Orleans and Green Bay, no other NFL team has been as continually dominant within fantasy box scores.

So even with the recent departures of Welker, Lloyd, Woodhead and Hernandez, it’s hard to blame dynasty owners for wanting to get in on the ground floor of the revamped New England offense.  After all, if it is truly a matter of forcing players into the “system” as many believe, why can’t the current crop of rookies and newly signed free agents step in and step up?  If the “next man up” mantra holds true, the offseason of 2013 should wind up as nothing more than a figurative blip on the radar.

But to quote comedian Dave Chappelle, at what point does “keeping it real go wrong?”  While there appear to be a few certainties within the confines of Gillette Stadium, to what depths are owners willing to go to find the next golden ticket?  The table below shows just how far.

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To me, the results are startling.  A whopping ten Patriots are being drafted in the first 190 selections, and 11 are being selected overall.  Though this is oversimplification at its finest, if those first 190 picks were distributed evenly across all 32 NFL teams, each squad would see 5.9 representatives apiece.  New England is 41% ahead of that pace.

Continuing, five of the first 74 receivers selected just happen to don a Pats’ uniform, equating to 6.8% of the positional population.  Two of the first 26 running backs (7.8%) and two of the top 17 tight ends (11.8%) also make their homes in New England.  Finally, quarterback Ryan Mallett, he of the four career passing attempts, is coming off the board as the 31st overall signal caller, presumably in the hopes he’ll one day continue Brady’s prolific ways.

It doesn’t end there.  Recently the DLF staffers, led by Jacob Feldman, partook in a three-round rookie mock draft.  Of the 36 total picks, four of them (11.1%) were Patriots.  This is summarized in the table below.

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At this point in the analysis, you might be asking yourself what the big deal is?  The New England offense is a well-oiled machine, so what are a few new faces going to do to gum up the works?  Perhaps it’ll be nothing, but I refuse to be so overzealously certain there won’t be any kind of drop-off.

Remember, four of these potential key players are rookies (shown in the table above), and two of them (Thompkins and Sudfeld) went undrafted.  The presumed WR1 of the offense, Danny Amendola, is also new to the offense and has an injury history a mile long (22 missed games in four seasons, along with already missing a week of training camp with an undisclosed affliction).  Star tight end Rob Gronkowski is still on the mend and popular breakout candidate Shane Vereen has all of 103 career touches to his name, including last postseason.

Moreover, Brady is 36 years old and has seen his performance (yards per attempt, completion percentage and quarterback rating) slip over the past three years.  While he likely has a few good years left, Father Time remains undefeated and Brady has become increasingly dependent upon volume over efficiency.  Once he’s gone, will the offense be the same?

Well, I’ll play Devil’s Advocate to my own argument and say it will.  As such, the following table illustrates what the offense is going to look like, based upon the averages over the past six years.

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The two positions that have been produced the highest fantasy yield over this time have been the Patriots’ top running back and receiver.  As such, Ridley and Amendola (despite the injuries) appear to be locked and loaded for sustained production.  The RB2, WR2 and TE1 have also produced average to above average results since 2007, but there’s been less of a pattern.  I want to delve deeper into that concept with a series of qualitative positional overviews:

RB1 – This position has yielded at least 190 touches every year since 2009, spiking with Stevan Ridley’s 296-touch workload last year.  It appears to be an integral part of the offense.

RB2 – This has been a relatively stable position on the Patriots, as the six years saw a low of 95 touches and a high of 141.  Shane Vereen is widely assumed to pick up the slack here, but be warned – he’s not nearly the lock for production many believe he is.

WR1 – This is arguably the most valuable fantasy position on the team, apart from Brady.

WR2 – When Welker and Moss were both in town, both were guarantees for top-flight production to the point that the WR1 and WR2 positions were nearly indistinguishable.  However, since 2010 the WR2 position has been devalued, with Brandon Lloyd producing the best numbers in 2012 (74 receptions for 911 yards and four touchdowns).

WR3 – Outside of Donte Stallworth’s 46 receptions for 697 yards and three touchdowns in 2007, this position has carried no fantasy value.

TE1 – Simply put, Rob Gronkowski has revolutionized the position, turning it into a fantasy gold mine.

TE2 – Until Aaron Hernandez came aboard in 2010, the TE2 in the Patriots offense was non-existent.  Since then, however, the average numbers for the position stand at 57.3 touches, 646.3 yards and 7.3 touchdowns.

In summation, the Patriots used to rely heavily on passing to their top two wide receivers, who could each be counted upon for WR1-level fantasy production.  Since 2010, however, a rise in running back and tight end usage has mitigated receiver production outside of the offense’s WR1.  The RB2 position brings with it consistent usage, but not yet enough upside to get carried away for Vereen’s prospects.

All told, on a yearly basis no more than five options seem likely to carry value.  With the RB1, RB2, WR1 and TE1 positions seemingly filled by Ridley, Vereen, Amendola and Gronkowski respectively, dynasty owners are trying to shoehorn the combination of the four rookies, plus Julian Edelman, into one final fantasy-relevant spot.  If New England continues to lean on the tight end position, Sudfeld appears to be a steal.  However, should they return to their receiver-heavy ways, one of Thompkins or Dobson is the likely beneficiary, with Boyce and Edelman in the mix as well.  Of course, Brady and Belichick could choose to deconstruct the whole operation, moving towards a true spread-the-wealth scheme, in which case the whole thing becomes unpredictable.

Should that happen, it would behoove owners to keep their options open.  Instead of Vereen, consider players with similar ADP’s like Dwayne Bowe, Drew Brees or RGIII.  In lieu of Dobson, look towards Rueben Randle or Vincent Brown.  Skip Thompkins and target Dwayne Allen.  Snag Fred Davis over Sudfeld, replace Edelman with Jeremy Maclin and take Quinton Patton instead of Boyce.  No, you won’t have your shiny new Patriots toy, but you’ll spare yourself from playing the guessing game and avoid any subsequent headaches that will accompany the wrong choice.

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eric hardter