On Sale Soon
There are a few things we know are going to happen each and every year in the fantasy world at certain points in time. We know that the price of rookie draft picks will skyrocket in April around the NFL draft. We know that the stars of the NFL playoffs will be overvalued the following year.
The savvy dynasty owner also knows that many owners are impatient with rookies and young players. Some owners have very unrealistic expectations of their young players or much too short of a time table. Patience is a virtue not everyone possesses, and the savvy owner can take advantage of that.
NFL players normally don’t produce at fantasy worthy levels in their first year and often not in their second year either. The likes of Andrew Luck, Doug Martin, AJ Green and Julio Jones are truly special cases and not the norm, but people forget this. This is something you can take advantage of if you have the roster space. The impatient owners will grow frustrated that their young players aren’t meeting their unrealistic expectations and might be willing to trade them in for a lower upside producer who can help them win now or even a future draft pick.
Here is my list of rookies who will likely fall short of the expectations some have for them over the first part of this year, causing short sighted owners to get frustrated, and allowing you to buy them at a discount. These players aren’t guaranteed to break out down the road, but they will have the same upside in three months as they do now with a cheaper price tag. If you need some help down the road, these players could make good targets who can help your team in 2014 or 2015.
Tavon Austin, WR STL
Austin is the highest drafted player on my list. He makes his appearance due to no fault of his own. I love the talent and he is still my top rated player in a PPR league. The problem is he isn’t the talent the top picks have been in the past few years. In short, he isn’t AJ Green, Julio Jones or Andrew Luck in terms of talent. He’s going to need a bit of time to adjust and settle into his role with the Rams. Some owners are going to be disappointed when they start him and get single digit numbers during that adjustment period. Give them a few weeks and then pounce. Just don’t wait too long, because he will figure it out.
Christine Michael, RB SEA
Michael’s issue is that Marshawn Lynch is a very talented, complete running back. He accounted for over 75% of the carries by a running back and about 50% of the receptions at the position in 2012. There really isn’t any reason to expect that to change in 2013, and that doesn’t leave a ton of room for Michael to produce. Some are expecting him to come in and make it a timeshare. I just don’t see that happening. Michael might turn into a top back once the Seahawks move on from Lynch if he can keep his head in the game and stay healthy. It could be a few years before that happens, though. Some of Michael’s owners will get impatient and frustrated in the meantime.
Justin Hunter, WR TEN
Hunter has always been a multi-year project. He has the body and athletic ability of AJ Green. The problem is his mind isn’t quite up to the challenge at this point in time. He needs to get tougher, work on his attention to detail, improve his focus and bulk up a bit to handle NFL defenders. Add in that he’s locked behind at least Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright for this year on a bad passing offense and it means he likely isn’t going to do much this season. He has also received a lot of bad press recently pointing out the same things we already knew. Some owners are already thinking about bailing on him.
Aaron Dobson, WR NE
With all of the pre-season hype going to fellow rookie teammates Kenbrell Thompkins and Zach Sudfeld, Dobson is starting to get lost in the shuffle. The thing is that Dobson might be the most talented of the bunch but also the most raw. He is bigger, faster and stronger than Thompkins with more natural ability. He just needs to refine his game and work on the mental part of the game. That will take some time, but he should be able to do it. I expect Thompkins to have the better 2013 season, but Dobson should have a better career with the Patriots once he figures it out.
Marcus Lattimore, RB SF
This one will be especially true in leagues the drafted early. Through most of the spring and summer we heard all about how well Lattimore was rehabbing and a lot of future owners bought in. Even with that press, the smart money was on Lattimore missing the entire 2013 season and recent reports are leaning that way as well. With Kendall Hunter returning soon, a good performance or two could push Lattimore’s long term stock even lower. Lattimore has enormous talent and he could be a valuable part of a committee in 2014 with San Francisco’s run heavy attack.
Zac Stacy, RB STL
I’ve liked Stacy since the start of the draft process last winter. The problems started when he was drafted by the Rams and everyone else started to like him as well. Like several others on this list, the hype got a little out of control. I’ve seen him drafted as early as the middle of the first round, which is way too high. He is a jack of all trades, but he is merely above average. He could be a very nice complement to one of the smaller homerun hitters on the roster. The problem is it will take time for him to carve out his role in the shifting backfield of the Rams. He just isn’t going to be the next Alfred Morris like some expected.
Johnathan Franklin, RB GB
Franklin was a top three running back on some people’s boards prior to the draft. After sliding in the draft and going to the same team as Eddie Lacy, he slipped a bit. With Lacy seemingly running away with the first string work in the preseason, Franklin’s stock is falling even more. However, I still think Franklin is a better overall fit for the Packers offense. Lacy has good power and will probably always have the goal-line work, but Franklin could end up being the primary back down the road. That could be a year or two off with Lacy getting all of the press.
Stedman Bailey, WR STL
People still don’t realize Bailey had an equal number of receptions to Austin at West Virginia last season but he had almost 350 more yards and over double the touchdowns. Simply put, he has a ton of talent. He has struggled a bit in camp and the hype has gone to others. Long term, I still expect him to eventually earn the third wide receiver role and work opposite Chris Givens in three wide sets with Austin in the slot. It just might not be until late in the season or even 2014. If Sam Bradford takes the next step this year, Bailey could have some nice upside.
All Rookie Tight Ends
This might be a bit of a broad stroke, but that should tell you something. Every year we get extremely excited about the rookie crop of tight ends. More often than not they end up disappointing us and letting their fantasy owners down. The reason being is tight ends take longer than just about any position to figure things out. It wouldn’t surprise me if the owners of Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and all the others are disappointed looking at their rookies sitting on their bench week after week or burning them when they are in the starting lineup. Few tight ends (even top ten tight ends) produce as rookies so don’t read much into the failures of any of these prospects. Instead, offer to take them off the hands of their owners at a nice discount late during the season.
Timing and price are of the utmost importance when targeting these players. They won’t be good targets in all leagues, especially if they are owned by patient owners. Some players will turn into reliable fantasy assets down the road while others will in fact bust. Young players and draft picks are always a risk. You just need to buy them at the right time and at the right price to minimize the risk.
Good luck!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
