5-5-5

Jeff Haverlack Posted On August 22, 2013

randle

With just over two weeks to endure before the kickoff of the 2013 NFL season, now is the time to perform any last minute roster tuning in the way of trades to fill holes or waiver wire additions based on what the preseason has shown us. It’s all too easy to simply complete your draft and put your team away until kickoff. This isn’t the time to go hands-off in your approach. You’ve got to keep the pedal to the metal and outwork your fellow coaches. You need every advantage or lottery ticket you can muster.

The following is a list of those players who fall into the three categories I always like to pay close attention to as the preseason nears its end. Here I offer five players I’m buying, selling or represent deep roster sleepers.

Five I’m Buying

So what does “buying” actually mean in this context. Buying here simply means these players are names who have yet to substantially perform on the field or are trending well below what I feel their values should represent. All these players will likely exist on a roster, which means you’ll need to casually mention them in trade talks. A strategy I like to employee is to include the target’s name near the end of a larger list so as to represent less interest. Take special note if these players exist on a team particularly deep at the targeted player’s position. These aren’t names that you should add at any cost. Quite the contrary in fact. These are players to add only if the price is right.

Rueben Randle, WR NYG

Arguably, Randle has been the fastest rising player of any non-starter in 2013. The 6’2″ receiver has an iron grip on the third receiver role in New York and his draft stock has been rising steadily. He closed out 2012 with a four reception, 58 yard, two touchdown performance that hinted at his future potential. More importantly, with the health of Hakeem Nicks seemingly a weekly concern, it’s not hard to project a starting opportunity for Randle sooner rather than later. Beyond a bite from the injury bug, the Giants seem content to allow Nicks to play out the final year of his contract and test his value on the open market. With Randle rising to the challenge, the Giants may be completely content in giving him a starting gig beginning in 2014. The 22-year old receiver has the size, maturity and offense to be a fantasy starter. If he’s available on the cheap, now is the time to add him.

Mike Williams, WR TB

He’s got the size, speed and role in the offense that just can’t be ignored. Best of all, he doesn’t seem to get a lot of the spotlight in an offense with Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin. Williams just signed a new contract and he’s one of my favorite unsung, yet dynamic, receivers. 26 years old with nearly 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns in 2012, he’ll continue to be the benefactor of an offense that runs through Martin and passes through Jackson. I believe Mike Williams is the most talented receiver on the roster and he makes for a great buy before 2013 gets underway.

Martellus Bennett, TE CHI

Now with a year under his belt as a full-time starter and an off-season of experience, Bennett is poised to punish defenses that are forced to double Brandon Marshall. Bennett is extremely athletic and rangy with fierce toughness and a nasty streak that is unrivaled at the position. With Jay Cutler needing weapons, Bennett has received little attention in drafts and has been one of my favorite later targets. I believe he can be a top ten tight end in 2013, perhaps push for TE6 if the Bears can establish a noteworthy ground game.

Josh Gordon, WR CLE

I may take heat for this notation, especially considering what I said about Justin Blackmon below, but I’m sticking to my guns here. I’m a big Gordon fan and while I have him ranked lower than my DLF brethren, it’s more an indication of his knucklehead factor than his ability. He’s only 22 years old, but possesses a monster game that defenders will constantly have a tough time matching up against. If Greg Little can put together any sort of season, the Browns may actually have a noteworthy offensive attack in 2013. As for Gordon. I believe he can be an 80 reception receiver in the current offense and pull down double-digit touchdowns IF he gets his head screwed on straight. He’s one infraction away from a lengthy suspension and he’s only 22 – that’s usually not a good combination. However, receivers of his size and ability are a rare breed and I’m usually willing to give a nod to talent over decision-making early on in a career … when the price is right.

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

Bernard hasn’t received much respect after being the top rated running back on most boards pre-draft and even post-draft. In camp, he’s looked like an every-down back, runs bigger than his size would suggest and still possesses the dynamic he showed consistently in college. In PPR formats, Bernard should be on the rise as he’ll be the primary beneficiary of the short yardage passing game in addition to a share of the backfield carries . The presence of A.J. Green should keep defenses honest, allowing Bernard more space underneath. As it stands, Montee Ball and LeVeon Bell are trending as the hot topics for rookie running backs (though Bell’s lisfranc injury is going to throw some cold water on that) and Eddie Lacy is beginning to rise on boards as well. All the backs in this year’s class are very close in talent level, but if you are able to land Bernard at any point after 1.04, consider it a gift. Even better, buy him low if you can.

Five I’m Selling

There are numerous reasons to sell a player. Age, production, team depth, injury or something as nebulous as personal preference will often deem a player as a “sell.” For purposes of this article, I’m highlighting those players who are still in their playing prime. These players represent those who I want nothing to do with in fantasy, for any number of reasons.

DeMarco Murray, RB DAL

While there’s no questioning that Murray has the skill-set to be a productive fantasy running back, it’s easy to question his ability to stay healthy enough to actually produce on a consistent basis. Heading into his third year as a professional, Murray has missed 28% of his games and major questions loom as to his toughness. His draft stock continues to slip and with the ever-widening second tier within the running back position, I can find many more names that are far higher on the intrigue factor than is Murray. I’m more than willing to allow another owner to take the risk and shudder with each hit Murray takes, wondering if he’ll get back up.

Mike Wallace, WR MIA

Truth be told, I’ve been selling Wallace for years and have yet to own him on a single one of my fantasy teams. I just won’t do it. 2013 was finally the year I expected as he finished no better than the WR21 in PPR formats. But even in previous years, when he could be found in the top ten, his consistency has been somewhat uninspiring. He’s not a receiver you can have in your lineup as a WR1 and feel comfortable. Even as a WR2, I have little fear when seeing his name starting across from me in a given match-up. Now he finds himself in Miami in with an offensive system that fails to impress. The Dolphins are young and Ryan Tannehill is an up and comer, but I’m still not buying. He’s a pure deep threat receiver in an offense needing weapons – not a good mix.

Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

This one keeps me up at night. Like Wallace above, I have yet to draft Justin Blackmon even though I believed he was a star in the making coming out in 2012. What has followed is a significant issue with substance abuse as he’s one strike away from receiving a full year suspension. In cases like this, I normally don’t panic if the player is less than 25 years of age, the mark at which I believe maturity really begins to take shape. I’m willing to make an exception to my normal thought process for Blackmon. Just too much, too soon. I can understand if you want to add him to your buy-low list as I may even be intrigued if the price is attractive enough, but he’s a player that most aren’t bailing on due to age and current value. I’ll let owners of Blackmon come to me first.

Chris Ivory, RB NYJ

One of the off-season’s greatest risers has been none other than the injury plagued bruising running back, Chris Ivory. I want to believe, I really do. But I can’t. I was able to push aside my concerns and give him the benefit of the doubt shortly after his change of scenery, but as quickly as I gave into my vulnerability for talented backs in new situations, he just as quickly was back on the bench with a hamstring injury. Very few injury prone runners ever shed that label and as much as I like Ivory’s violent running style and size, I just don’t want to take the risk on him unless I have no other options. And given that he’s now playing for the Jets (who I can safely predict will have an anemic offense in 2013), it’s strikes two and three. Ivory is out for me.

Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR

He was a DLF favorite for a long time and we’ve done our part of keeping the air in the balloon. It’s no secret many of us are largely ‘off the wagon’ on Stewart and I’m no exception here. No need to get into it more, it is what it is.

Five Sleepers

Ask any fantasy enthusiast to define “sleeper” and you’ll likely receive a different answer each time. Here at DLF, we try to exist beyond the obvious. You won’t often see players like Josh Gordon, Lamar Miller or Kenny Britt – these players are well known and either have expectations already attached or are being drafted with a higher value. The players I’m identifying are those who are well down in the ranking of their respective positions or haven’t yet had a noteworthy season. Some of these names have now begun to receive notice in your free agency pool so don’t be surprised if they are not available.

Lance Dunbar, RB DAL

True that Dunbar appears on my list at least partially due to the fact that “sell” candidate DeMarco Murray is all that stands between him and a starting opportunity. Fellow backfield mate and rookie Joseph Randle doesn’t elicit any excitement, at least from me and Dunbar is bigger than most realize (5’9″/203). From preseason usage, it appears as though Dunbar has locked up backup duties to the aforementioned Murray and given Murray’s oft-injured status, there’s good value to be had here. Best of all is Dunbar’s dynamic. He’s got a terrific center of balance, runs tougher than would be expected and catches the ball well on the move. In the open field he’s electric and possesses the speed to go the distance on every touch. At 23 years of age, I believe he needs to be added now. His recent ankle injury is unfortunate, but it doesn’t change my view. In fact, it makes for a greater opportunity.

Jarius Wright, WR MIN

A 2012 rookie, the Vikings believed Wright’s precision route running and legitimate 4.40 time will make for a highly productive slot receiver. More than one report surfaced during the period following Percy Harvin’s trade to Seattle that Minnesota’s coaching staff remains extremely high on Wright’s abilities to fill in for departed Harvin. What isn’t known is Wright’s ability to stay healthy and, to wit, he’s currently down with a concussion suffered this preseason. Harvin and Wright are similarly sized and also share a similar on-field dynamic. With the ball in his hands, his natural speed and field vision are both on display and I believe he’ll be heavily used in three receiver sets in 2013. As long as he can remain healthy, I believe Wright has a lot of upside. Better yet, there’s a greater than 50% chance that he’s available in your free agency pool.

Julius Thomas, TE DEN

Being that Thomas played his college ball in my backyard while at Portland State, I was probably more tuned in to him than most during the 2011 draft when he was selected in the fourth round. Thomas is a long and athletic tight end and until very recently has been off of the radar even in dynasty leagues. However, he’s off to a relatively hot start in the preseason and the coaching staff is giving him as many reps as he can handle in camp. Receiving passes from Peyton Manning could pay dividends immediately, but I believe Thomas’ skill set is worthy enough to roster him regardless of who is under center. He’s still listed as the Broncos’ third tight end on the depth chart, but I won’t be surprised to see him starting before the end of the season, potentially even in week one.

Matt Scott, QB JAX

We’re talking of the deepest of the deep sleepers here. I have a bit of a man-crush on Scott, but I think for all the right reasons. Much like Russell Wilson of the Seahawks (who plays far beyond his measureables and has intangibles that don’t necessarily show up at the NFL Combine or Pro-Day workouts), Scott has the “it” factor I look for in players, especially quarterbacks. I can break him down relatively easily on poor throws, lack of anticipation, bad decision making or sloppy mechanics more than I prefer, but he’s quite simply a football player. He wants the ball in his hands when the pressure is on, is willing to take the team on his shoulders and is in the mold of stronger-armed and athletic quarterbacks that are finding success in today’s league. Playing well behind Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert redefines the term “well behind” as he may be 12 games away from getting a shot to produce. He’s been so-so in camp and the likelihood is that he won’t get an opportunity this year, but he’s one of my favorite longer term sleeper candidates. He isn’t a “must add” at this time, but certainly a “must watch.”

Kenjon Barner, RB CAR

Barner is not the typical type of runner that you will find on my list. He’s not a carry the load player, is of a slight build, is oft-injured and is in a system behind two veteran runners. Any of these alone is usually enough for me to stay away. There’s just something special about Barner when the football is in his hands, not to mention that he’s playing behind the aging veteran DeAngelo Williams and the never-healthy Jonathan Stewart. In an offense lacking dynamic outside of quarterback Cam Newton, the fit for Barner is somewhat obvious. Every time I get this notion out of my head about Barner being a worthy sleeper candidate, especially in PPR formats, I see more of that dynamic I look for in difference-making backs. He’s a flyer, but a worthy one until we have a reason to remove that title.

Author
Recent Posts

Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

Latest posts by Jeff Haverlack (see all)